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PIT @ TBL

Thursday, December 4, 2025 · 6:00 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's starter from ESPN's probable-goalie report: Confirmed once the team or a beat reporter confirms it, Expected before that, refreshed every 30 minutes on game days. With no report yet it falls back to the team's most recent starter (Last start). After the game it shows the real starters from the box score. Injuries lists both teams' players on ESPN's injury report (Day-To-Day, Out, Injured Reserve) before puck drop. Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Pittsburgh Penguins
41-25-16 · Away
4 – 3
FINAL
Tampa Bay Lightning
50-26-6 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock closing line
Moneyline
PIT +135 · TBL -160
Puck Line
PIT +1.5 (-185) · TBL -1.5 (+140)
Total
O 6.5 (-110) · U (-110)

Graded: total 7 → OVER W · TBL -1.5 L

Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Game Total
Over 6.5
 PITo6.5 44%
11-14
40%
2-3
20%
2-8
39%
5-8
67%
2-1
48%
12-13
TBLo6.5 39%
10-16
20%
1-4
30%
3-7
39%
5-8
67%
2-1
46%
12-14
Puck Line
cover %
 PIT+1.5 84%
21-4
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
92%
12-1
33%
1-2
+5.89u
18-7
TBL-1.5 39%
10-16
80%
4-1
70%
7-3
23%
3-10
67%
2-1
-2.51u
13-13
Moneyline
win %
 PIT dog +135 52%
13-12
60%
3-2
40%
4-6
54%
7-6
0%
0-3
+4.77u
10-8
TBL fav -160 62%
16-10
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
62%
8-5
100%
3-0
-0.17u
11-7
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown (closing)
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 0.5
 DK 1.5 o-145/u+114 FD 1.5 o-154/u+120 PIT 88%
22-3
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
85%
11-2
100%
3-0
60%
15-10
 1.80 0.92 / 0.88
TBL 92%
24-2
80%
4-1
90%
9-1
92%
12-1
100%
3-0
54%
14-12
 2.04 1.27 / 0.77
2nd Period
over 0.5
 DK 2.5 o+145/u-188 FD 2.5 o+156/u-205 PIT 88%
22-3
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
92%
12-1
100%
3-0
44%
11-14
 1.84 0.92 / 0.92
TBL 85%
22-4
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
77%
10-3
100%
3-0
31%
8-18
 1.58 0.77 / 0.81
3rd Period
over 0.5
 FD 2.5 o+142/u-182 PIT 92%
23-2
100%
5-0
80%
8-2
92%
12-1
100%
3-0
40%
10-15
 2.12 1.28 / 0.84
TBL 92%
24-2
100%
5-0
100%
10-0
92%
12-1
100%
3-0
50%
13-13
 2.04 1.12 / 0.92
Team Comparison '25-26
PITTBL
Record (W-L-OTL)41-25-1650-26-6
Points %59.8%64.6%
Goals for / game3.573.54
Goals against / game3.272.82
Shots for / game28.628.1
Shots against / game27.426.7
Power play %24.1%20.7%
Penalty kill %81.4%82.6%
Faceoff %48.2%47.3%
1st period GF / GA1.13 / 0.830.96 / 0.93
2nd period GF / GA1.18 / 1.091.22 / 0.84
