← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2026-10-13
Matthew Wood
 NSH vs VGK UNDER 1.5 best +110 54.2% 44.6% +13.8% 0 W +1.10 —
2026-10-13
Ross Colton
 NSH vs VGK UNDER 1.5 best +105 54.3% 45.5% +11.3% 0 W +1.05 —
2026-10-13
Isak Rosen
 WPG vs MIN UNDER 1.5 best -115 59.3% 50.0% +10.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Neal Pionk
 WPG vs MIN UNDER 1.5 best +150 43.4% 37.5% +8.5% 1 W +1.50 —
2026-10-13
Kyle Connor
 WPG vs MIN UNDER 3.5 best -105 54.1% 48.0% +5.6% 3 W +0.95 —
2026-10-13
Kyle Palmieri
 NYI vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.2% 48.6% +7.0% 2 W +0.87 —
2026-10-13
Adam Jiricek
 STL @ OTT UNDER 1.5 best -120 58.4% 47.6% +7.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Jimmy Snuggerud
 STL @ OTT UNDER 2.5 best -115 58.1% 50.0% +8.7% 2 W +0.87 —
2026-10-13
Brandon Hagel
 TBL @ NYR UNDER 3.5 best -135 60.5% 53.5% +5.3% 1 W +0.74 —
2026-10-13
Bobby McMann
 SEA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best -110 55.4% 49.0% +5.8% 2 W +0.91 —
2026-10-13
Jared McCann
 SEA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best -160 66.3% 57.5% +7.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs WSH UNDER 2.5 best -105 54.0% 47.5% +5.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
William Carrier
 CAR vs WSH UNDER 1.5 best -125 60.5% 52.0% +8.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Noah Dobson
 MTL vs BUF UNDER 2.5 best -175 68.1% 58.3% +7.0% 2 W +0.57 —
2026-10-13
Kent Johnson
 CBJ vs FLA UNDER 1.5 best +105 52.4% 45.5% +7.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Seth Jones
 FLA @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 best +125 48.0% 41.7% +7.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Viktor Arvidsson
 DET vs NJD UNDER 2.5 best +115 51.4% 43.4% +10.6% 1 W +1.15 —
2026-10-13
Dylan Larkin
 DET vs NJD UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.2% 41.4% +6.3% 2 W +1.25 —
2026-10-13
Evan Bouchard
 EDM @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean +105 51.2% 45.5% +4.9% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-10-13
Adrian Kempe
 LAK vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.1% 43.4% +3.5% 1 W +1.15 —
2026-10-13
Beckett Sennecke
 ANA vs CGY UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.9% 41.4% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Matt Coronato
 CGY @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.4% 50.0% +3.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA vs CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.9% 39.8% +3.2% 0 W +1.35 —
2026-10-13
Dylan Guenther
 UTA vs TOR UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.5% 54.5% +3.8% 2 W +0.71 —
2026-10-13
Filip Forsberg
 NSH vs VGK UNDER 3.5 lean -175 66.6% 59.4% +4.6% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Tomas Hertl
 VGK @ NSH UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.1% 39.6% +3.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
T.J. Hughes
 COL @ DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.4% 41.4% +2.1% 1 W +1.25 —
2026-10-13
Sam Malinski
 COL @ DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.2% 43.4% +3.5% 0 W +1.15 —
2026-10-13
Cole Perfetti
 WPG vs MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.7% 49.1% +2.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Ben Kindel
 PIT @ CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.5% 44.6% +4.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Roman Kantserov
 CHI vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -145 60.9% 55.4% +3.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Connor Bedard
 CHI vs PIT UNDER 3.5 lean -180 65.7% 60.2% +2.2% 3 W +0.56 —
2026-10-13
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -160 64.1% 57.5% +4.1% 1 W +0.63 —
2026-10-13
Evgeni Malkin
 PIT @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.3% 54.1% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Jake DeBrusk
 VAN @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean -125 56.7% 52.0% +2.1% 2 W +0.80 —
2026-10-13
Bo Horvat
 NYI vs VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -150 61.7% 56.3% +2.8% 3 W +0.67 —
2026-10-13
Anthony Cirelli
 TBL @ NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.9% 43.7% +2.9% 1 W +1.15 —
2026-10-13
Porter Martone
 PHI vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -145 61.4% 53.6% +3.8% 1 W +0.69 —
2026-10-13
Mackie Samoskevich
 SEA @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.8% +2.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Owen Tippett
 PHI vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.5% +2.5% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-10-13
Cole Hutson
 WSH @ CAR UNDER 1.5 lean -105 53.7% 47.5% +4.8% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-10-13
Ryan Leonard
 WSH @ CAR UNDER 2.5 lean -200 69.6% 62.0% +4.4% 2 W +0.50 —
2026-10-13
Jalen Chatfield
 CAR vs WSH UNDER 1.5 lean -140 59.8% 54.5% +2.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR vs WSH UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.2% 45.5% +2.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Mark Jankowski
 CAR vs WSH UNDER 1.5 lean -155 62.8% 54.3% +3.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Kaiden Guhle
 MTL vs BUF UNDER 1.5 lean -220 70.7% 60.2% +2.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Brady Tkachuk
 FLA @ CBJ UNDER 3.5 lean -165 64.5% 58.4% +3.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.4% 44.8% +4.7% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-13
Alex DeBrincat
 DET vs NJD UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.5% 54.5% +3.8% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-12
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN vs VGK UNDER 3.5 best -145 63.0% 55.4% +6.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-12
