← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-01-09 NJD @ NYR UNDER 2.5 lean -155 63.1% 56.7% +3.7% 1 W +0.65 —
2025-01-09 NJD @ NYR UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.2% 43.4% +3.6% 2 W +1.15 —
2025-01-09 NYR vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.0% 49.0% +3.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09 BOS @ TBL UNDER 3.5 lean +120 47.3% 42.5% +4.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09 BOS @ TBL UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.1% 46.5% +4.2% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-01-09 BUF @ OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -130 57.7% 53.1% +2.1% 1 W +0.77 —
2025-01-09 BUF @ OTT UNDER 3.5 lean -155 62.3% 57.2% +2.5% 3 W +0.65 —
2025-01-08 WSH vs VAN UNDER 1.5 best +135 45.1% 39.6% +5.9% 0 W +1.35 —
2025-01-08 WSH vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best -125 59.6% 52.0% +7.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-08 WSH vs VAN UNDER 3.5 best -120 59.2% 51.0% +8.4% 3 W +0.83 —
2025-01-08 FLA @ UTA UNDER 3.5 lean -170 65.9% 59.2% +4.7% 2 W +0.59 —
2025-01-08 FLA @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.3% +2.8% 2 W +1.10 —
2025-01-08 COL @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.7% 53.1% +3.8% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 TOR @ PHI UNDER 3.5 best +115 50.5% 43.4% +8.6% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-01-07 DAL @ NYR UNDER 2.5 best -115 56.3% 50.0% +5.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 NYR vs DAL UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.6% 39.8% +7.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 OTT @ DET UNDER 3.5 best +115 49.7% 43.7% +6.8% 3 W +1.15 —
2025-01-07 CAR @ TBL UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.4% 45.5% +5.3% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-01-07 SJS vs VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.7% 45.5% +3.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 CGY @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.1% 51.0% +2.8% 2 W +0.83 —
2025-01-07 CGY @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.3% 60.2% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 CGY @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.9% 51.0% +2.5% 2 W +0.83 —
2025-01-07 CGY @ ANA UNDER 3.5 lean -110 53.9% 49.0% +3.0% 3 W +0.91 —
2025-01-07 WPG vs NSH UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.6% 43.7% +4.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 NSH @ WPG UNDER 3.5 lean -130 57.7% 52.5% +2.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 STL @ MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -140 61.2% 54.5% +5.0% 1 W +0.71 —
2025-01-07 MIN vs STL UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.0% 54.5% +2.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 STL @ MIN UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.7% 44.6% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 MIN vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.9% +2.3% 2 W +1.30 —
2025-01-07 PHI vs TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.2% 39.8% +3.8% 8 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 TOR @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -180 65.9% 60.2% +2.5% 0 W +0.56 —
2025-01-07 PHI vs TOR UNDER 3.5 lean -165 64.1% 58.4% +3.0% 2 W +0.61 —
2025-01-07 DAL @ NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.8% +4.3% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 NYR vs DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -165 64.6% 58.4% +3.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 OTT @ DET UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.6% 40.6% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 OTT @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.7% 60.9% +2.7% 1 W +0.54 —
2025-01-07 OTT @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.2% 56.3% +2.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 DET vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.7% 42.5% +2.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 BOS vs EDM UNDER 3.5 lean +115 48.6% 43.7% +4.4% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-01-07 EDM @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +105 51.0% 45.5% +4.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 EDM @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -175 65.4% 59.4% +2.8% 1 W +0.57 —
2025-01-07 BOS vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -125 56.9% 52.0% +2.4% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-01-07 CAR @ TBL UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.8% 38.9% +2.7% 0 W +1.40 —
2025-01-07 CAR @ TBL UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.5% 45.5% +3.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-06 NJD @ SEA UNDER 2.5 best +115 50.9% 43.4% +9.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-06 NJD @ SEA UNDER 2.5 best -175 67.5% 59.4% +6.1% 2 W +0.57 —
2025-01-06 FLA @ COL UNDER 2.5 best +125 49.4% 41.4% +11.0% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-01-06 FLA @ COL UNDER 2.5 best -120 57.4% 51.0% +5.3% 2 W +0.83 —
