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← Models / Points Model — Performance

Points Model — Performance

Today's board · Pick history

Reading the Performance Page

Live vs backtest

Live is every pick made before puck drop since tracking began. Backtest replays 2024-25 onward month by month: the model is rebuilt using only games before each month, then picks that month at Hard Rock's closing lines. Nothing in a month's picks has seen that month.

Accuracy

The share of picks that won. Every player Hard Rock lines gets a pick, at the line closest to even money, so the all-players number is held near 60% by design — those bets are close to coin flips. The tiers show what happens when the model is selective.

The baseline

Book favorite is what you would hit by always taking the side Hard Rock prices as more likely. It is a strong baseline; the model has to beat it to add anything.

Units & ROI

A flat 1-unit bet on every pick at Hard Rock's price. High-confidence picks are usually priced as favorites, so accuracy and profit are different questions — a 68% win rate at −200 loses money.

Calibration

When the model says 65%, do those picks win about 65% of the time? The closer the two columns, the more the confidence number can be trusted.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live (0 graded) Backtest
All players
—
0-0
Book favorite
—
baseline, same players
Top picks · 66%+
—
0-0
Strong picks · 61%+
—
0-0
Lean picks · 56%+
—
0-0
Only 0 live picks are graded so far — too few to judge. The backtest is the better guide until a few hundred are in.
Accuracy over time top, strong and lean picks · live

No graded picks yet.

By tier
TierRecordAccuracyUnitsROI
Top0-0—0.0—
Strong0-0—0.0—
Lean0-0—0.0—
Toss-up0-0—0.0—
By minimum confidence pickier = more accurate, fewer picks
ConfidenceRecordAccuracyUnitsROI
50%+0-0—0.0—
55%+0-0—0.0—
58%+0-0—0.0—
60%+0-0—0.0—
62%+0-0—0.0—
64%+0-0—0.0—
66%+0-0—0.0—
68%+0-0—0.0—
70%+0-0—0.0—
By pick all players
PickRecordAccuracyUnitsROI
No graded picks yet.
By line all players
LineRecordAccuracyUnitsROI
No graded picks yet.
By position all players
PositionRecordAccuracyUnitsROI
No graded picks yet.
By month all players
MonthRecordAccuracyUnitsROI
No graded picks yet.
Calibration confidence vs how often the pick won
ConfidencePicksPredictedWon
No graded picks yet.
Walk-forward backtest report 2024-12-01 → 2026-11-14 · 44,721 Hard Rock closing lines · run 2026-11-15
MethodAccuracyLog loss
Points model (stats × market blend)59.4%0.66912
Hard Rock favorite59.2%0.66944
Stats model alone59.0%0.67160
Always under53.5%—
Model accuracy − Hard Rock favorite
+0.19 pts 95% CI [-0.01, +0.39]
Share of lines that went over
46.5%
What this means
Hard Rock's close is hard to beat on a near-even line: the blend is a fraction of a point more accurate than simply taking the favorite. The real lift comes from confidence — the model's ratings were accurate in every band, so the top tier is right about two times in three.