NHL Today
2:00 PM
FLA -175 5-4-2
CHI 6.5 3-7-0
5:00 PM
NYI 5.5 5-3-2
DAL -190 6-3-1
6:00 PM
MTL -115 5-3-2
WPG 5.5 4-3-3
7:00 PM
COL -240 6-4-1
NSH 6.5 3-3-4
9:00 PM
MIN -180 7-3-2
VAN 6.5 2-9-1
← Models / Assist Unders

How Assist Unders Work

The two checks

A player is a pick when his Hard Rock Bet assists line passes both:

  • Hot streak — he went over this line in at least 4 of his last 5 games (L5 hit rate 80%+; he needs 5 games).
  • Back-to-back — his team played yesterday, so tonight is the second night.

The bet is the Under at Hard Rock's under price — any line, any price. The idea: the book leans on the streak while tired legs on night two cut setups.

Where it came from

It was the one angle that held up in a study of every Hard Rock closing assists line since October 2024 (only games before each date counted). It made money in 2024-25 and 2025-26 and has kept going this season. Two cautions: loosen the streak to 3 of 5 and the edge disappears, and without the back-to-back it loses — so it depends on that exact cut. Treat the live record as the real test.

When picks appear and lock

Picks refresh every 15 minutes on game days as Hard Rock posts and moves lines. A player whose line or under price is pulled before puck drop drops off; he comes back if it returns. At puck drop the pick locks — the locked line and price are what get graded.

Grading

1 unit flat on every pick at the locked Hard Rock under price. Overtime counts, shootouts don't; a player who doesn't take a shift is a void. History is the live record from launch on; Backtest replays every Hard Rock season at the closing line, rebuilt every morning.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Backtest · every Hard Rock season. The two checks replayed as of each game date (only earlier games count), graded at Hard Rock's closing line and under price. Rebuilt every morning.
Record
320-176
64.5% wins
Units
+45.75
1u flat per pick
ROI
+9.2%
Voids
4
did not play

By season

SeasonPicksRecordWin %UnitsROI
'26-27 to date2114-7 66.7% +0.95 +4.5%
'25-26274172-99 63.5% +27.28 +10.1%
'24-25205134-70 65.7% +17.53 +8.6%

Picks · '26-27

DatePlayerGameLinePriceL5AvgResult
Oct 22 FLA @ PIT u0.5 -110 5/5 1.20 W 0 assists · +0.91u
Oct 22 FLA @ PIT u0.5 -145 5/5 1.00 W 0 assists · +0.69u
Oct 22 OTT vs SJS u0.5 +115 4/5 0.80 W 0 assists · +1.15u
Oct 20 ANA @ NYI u0.5 -195 4/5 0.86 W 0 assists · +0.51u
Oct 17 BOS @ LAK u0.5 -115 4/5 0.88 L 1 assist · -1.00u
Oct 13 OTT vs STL u0.5 -120 4/5 0.83 L 1 assist · -1.00u
Oct 13 MIN @ WPG u0.5 +120 5/5 1.17 L 1 assist · -1.00u
Oct 11 VAN @ NYR u0.5 -185 4/5 1.00 W 0 assists · +0.54u
Oct 11 CAR @ PHI u0.5 -195 5/5 1.00 W 0 assists · +0.51u
Oct 10 PIT vs DAL u0.5 -150 4/5 1.00 W 0 assists · +0.67u
Oct 10 DET @ MTL u0.5 -195 4/5 0.54 W 0 assists · +0.51u
Oct 10 ANA @ CGY u0.5 -115 4/5 0.54 L 1 assist · -1.00u
Oct 10 ANA @ CGY u0.5 -115 4/5 0.59 W 0 assists · +0.87u
Oct 10 ANA @ CGY u0.5 -180 4/5 0.38 L 2 assists · -1.00u
Oct 8 COL @ CGY u0.5 -450 4/5 0.30 W 0 assists · +0.22u
Oct 6 OTT @ DET u0.5 -450 4/5 0.32 W 0 assists · +0.22u
Oct 6 OTT @ DET u0.5 -130 4/5 0.61 L 1 assist · -1.00u
Oct 5 WPG @ PIT u0.5 -225 4/5 0.48 W 0 assists · +0.44u
Oct 4 UTA @ NYR u0.5 +100 5/5 0.76 L 1 assist · -1.00u
Oct 3 WSH @ TBL u0.5 -260 4/5 0.44 W 0 assists · +0.39u
Oct 3 STL @ COL u0.5 -325 4/5 0.43 W 0 assists · +0.31u