← Models / SOG Picks

How SOG Picks Work

The four checks

A player is a pick only when his Hard Rock Bet shots-on-goal line passes all four:

  • Top-4 shooter on his team — ranks 1st to 4th on his team in shots on goal per game (Prop Finder's Team Rank; he needs a third of his team's games to hold a spot).
  • Average at least 0.5 over the line — e.g. a 1.5 line needs a 2.00+ season average.
  • L5 hit rate 80%+ — over the line in at least 4 of his last 5 games.
  • Soft opponent — the opponent ranks 15th or worse in shots on goal allowed per game (32nd = allows the most).

Every number is the same one Prop Finder shows. Until a team has played 5 games, its players' averages and team ranks use last season; opponent ranks switch to this season after 10 games. Overs only.

When picks appear and lock

Picks refresh every 15 minutes on game days as Hard Rock posts and moves lines. A player who stops passing (or whose line is pulled) before puck drop drops off; he comes back if he passes again. At puck drop the pick locks — the locked line and price are what get graded.

Grading

1 unit flat on every pick at the locked Hard Rock over price. Overtime counts, shootouts don't; a player who doesn't take a shift is a void. History is the live record from launch on.

Backtest

The Backtest tab replays the four checks on every game of the '26-27 season so far, using only games played before each date and Hard Rock's closing line and price. It's rebuilt every morning. A small sample — read it as a sanity check, not proof.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Backtest · '26-27 season. Checks replayed as of each game date (only earlier games count), graded at Hard Rock's closing line and price. Rebuilt every morning.
Record
38-48
44.2% wins
Units
-20.77
1u flat per pick
ROI
-24.2%
Voids
0
did not play

By line

LinePicksRecordUnitsROI
Over 1.56027-33 -15.85 -26.4%
Over 2.52211-11 -0.92 -4.2%
Over 3.540-4 -4.00 -100.0%