Sandis Vilmanis
 FLA @ BUF UNDER 1.5 best -105 60.7% 48.0% +18.4% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-10-12
Trevor Connelly
 VGK @ MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.7% 54.9% +3.1% 0 W +0.65 —
2026-10-12
Shane Pinto
 OTT @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.3% 60.9% +2.1% 1 W +0.54 —
2026-10-12
Warren Foegele
 OTT @ NJD UNDER 1.5 lean -110 54.7% 49.0% +4.4% 1 W +0.91 —
2026-10-11
Matvei Michkov
 PHI vs CAR UNDER 2.5 best -195 70.1% 61.8% +6.1% 0 W +0.51 —
2026-10-11
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best +105 54.6% 45.5% +12.0% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-10-11
Sebastian Aho
 CAR @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best +100 54.8% 46.5% +9.5% 2 W +1.00 —
2026-10-11
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best +115 50.9% 43.7% +9.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-11
Cole Hutson
 WSH vs SEA UNDER 1.5 best +130 47.4% 40.6% +9.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-11
Jackson Blake
 CAR @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -160 64.0% 57.5% +4.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-11
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean -115 55.1% 50.0% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-11
Will Cuylle
 NYR vs VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.2% 42.5% +3.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-11
Pavel Dorofeyev
 NYR vs VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -170 65.0% 58.6% +3.3% 2 W +0.59 —
2026-10-11
Ryan Leonard
 WSH vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -160 64.0% 57.5% +4.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-11
Matty Beniers
 SEA @ WSH OVER 1.5 lean +125 45.7% 41.7% +2.9% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-10-11
Aliaksei Protas
 WSH vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.7% 60.9% +2.8% 1 W +0.54 —
2026-10-11
Boone Jenner
 WSH vs SEA OVER 1.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.4% +2.1% 5 W +1.15 —
2026-10-10
Raphael Lavoie
 VGK vs LAK UNDER 1.5 best -175 69.9% 57.2% +9.8% 1 W +0.57 —
2026-10-10
Brayden McNabb
 VGK vs LAK UNDER 1.5 best -115 60.5% 50.0% +13.1% 0 W +0.87 —
2026-10-10
Beckett Sennecke
 ANA @ CGY UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.2% 43.4% +5.7% 2 W +1.15 —
2026-10-10
Simon Nemec
 CGY vs ANA UNDER 1.5 best +100 53.1% 46.5% +6.1% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-10
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ CGY UNDER 3.5 best -105 56.4% 48.0% +10.0% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-10-10
Yegor Sharangovich
 CGY vs ANA UNDER 1.5 best +135 46.8% 39.8% +10.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Brayden Point
 TBL @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best -145 62.9% 55.4% +6.2% 1 W +0.69 —
2026-10-10
Auston Matthews
 TOR @ COL UNDER 3.5 best -110 55.3% 49.0% +5.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Gabriel Landeskog
 COL vs TOR OVER 1.5 best -145 63.2% 55.4% +6.8% 2 W +0.69 —
2026-10-10
Adam Jiricek
 STL vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 best +105 57.5% 45.5% +17.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Kent Johnson
 CBJ @ STL UNDER 1.5 best +100 54.9% 45.5% +9.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Valeri Nichushkin
 CBJ @ STL UNDER 1.5 best +125 47.3% 41.7% +6.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ CHI UNDER 2.5 best +110 53.4% 44.6% +12.1% 2 W +1.10 —
2026-10-10
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR @ CHI UNDER 1.5 best +120 49.6% 42.5% +9.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Ben Kindel
 PIT vs DAL UNDER 1.5 best +120 49.2% 42.8% +8.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Arttu Hyry
 DAL @ PIT UNDER 1.5 best +105 58.5% 45.5% +20.0% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-10-10
Nils Lundkvist
 DAL @ PIT UNDER 1.5 best -135 66.0% 53.5% +14.9% 0 W +0.74 —
2026-10-10
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ PIT UNDER 3.5 best -120 57.9% 51.0% +6.2% 3 W +0.83 —
2026-10-10
Sam Steel
 DAL @ PIT UNDER 1.5 best -140 62.9% 54.5% +7.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Jamie Benn
 DAL @ PIT UNDER 1.5 best +100 56.9% 46.5% +13.9% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-10
Cole Caufield
 MTL vs DET UNDER 3.5 best -125 61.2% 52.0% +10.1% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Noah Dobson
 MTL vs DET UNDER 1.5 best +145 44.2% 38.2% +8.2% 1 W +1.45 —
2026-10-10
Viktor Arvidsson
 DET @ MTL UNDER 2.5 best -105 54.9% 47.5% +7.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ BUF UNDER 3.5 best -145 64.1% 55.4% +8.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Mikhail Sergachev
 UTA @ BUF UNDER 2.5 best -185 68.6% 60.9% +5.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA vs MIN UNDER 2.5 best +115 48.9% 43.4% +5.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Vasily Podkolzin
 EDM @ SJS UNDER 2.5 best -130 60.0% 50.0% +6.2% 1 W +0.77 —
2026-10-10
Evan Bouchard
 EDM @ SJS UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.3% 42.2% +6.2% 1 W +1.20 —
2026-10-10
Kasperi Kapanen
 EDM @ SJS UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.1% 40.9% +6.0% 1 W +1.30 —
2026-10-10
James Hagens
 BOS vs PHI UNDER 1.5 best -125 59.2% 52.0% +6.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Pavel Zacha
 BOS vs PHI UNDER 1.5 best +130 45.8% 40.6% +5.3% 1 W +1.30 —
2026-10-10
Trevor Connelly
 VGK vs LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.4% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Tomas Hertl
 VGK vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -190 68.0% 61.6% +3.7% 0 W +0.53 —
1 2 3 4 5 6