Points Model — Performance
Today's board · Pick historyAll players
59.4%
26,569-18,152
Book favorite
59.2%
baseline, same players
Top picks · 66%+
68.3%
4,163-1,933
Strong picks · 61%+
63.5%
7,042-4,054
Lean picks · 56%+
58.7%
7,511-5,274
Accuracy over time top, strong and lean picks · walk-forward backtest
By tier
| Tier | Record | Accuracy | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top | 4,163-1,933 | 68.3% | -262.7 | -4.3% |
| Strong | 7,042-4,054 | 63.5% | -525.0 | -4.7% |
| Lean | 7,511-5,274 | 58.7% | -665.7 | -5.2% |
| Toss-up | 7,853-6,891 | 53.3% | -850.0 | -5.8% |
By minimum confidence pickier = more accurate, fewer picks
| Confidence | Record | Accuracy | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%+ | 26,569-18,152 | 59.4% | -2,303.4 | -5.2% |
| 55%+ | 20,177-12,390 | 62.0% | -1,565.1 | -4.8% |
| 58%+ | 15,771-9,095 | 63.4% | -1,212.0 | -4.9% |
| 60%+ | 12,751-7,014 | 64.5% | -946.2 | -4.8% |
| 62%+ | 9,633-5,019 | 65.7% | -670.1 | -4.6% |
| 64%+ | 6,788-3,317 | 67.2% | -416.8 | -4.1% |
| 66%+ | 4,170-1,936 | 68.3% | -262.5 | -4.3% |
| 68%+ | 2,223-981 | 69.4% | -154.4 | -4.8% |
| 70%+ | 1,115-431 | 72.1% | -54.1 | -3.5% |
By pick all players
| Pick | Record | Accuracy | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OVER | 9,235-6,611 | 58.3% | -736.9 | -4.7% |
| UNDER | 17,334-11,541 | 60.0% | -1,566.4 | -5.4% |
By line all players
| Line | Record | Accuracy | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 25,075-17,249 | 59.2% | -2,203.0 | -5.2% |
| 1.5 | 1,494-903 | 62.3% | -100.3 | -4.2% |
By position all players
| Position | Record | Accuracy | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 6,357-3,949 | 61.7% | -481.0 | -4.7% |
| F | 20,212-14,203 | 58.7% | -1,822.3 | -5.3% |
By month all players
| Month | Record | Accuracy | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12 | 1,821-1,251 | 59.3% | -102.0 | -3.3% |
| 2025-01 | 1,847-1,312 | 58.5% | -166.3 | -5.3% |
| 2025-02 | 1,088-817 | 57.1% | -152.2 | -8.0% |
| 2025-03 | 2,255-1,538 | 59.5% | -169.4 | -4.5% |
| 2025-04 | 1,582-1,131 | 58.3% | -171.2 | -6.3% |
| 2025-05 | 528-335 | 61.2% | -47.4 | -5.5% |
| 2025-06 | 104-65 | 61.5% | -12.4 | -7.3% |
| 2025-10 | 1,711-1,178 | 59.2% | -117.6 | -4.1% |
| 2025-11 | 2,176-1,483 | 59.5% | -160.7 | -4.4% |
| 2025-12 | 2,172-1,477 | 59.5% | -171.5 | -4.7% |
| 2026-01 | 2,314-1,620 | 58.8% | -228.7 | -5.8% |
| 2026-02 | 659-405 | 61.9% | -19.8 | -1.9% |
| 2026-03 | 2,490-1,713 | 59.2% | -279.3 | -6.6% |
| 2026-04 | 1,813-1,214 | 59.9% | -174.0 | -5.7% |
| 2026-05 | 574-346 | 62.4% | -60.5 | -6.6% |
| 2026-06 | 99-78 | 55.9% | -30.5 | -17.2% |
| 2026-09 | 62-60 | 50.8% | -20.2 | -16.6% |
| 2026-10 | 2,313-1,472 | 61.1% | -119.0 | -3.1% |
| 2026-11 | 961-657 | 59.4% | -100.8 | -6.2% |
Calibration confidence vs how often the pick won
| Confidence | Picks | Predicted | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50%–54% | 9,650 | 52.0% | 52.1% |
| 54%–58% | 10,205 | 56.0% | 56.6% |
| 58%–62% | 10,214 | 60.0% | 60.1% |
| 62%–66% | 8,546 | 63.9% | 63.9% |
| 66%–70% | 4,560 | 67.6% | 67.0% |
| 70%+ | 1,546 | 72.3% | 72.1% |
Walk-forward backtest report
2024-12-01 → 2026-11-14 · 44,721 Hard Rock closing lines · run 2026-11-15
| Method | Accuracy | Log loss |
|---|---|---|
| Points model (stats × market blend) | 59.4% | 0.66912 |
| Hard Rock favorite | 59.2% | 0.66944 |
| Stats model alone | 59.0% | 0.67160 |
| Always under | 53.5% | — |
- Model accuracy − Hard Rock favorite
- +0.19 pts 95% CI [-0.01, +0.39]
- Share of lines that went over
- 46.5%
- What this means
- Hard Rock's close is hard to beat on a near-even line: the blend is a fraction of a point more accurate than simply taking the favorite. The real lift comes from confidence — the model's ratings were accurate in every band, so the top tier is right about two times in three.