3rd period GF / GA1.17 / 1.161.23 / 0.98
Avg game total6.846.35
Starting Goalies from the box score
37 saves on 40 shots · 3 GA · W
27 saves on 31 shots · 4 GA · L
P1P2P3OTSOGPP
PIT1210312/4
TBL0120401/6
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line
PITPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Sidney Crosby G 0.5
o+170
 56% 50% 0%0/3 0 U
Evgeni Malkin G 0.5
o+250
 24% 30% 0%0/1 2 O
Bryan Rust G 0.5
o+225
 30% 30% 33%1/3 0 U
Kevin Hayes G 0.5
o+375
 20% 20% 50%1/2 0 U
Tommy Novak G 0.5
o+450
 12% 20% 0%0/2 0 U
Kris Letang G 0.5
o+900
 8% 10% 0%0/2 0 U
Ryan Graves G 0.5
o+1750
 9% 10% 0%0/1 0 U
Anthony Mantha G 0.5
o+300
 32% 10% — 0 U
Bokondji Imama G 0.5
o+1000
 6% 10% 0%0/1 0 U
Parker Wotherspoon G 0.5
o+1300
 8% 10% 25%1/4 0 U
Connor Dewar G 0.5
o+575
 20% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Blake Lizotte G 0.5
o+575
 12% 10% 0%0/2 0 U
Ben Kindel G 0.5
o+300
 23% 10% — 1 O
Erik Karlsson G 0.5
o+700
 4% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Connor Clifton G 0.5
o+1750
 0% 0% 33%1/3 0 U
Ryan Shea G 0.5
o+1500
 8% 0% 0%0/1 0 U
Ville Koivunen G 0.5
o+550
 0% 0% — 1 O
Rutger McGroarty G 0.5
o+500
 13% — — 0 U
Sidney Crosby PTS 0.5
o-180 / u+135
 68% 60% 100%3/3 0 U
Evgeni Malkin PTS 0.5
o-130 / u+100
 72% 50% 0%0/1 3 O
Bryan Rust PTS 0.5
o-140 / u+105
 61% 50% 67%2/3 0 U
Erik Karlsson PTS 0.5
o+125 / u-165
 48% 40% 0%0/3 1 O
Kevin Hayes PTS 0.5
o+155 / u-210
 40% 40% 50%1/2 0 U
Kris Letang PTS 0.5
o+190 / u-260
 32% 30% 0%0/2 1 O
Anthony Mantha PTS 0.5
o+145 / u-195
 52% 30% — 1 O
Ben Kindel PTS 0.5
o+135 / u-180
 32% 30% — 1 O
Erik Karlsson A 0.5
o+155 / u-210
 44% 40% 0%0/3 1 O
Sidney Crosby A 0.5
o+125 / u-165
 36% 30% 100%3/3 0 U
Kris Letang A 0.5
o+240 / u-350
 28% 30% 0%0/2 1 O
Bryan Rust A 0.5
o+135 / u-180
 48% 30% 33%1/3 0 U
Evgeni Malkin A 0.5
o+140 / u-185
 56% 20% 0%0/1 1 O
Kevin Hayes A 0.5
o+275 / u-425
 20% 20% 0%0/2 0 U
Anthony Mantha A 0.5
o+300 / u-450
 28% 20% — 1 O
Ben Kindel A 0.5
o+260 / u-375
 9% 20% — 0 U
Evgeni Malkin SOG 1.5
o-170 / u+125
 68% 90% 0%0/1 3 O
Kris Letang SOG 1.5
o-115 / u-115
 56% 80% 50%1/2 3 O
Sidney Crosby SOG 2.5
o+100 / u-130
 48% 60% 33%1/3 1 U
Erik Karlsson SOG 1.5
o-140 / u+105
 56% 60% 33%1/3 6 O
Kevin Hayes SOG 1.5
o-115 / u-115
 60% 60% 50%1/2 3 O
Ben Kindel SOG 1.5
o-135 / u+100
 59% 60% — 5 O
Bryan Rust SOG 2.5
o+135 / u-180
 44% 40% 33%1/3 2 U
Tristan Jarry SV 23.5
o-125 / u-105
 80% 80% 33%1/3 37 O
TBLPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Jake Guentzel G 0.5
o+115
 42% 50% 0%0/3 0 U
Brandon Hagel G 0.5
o+150
 44% 50% 67%2/3 2 O
Nikita Kucherov G 0.5
o+125