2025-01-06 FLA @ COL UNDER 2.5 best +105 52.0% 45.5% +6.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-06 WSH @ BUF UNDER 3.5 best -115 58.7% 50.0% +9.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-06 NJD @ SEA UNDER 3.5 lean -105 52.8% 48.0% +3.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-06 NJD @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.8% 48.0% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-06 COL vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.3% 39.8% +4.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-06 VAN @ MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.3% 39.8% +4.1% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-01-06 WSH @ BUF UNDER 2.5 lean -145 60.4% 55.4% +2.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-05 TBL @ ANA UNDER 2.5 best -125 58.8% 52.0% +5.8% 8 L -1.00 —
2025-01-05 PHI @ TOR UNDER 1.5 best +140 44.0% 38.9% +5.5% 1 W +1.40 —
2025-01-05 PHI @ TOR UNDER 2.5 best +125 48.8% 41.7% +9.8% 1 W +1.25 —
2025-01-05 TOR vs PHI UNDER 3.5 best +125 49.4% 41.7% +11.1% 3 W +1.25 —
2025-01-05 CAR vs PIT UNDER 2.5 best +100 52.6% 46.9% +5.1% 0 W +1.00 —
2025-01-05 CAR vs PIT UNDER 1.5 best +105 54.0% 45.9% +10.8% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-01-05 CAR vs PIT UNDER 2.5 best +115 50.5% 43.7% +8.7% 2 W +1.15 —
2025-01-05 CAR vs PIT UNDER 2.5 best +120 49.3% 42.5% +8.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-05 CAR vs PIT UNDER 1.5 best +130 47.5% 40.9% +9.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-05 CAR vs PIT UNDER 2.5 best -120 61.0% 51.0% +11.9% 1 W +0.83 —
2025-01-05 NYI @ BOS UNDER 2.5 best -120 57.6% 51.0% +5.5% 2 W +0.83 —
2025-01-05 NYI @ BOS UNDER 2.5 best +105 52.2% 45.5% +7.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-05 CHI vs NYR UNDER 1.5 best +150 47.5% 37.5% +18.7% 0 W +1.50 —
2025-01-05 NYR @ CHI UNDER 2.5 best -115 60.1% 50.0% +12.3% 1 W +0.87 —
2025-01-05 TBL @ ANA UNDER 3.5 lean -125 57.6% 52.0% +3.7% 3 W +0.80 —
2025-01-05 TOR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.3% 46.5% +2.6% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-01-05 TOR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -190 67.2% 61.1% +2.6% 1 W +0.53 —
2025-01-05 CAR vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.3% 51.0% +3.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-05 CAR vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.5% 38.9% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-05 CAR vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.6% +2.5% 0 W +1.10 —
2025-01-05 BOS vs NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.7% 37.5% +4.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-05 BOS vs NYI UNDER 4.5 lean -160 63.3% 57.5% +2.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-05 BOS vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.9% +3.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-05 NYR @ CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.4% 42.5% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-05 NYR @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.2% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-01-05 NYR @ CHI UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.8% 54.5% +4.1% 2 W +0.71 —
2025-01-05 NYR @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.7% 46.9% +3.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04 TBL @ LAK UNDER 3.5 best -155 65.2% 56.7% +7.3% 3 W +0.65 —
2025-01-04 DAL vs UTA UNDER 2.5 best +125 46.9% 41.7% +5.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04 DAL vs UTA UNDER 1.5 best +135 45.0% 39.8% +5.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04 DAL vs UTA UNDER 2.5 best -110 55.7% 49.0% +6.4% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-01-04 MIN @ CAR UNDER 2.5 best +135 46.1% 39.8% +8.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04 CAR vs MIN UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.8% 43.4% +7.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04 CAR vs MIN UNDER 1.5 best +115 49.9% 43.7% +7.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04 CAR vs MIN UNDER 2.5 best -125 62.4% 52.0% +12.3% 1 W +0.80 —
2025-01-04 BOS @ TOR UNDER 3.5 best +120 48.1% 42.2% +5.8% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04 NYR @ WSH UNDER 2.5 best +135 44.8% 39.6% +5.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04 WSH vs NYR UNDER 3.5 best -115 56.2% 50.0% +5.1% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04 EDM @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -135 58.6% 54.1% +2.0% 2 W +0.74 —
2025-01-04 SEA vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.9% 48.5% +4.9% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-01-04 EDM @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +105 51.1% 45.5% +4.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04 EDM @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.7% 60.2% +3.7% 2 W +0.56 —
2025-01-04 BUF @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.5% 40.6% +4.7% 0 W +1.30 —
2025-01-04 BUF @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.8% +2.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04 TBL @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -195 68.2% 61.8% +3.1% 4 L -1.00 —
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