Picks

DatePlayerGameLinePriceTeamAvgL5OppResult
Oct 23 MTL @ CHI o1.5 -200 4th 2.33 100% 28th L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 23 CHI vs MTL o1.5 -110 2nd 2.00 80% 20th L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 23 TBL @ COL o2.5 -175 1st 4.56 80% 17th L 2 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 22 FLA @ PIT o1.5 -130 3rd 2.80 80% 18th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 22 BOS vs NSH o1.5 -145 2nd 2.60 100% 26th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 22 NYR @ TOR o1.5 -160 2nd 2.45 80% 29th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 22 NSH @ BOS o1.5 -165 3rd 2.25 80% 21st L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 22 NYR @ TOR o1.5 -160 3rd 2.09 80% 29th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 22 NSH @ BOS o1.5 -190 4th 2.00 80% 21st W 3 SOG · +0.53u
Oct 22 LAK @ NYI o2.5 +105 2nd 3.14 80% 15th W 4 SOG · +1.05u
Oct 22 DAL vs WPG o1.5 -105 3rd 2.67 80% 20th W 3 SOG · +0.95u
Oct 22 MIN @ CGY o2.5 -160 3rd 3.30 80% 27th W 4 SOG · +0.63u
Oct 21 BUF vs PHI o2.5 +100 2nd 3.17 80% 31st W 4 SOG · +1.00u
Oct 20 TOR @ CBJ o1.5 -165 2nd 3.00 80% 21st W 2 SOG · +0.61u
Oct 20 SJS @ MTL o1.5 -185 2nd 2.67 80% 17th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 20 SJS @ MTL o1.5 -110 3rd 2.50 100% 17th L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 20 LAK @ WSH o2.5 +140 1st 3.17 80% 19th W 3 SOG · +1.40u
Oct 20 TOR @ CBJ o2.5 +110 1st 3.10 80% 21st L 2 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 20 DAL vs BOS o1.5 -175 2nd 2.88 80% 28th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 20 STL vs WPG o2.5 +125 1st 3.63 80% 18th L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 19 SJS @ TOR o1.5 -135 4th 2.43 100% 30th W 3 SOG · +0.74u
Oct 19 TOR vs SJS o2.5 -105 1st 3.33 80% 26th L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 19 TOR vs SJS o2.5 -145 2nd 3.11 80% 26th W 3 SOG · +0.69u
Oct 18 CBJ @ MIN o1.5 -170 1st 3.00 100% 23rd W 2 SOG · +0.59u
Oct 17 FLA vs SEA o1.5 -145 3rd 3.00 100% 25th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 17 FLA vs SEA o1.5 -160 3rd 3.00 80% 25th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 17 DAL @ CHI o1.5 -190 1st 3.00 80% 31st W 2 SOG · +0.53u
Oct 17 SJS @ DET o1.5 -160 2nd 2.86 80% 15th L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 17 NYI @ TOR o2.5 -165 2nd 3.43 80% 32nd L 2 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 17 MTL vs BUF o1.5 -160 4th 2.29 100% 23rd W 3 SOG · +0.63u
Oct 17 MTL vs BUF o2.5 -115 2nd 3.14 80% 23rd L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 17 DET vs SJS o2.5 -115 3rd 3.00 80% 27th L 2 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 17 STL @ NSH o2.5 -125 1st 3.86 80% 26th L 2 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 17 LAK vs BOS o1.5 -135 4th 2.80 100% 28th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 17 LAK vs BOS o2.5 -175 1st 3.20 80% 28th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 16 BOS @ ANA o1.5 -160 2nd 2.71 80% 20th W 2 SOG · +0.63u
Oct 15 NJD vs NYR o1.5 -185 4th 3.17 100% 21st L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 15 TOR vs BUF o1.5 -175 3rd 2.86 100% 23rd W 5 SOG · +0.57u
Oct 15 FLA vs VAN o1.5 -145 3rd 2.71 100% 29th W 5 SOG · +0.69u
Oct 15 BUF @ TOR o1.5 -140 3rd 2.57 80% 32nd L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 15 STL @ MIN o1.5 -175 1st 3.83 100% 24th W 4 SOG · +0.57u
Oct 15 SJS @ NSH o1.5 -185 2nd 2.83 80% 26th W 3 SOG · +0.54u
Oct 14 WSH vs MTL o1.5 -125 2nd 3.00 100% 17th L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 13 NJD @ DET o1.5 -160 2nd 3.40 100% 15th W 2 SOG · +0.63u
Oct 13 NJD @ DET o1.5 -200 4th 3.20 80% 15th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 13 NJD @ DET o3.5 +105 1st 4.60 80% 15th L 2 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 13 FLA @ CBJ o1.5 -160 1st 3.17 80% 22nd L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 13 FLA @ CBJ o1.5 -165 2nd 2.67 100% 22nd W 3 SOG · +0.61u
Oct 13 BUF @ MTL o3.5 +115 1st 5.00 80% 17th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 13 BUF @ MTL o1.5 -105 3rd 2.83 100% 17th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 13 MTL vs BUF o1.5 -135 4th 2.20 80% 23rd W 2 SOG · +0.74u
Oct 13 OTT vs STL o1.5 -195 1st 2.83 80% 16th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 13 OTT vs STL o1.5 -160 2nd 2.33 100% 16th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 13 PIT @ CHI o1.5 -145 1st 2.80 100% 31st W 2 SOG · +0.69u
Oct 13 PIT @ CHI o1.5 -110 3rd 2.50 80% 31st L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 13 WPG vs MIN o3.5 -125 1st 5.40 80% 24th L 3 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 13 WPG vs MIN o1.5 -160 4th 2.00 80% 24th L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 13 UTA vs TOR o2.5 -160 1st 4.00 100% 32nd L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 12 FLA @ BUF o1.5 -105 3rd 2.40 80% 23rd W 4 SOG · +0.95u
Oct 12 FLA @ BUF o2.5 +130 1st 3.20 80% 23rd W 3 SOG · +1.30u
Oct 12 VGK @ MIN o1.5 -170 3rd 2.83 80% 24th L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 12 VGK @ MIN o1.5 -115 4th 2.50 80% 24th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 11 SEA @ WSH o1.5 -185 2nd 3.00 80% 19th W 2 SOG · +0.54u
Oct 11 SEA @ WSH o2.5 -120 1st 3.60 100% 19th W 4 SOG · +0.83u
Oct 11 WSH vs SEA o1.5 -155 3rd 2.13 80% 25th W 3 SOG · +0.65u
Oct 11 NYR vs VAN o1.5 -160 2nd 2.50 80% 29th W 3 SOG · +0.63u
Oct 10 PHI @ BOS o1.5 -190 1st 2.60 80% 28th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 10 UTA @ BUF o2.5 +120 1st 4.00 80% 23rd W 4 SOG · +1.20u
Oct 10 CAR @ CHI o2.5 -145 1st 3.80 80% 31st L 2 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 10 DET @ MTL o1.5 -130 4th 2.28 80% 17th L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 9 NYR @ WSH o1.5 -180 2nd 2.80 100% 19th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 9 WSH vs NYR o1.5 -185 3rd 2.13 80% 21st W 3 SOG · +0.54u
Oct 8 UTA @ BOS o1.5 -185 4th 2.04 80% 28th L 0 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 8 TBL vs MIN o2.5 -145 2nd 3.01 100% 24th W 3 SOG · +0.69u
Oct 8 VGK vs TOR o1.5 -145 3rd 2.46 80% 32nd W 3 SOG · +0.69u
Oct 7 PIT @ WSH o1.5 -150 2nd 2.64 80% 19th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 7 COL @ WPG o3.5 -120 1st 4.38 80% 18th L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Oct 6 OTT @ DET o1.5 -200 3rd 2.43 80% 15th W 2 SOG · +0.50u
Oct 4 WPG @ DET o2.5 -160 1st 3.34 80% 15th W 5 SOG · +0.63u
Oct 4 DET vs WPG o1.5 -190 4th 2.28 80% 18th W 3 SOG · +0.53u
Oct 3 LAK @ SJS o1.5 -150 4th 2.30 80% 27th W 2 SOG · +0.67u
Oct 1 TBL @ NYR o2.5 -150 2nd 3.01 100% 21st W 3 SOG · +0.67u
Oct 1 SEA @ CGY o1.5 -190 2nd 2.25 80% 30th W 4 SOG · +0.53u
Sep 29 BOS vs NYR o1.5 -165 3rd 2.23 80% 21st L 1 SOG · -1.00u
Sep 29 NYR @ BOS o1.5 -140 3rd 2.12 80% 28th W 2 SOG · +0.71u
Sep 29 VGK vs CHI o1.5 -170 4th 2.17 100% 31st L 1 SOG · -1.00u