 38% 40% 67%2/3 1 O
Zemgus Girgensons G 0.5
o+525
 21% 20% 0%0/3 0 U
Nick Paul G 0.5
o+230
 29% 20% 33%1/3 0 U
Darren Raddysh G 0.5
o+475
 15% 20% 0%0/3 0 U
Anthony Cirelli G 0.5
o+220
 32% 20% 100%3/3 0 U
Dominic James G 0.5
o+525
 12% 20% — 0 U
Yanni Gourde G 0.5
o+425
 15% 10% 0%0/1 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand G 0.5
o+275
 8% 10% 33%1/3 0 U
Charle-Edouard D'Astous G 0.5
o+900
 11% 10% — 0 U
Gage Goncalves G 0.5
o+650
 8% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Emil Lilleberg G 0.5
o+1100
 8% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Declan Carlile G 0.5
o+1400
 13% 10% — 0 U
Curtis Douglas G 0.5
o+900
 0% 0% — 0 U
Pontus Holmberg G 0.5
o+600
 5% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Max Crozier G 0.5
o+1100
 0% 0% — 0 U
J.J. Moser G 0.5
o+900
 4% 0% 0%0/2 0 U
Jake Guentzel PTS 0.5
o-230 / u+170
 69% 70% 67%2/3 1 O
Darren Raddysh PTS 0.5
o-125 / u-105
 45% 70% 67%2/3 2 O
Nikita Kucherov PTS 1.5
o+120 / u-160
 46% 60% 67%2/3 2 O
Nick Paul PTS 0.5
o+105 / u-135
 71% 60% 67%2/3 1 O
Brandon Hagel PTS 0.5
o-195 / u+145
 56% 60% 67%2/3 2 O
Anthony Cirelli PTS 0.5
o-120 / u-110
 50% 40% 100%3/3 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand PTS 0.5
o+110 / u-145
 31% 30% 100%3/3 0 U
Nikita Kucherov A 0.5
o-175 / u+130
 54% 80% 67%2/3 1 O
Darren Raddysh A 0.5
o+110 / u-145
 40% 70% 67%2/3 2 O
Nick Paul A 0.5
o+220 / u-325
 43% 40% 33%1/3 1 O
Anthony Cirelli A 0.5
o+175 / u-240
 32% 40% 33%1/3 0 U
Brandon Hagel A 0.5
o+120 / u-160
 40% 40% 67%2/3 0 U
Jake Guentzel A 0.5
o+120 / u-160
 39% 30% 67%2/3 1 O
Oliver Bjorkstrand A 0.5
o+210 / u-300
 23% 20% 67%2/3 0 U
Brandon Hagel SOG 2.5
o-150 / u+110
 72% 70% 100%3/3 7 O
Oliver Bjorkstrand SOG 1.5
o-135 / u+100
 50% 60% 0%0/3 2 O
Nick Paul SOG 1.5
o-145 / u+110
 57% 60% 67%2/3 1 U
Darren Raddysh SOG 2.5
o+130 / u-175
 35% 50% 33%1/3 2 U
Anthony Cirelli SOG 1.5
o-150 / u+115
 50% 50% 100%3/3 1 U
Nikita Kucherov SOG 3.5
o+125 / u-165
 38% 40% 33%1/3 10 O
Jake Guentzel SOG 2.5
o+110 / u-145
 42% 40% 33%1/3 3 O
Jonas Johansson SV 22.5
o-125 / u-110
 71% 60% 100%1/1 27 O
Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Mar 25, 2025 at TBL TBL 6–1 4–02–00–1 7 6.5 O TBL
Jan 12, 2025 at PIT TBL 5–2 0–12–03–1 7 6.5 O TBL
Nov 19, 2024 at PIT TBL 3–2 OT 0–10–12–0 5 6.5 U TBL
Apr 6, 2024 at PIT TBL 4–5 0–11–33–1 9 — PIT
Dec 6, 2023 at TBL TBL 3–1 1–02–00–1 4 — TBL
Nov 30, 2023 at TBL TBL 2–4 2–00–20–2 6 — PIT
Mar 2, 2023 at TBL TBL 4–5 OT 1–01–32–1 9 — PIT
Feb 26, 2023 at PIT TBL 3–7 2–10–61–0 10 — PIT
Oct 15, 2022 at PIT TBL 2–6 1–10–11–4 8 — PIT
Mar 3, 2022 at TBL TBL 1–5 0–21–10–2 6 — PIT