SOG Picks ?

The six checks

A player is a pick only when his Hard Rock Bet shots-on-goal line passes all six:

• Top-4 shooter on his team — ranks 1st to 4th on his team in shots on goal per game (Prop Finder's Team Rank; he needs a third of his team's games to hold a spot).
• Average at least 0.5 over the line — e.g. a 1.5 line needs a 2.00+ season average.
• L5 hit rate 80%+ — over the line in at least 4 of his last 5 games.
• Soft opponent — the opponent ranks 15th or worse in shots on goal allowed per game (32nd = allows the most).
• Line of 0.5, 1.5 or 2.5 — 3.5 and higher lines are skipped.
• Over price -170 or better — -170 and plus money qualify; heavier juice like -175 or -200 doesn't.

Every number is the same one Prop Finder shows. Until a team has played 5 games, its players' averages and team ranks use last season; opponent ranks switch to this season after 10 games. Overs only.

When picks appear and lock

Picks refresh every 15 minutes on game days as Hard Rock posts and moves lines. A player who stops passing (or whose line is pulled, or whose price moves past -170) before puck drop drops off; he comes back if he passes again. At puck drop the pick locks — the locked line and price are what get graded.

Grading

1 unit flat on every pick at the locked Hard Rock over price. Overtime counts, shootouts don't; a player who doesn't take a shift is a void. History is the live record from launch on.

Backtest

The Backtest tab replays the six checks on every game of the '26-27 season so far, using only games played before each date and Hard Rock's closing line and price. It's rebuilt every morning. A small sample — read it as a sanity check, not proof.