SOG Unders ?

The checks

A player is a pick when his Hard Rock Bet shots on goal line passes every check:

• Line — 1.5 or 2.5 (3.5+ lines lost in testing, so they're left out).
• Games — he has played at least 5 games this season.
• Line above his average — the line is at least 0.5 shots higher than his shots on goal per game this season.
• Last 5 — shown on each pick but not required right now.
• Price — the under is −170 or better (−170 passes, −175 doesn't).
• Opponent — the opponent ranks 1-24 in shots on goal allowed per game (1 = fewest, 32 = most). The 8 most shot-friendly defenses are left out — unders against them only broke even. Same ranking as Prop Finder: last season's numbers until a team has 10 games this season.

The bet is the Under at Hard Rock's under price. Picks are listed by how far the line sits above his average — the bigger the gap, the stronger the record has been.

Strong picks

A Strong tag means our SOG model also prices the under above Hard Rock's break-even. In testing those did better, but that split was found after looking at the results — treat it as a lean, not a separate system.

Where it came from

It was the one angle that held up when we tested every 2026-27 Hard Rock closing shots line against a dozen ideas (opponent shot suppression, possession, power-play demotions, game script, back-to-backs, streaks). The book prices shooters off their history; this season's lower shot rate has kept holding. It's based on a few weeks of games, and books adjust as the season goes on — the live record is the real test.

When picks appear and lock

Picks refresh every 15 minutes on game days as Hard Rock posts and moves lines. A player whose line moves out of range, whose under price gets worse than −170, or whose line is pulled drops off before puck drop; he comes back if he requalifies. At puck drop the pick locks — the locked line and price are what get graded.

Grading

1 unit flat on every pick at the locked Hard Rock under price. Overtime counts, shootouts don't; a player who doesn't take a shift is a void. History is the live record from launch on; Backtest replays this season at the closing line (only games before each date count), rebuilt every morning.