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← Models / 1P Over Watch

1P Over Watch

Teams clearing 1st-period o1.5 in 75%+ of their games · DraftKings / FanDuel 1P lines

How 1P Over Watch Works

The watch list

A team is on the watch list when 2 or more goals were scored in the 1st period (by either team) in at least 75% of its games this season, with at least 8 games played. Only games before the game date count, so the list changes as results come in. Regular-season and playoff games both count; 1st-period goals are regulation only.

What gets tracked

Every game a watch-list team plays is a pick: the 1st-period OVER at the posted 1P total when that line is 0.5 or 1.5 (books nearly always post 1.5). Both teams marks games where both sides are on the list. Hard Rock does not post period totals, so lines come from DraftKings, or FanDuel when DraftKings has none.

When picks appear and lock

Picks refresh every 15 minutes for today and tomorrow as books post and move lines. A game drops off if the 1P line is pulled or moves off 0.5/1.5, or if a team falls off the list before puck drop, and comes back if it qualifies again. At puck drop the pick locks — the locked line and price are graded.

Grading

1 unit flat on the over at the locked price. Wins and losses use regulation 1st-period goals. A postponed game is a void. 1P o0.5 shows how often at least one goal was scored in the 1st period. History is the live record from launch; Backtest replays every season with DraftKings/FanDuel 1P lines (2024-25 on) at the closing line, with the watch list as it stood on each date. It is rebuilt every morning.

Read this first

A study of 2024-25 and 2025-26 found teams' 1st-period over records did not carry forward at the book's price: teams that started hot went back to about a coin flip. This board is for tracking whether this season's list is different. Treat the live record as the real test before betting it.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Today History Backtest
'26-27 '25-26 '24-25
Backtest · 2024-25 on. The watch list rebuilt as of each game date (only earlier games count), graded at the DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing 1P line and over price. Rebuilt every morning.
Record
42-28
60.0% wins
Units
+1.94
1u flat per game
ROI
+2.8%
1P o0.5
87%
games with a 1P goal

By season

SeasonGamesRecordWin %1P o0.5UnitsROI
'26-27 to date2317-6 73.9% 100% +6.08 +26.4%
'25-26105-5 50.0% 60% -1.44 -14.4%
'24-253720-17 54.1% 87% -2.69 -7.3%

Games · '26-27

DateGameWatch teamLinePriceResult
Oct 24 NSH @ PIT NSH 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -154 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Oct 24 VGK @ CBJ VGK 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -140 W 2 1P goals · +0.71u
Oct 24 BUF @ WSH BUF 80% o1.5 WSH 78% o1.5 Both teams o1.5 DK -160 W 3 1P goals · +0.63u
Oct 24 TBL @ UTA TBL 80% o1.5 o1.5 DK -154 W 5 1P goals · +0.65u
Oct 24 DET @ CGY CGY 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -130 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Oct 24 MIN @ SEA MIN 82% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 W 2 1P goals · +0.74u
Oct 23 MTL @ CHI MTL 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 W 2 1P goals · +0.69u
Oct 23 TBL @ COL TBL 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 W 2 1P goals · +0.69u
Oct 22 NSH @ BOS NSH 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 W 2 1P goals · +0.74u
Oct 22 MIN @ CGY MIN 80% o1.5 CGY 75% o1.5 Both teams o1.5 DK -130 W 2 1P goals · +0.77u
Oct 21 PHI @ BUF BUF 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -130 W 2 1P goals · +0.77u
Oct 20 LAK @ WSH WSH 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -120 W 4 1P goals · +0.83u
Oct 20 SJS @ MTL MTL 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -166 W 2 1P goals · +0.60u
Oct 20 MIN @ EDM MIN 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 W 2 1P goals · +0.69u
Oct 20 DET @ SEA SEA 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -154 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Oct 20 TBL @ VGK TBL 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 W 4 1P goals · +0.74u
Oct 19 COL @ PHI COL 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Oct 18 CBJ @ MIN MIN 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 W 2 1P goals · +0.74u
Oct 17 VAN @ TBL VAN 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -160 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Oct 17 SEA @ FLA SEA 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 W 4 1P goals · +0.74u
Oct 17 NYI @ TOR TOR 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Oct 17 BUF @ MTL BUF 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -160 W 3 1P goals · +0.63u
Oct 15 VAN @ FLA VAN 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -140 W 2 1P goals · +0.71u