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← Models / 1P Over Watch

1P Over Watch

Teams clearing 1st-period o1.5 in 75%+ of their games · DraftKings / FanDuel 1P lines

How 1P Over Watch Works

The watch list

A team is on the watch list when 2 or more goals were scored in the 1st period (by either team) in at least 75% of its games this season, with at least 8 games played. Only games before the game date count, so the list changes as results come in. Regular-season and playoff games both count; 1st-period goals are regulation only.

What gets tracked

Every game a watch-list team plays is a pick: the 1st-period OVER at the posted 1P total when that line is 0.5 or 1.5 (books nearly always post 1.5). Both teams marks games where both sides are on the list. Hard Rock does not post period totals, so lines come from DraftKings, or FanDuel when DraftKings has none.

When picks appear and lock

Picks refresh every 15 minutes for today and tomorrow as books post and move lines. A game drops off if the 1P line is pulled or moves off 0.5/1.5, or if a team falls off the list before puck drop, and comes back if it qualifies again. At puck drop the pick locks — the locked line and price are graded.

Grading

1 unit flat on the over at the locked price. Wins and losses use regulation 1st-period goals. A postponed game is a void. 1P o0.5 shows how often at least one goal was scored in the 1st period. History is the live record from launch; Backtest replays every season with DraftKings/FanDuel 1P lines (2024-25 on) at the closing line, with the watch list as it stood on each date. It is rebuilt every morning.

Read this first

A study of 2024-25 and 2025-26 found teams' 1st-period over records did not carry forward at the book's price: teams that started hot went back to about a coin flip. This board is for tracking whether this season's list is different. Treat the live record as the real test before betting it.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Today History Backtest
'26-27 '25-26 '24-25
Backtest · 2024-25 on. The watch list rebuilt as of each game date (only earlier games count), graded at the DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing 1P line and over price. Rebuilt every morning.
Record
42-28
60.0% wins
Units
+1.94
1u flat per game
ROI
+2.8%
1P o0.5
87%
games with a 1P goal

By season

SeasonGamesRecordWin %1P o0.5UnitsROI
'26-27 to date2317-6 73.9% 100% +6.08 +26.4%
'25-26105-5 50.0% 60% -1.44 -14.4%
'24-253720-17 54.1% 87% -2.69 -7.3%

Games · '24-25

DateGameWatch teamLinePriceResult
Dec 6 WSH @ TOR WSH 76% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 L 0 1P goals · -1.00u
Dec 3 SJS @ WSH WSH 79% o1.5 o1.5 DK -154 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Nov 30 WSH @ NJD WSH 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 W 2 1P goals · +0.69u
Nov 29 NYI @ WSH WSH 77% o1.5 o1.5 DK -120 W 3 1P goals · +0.83u
Nov 27 WSH @ TBL WSH 76% o1.5 o1.5 DK -140 W 2 1P goals · +0.71u
Nov 25 WSH @ FLA WSH 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -140 W 2 1P goals · +0.71u
Nov 21 COL @ WSH WSH 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Nov 18 WSH @ UTA WSH 77% o1.5 o1.5 DK -154 W 4 1P goals · +0.65u
Nov 17 WSH @ VGK WSH 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -154 W 3 1P goals · +0.65u
Nov 15 VGK @ UTA VGK 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Nov 9 PHI @ FLA FLA 79% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Nov 7 NSH @ FLA FLA 77% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 W 2 1P goals · +0.74u
Nov 7 COL @ WPG COL 77% o1.5 o1.5 DK -154 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Nov 6 VGK @ EDM VGK 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -160 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Nov 5 SEA @ COL COL 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 W 3 1P goals · +0.69u
Nov 2 DAL @ FLA FLA 83% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Nov 2 COL @ NSH COL 82% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 L 0 1P goals · -1.00u
Nov 2 UTA @ VGK VGK 82% o1.5 o1.5 DK -140 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Nov 1 FLA @ DAL FLA 82% o1.5 o1.5 DK -130 W 4 1P goals · +0.77u
Nov 1 OTT @ NYR OTT 78% o1.5 NYR 78% o1.5 Both teams o1.5 DK -154 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Oct 31 MTL @ WSH MTL 80% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 L 0 1P goals · -1.00u
Oct 30 TBL @ COL COL 80% o1.5 o1.5 DK -166 W 4 1P goals · +0.60u
Oct 30 VGK @ LAK VGK 80% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 W 2 1P goals · +0.69u
Oct 29 SEA @ MTL MTL 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -130 W 5 1P goals · +0.77u
Oct 29 PHI @ BOS PHI 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 L 0 1P goals · -1.00u
Oct 29 STL @ OTT OTT 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 W 3 1P goals · +0.69u
Oct 29 NYR @ WSH NYR 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -125 W 4 1P goals · +0.80u
Oct 28 FLA @ BUF FLA 80% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 W 2 1P goals · +0.69u
Oct 28 CHI @ COL COL 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -154 W 5 1P goals · +0.65u
Oct 28 CGY @ VGK VGK 89% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Oct 27 EDM @ DET DET 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -188 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Oct 27 MTL @ PHI MTL 75% o1.5 PHI 75% o1.5 Both teams o1.5 DK -180 W 2 1P goals · +0.56u
Oct 27 OTT @ COL COL 88% o1.5 o1.5 DK -166 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Oct 26 UTA @ LAK UTA 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -120 L 0 1P goals · -1.00u
Oct 26 FLA @ NYI FLA 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -115 W 4 1P goals · +0.87u
Oct 26 SJS @ VGK VGK 88% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 W 3 1P goals · +0.74u
Oct 24 FLA @ NYR FLA 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -125 W 3 1P goals · +0.80u