← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
5-9
0 void · 9 pending
Units
-2.94u
ROI
-21.0%
expected +3.7%
Avg CLV
-1.08 pts
14% positive of 14
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2026-10-22 PIT vs FLA UNDER 2.5 best -175 67.0% 58.9% +5.3% — pending — —
2026-10-22 NJD vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.9% 40.9% +3.2% — pending — —
2026-10-22 UTA @ SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.0% 38.9% +3.2% — pending — —
2026-10-22 EDM vs CAR UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.7% 43.4% +2.6% — pending — —
2026-10-22 PIT vs FLA UNDER 1.5 lean -195 67.7% 61.8% +2.4% — pending — —
2026-10-22 FLA @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.6% 45.5% +3.7% — pending — —
2026-10-22 FLA @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.8% 49.0% +2.8% — pending — —
2026-10-22 ANA @ NJD UNDER 3.5 lean -110 54.8% 47.0% +4.7% — pending — —
2026-10-22 OTT vs SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.7% 43.7% +2.5% — pending — —
2026-10-21 PHI @ BUF UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.7% 38.2% +7.0% 1 W +1.45 0.0
2026-10-21 BUF vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.0% 39.8% +3.4% 3 L -1.00 0.0
2026-10-21 OTT vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.0% 57.5% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 0.0
2026-10-20 VGK vs TBL UNDER 1.5 lean -165 65.3% 58.4% +4.8% 2 L -1.00 0.0
2026-10-20 VGK vs TBL UNDER 1.5 lean -160 63.2% 57.5% +2.7% 2 L -1.00 0.0
2026-10-20 MTL vs SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +105 51.2% 45.9% +5.0% 0 W +1.05 -1.3
2026-10-20 MTL vs SJS UNDER 1.5 lean -155 62.3% 56.7% +2.6% 3 L -1.00 -1.2
2026-10-20 ANA @ NYI UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.4% 54.5% +3.5% 2 W +0.71 -9.9
2026-10-20 MTL vs SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -170 64.8% 59.2% +3.0% 4 L -1.00 -3.4
2026-10-20 SJS @ MTL OVER 1.5 lean +140 43.2% 37.4% +3.8% 2 W +1.40 0.0
2026-10-20 CAR @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.0% 42.5% +3.4% 4 L -1.00 0.0
2026-10-20 DET @ SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.7% 38.4% +2.1% 0 W +1.45 0.0
2026-10-19 ANA @ NYR UNDER 3.5 best -125 58.9% 52.0% +6.0% 5 L -1.00 +0.4
2026-10-19 COL @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.8% 43.4% +2.7% 2 L -1.00 +0.3