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← Models / 1P Over Watch

1P Over Watch

Teams clearing 1st-period o1.5 in 75%+ of their games · DraftKings / FanDuel 1P lines

How 1P Over Watch Works

The watch list

A team is on the watch list when 2 or more goals were scored in the 1st period (by either team) in at least 75% of its games this season, with at least 8 games played. Only games before the game date count, so the list changes as results come in. Regular-season and playoff games both count; 1st-period goals are regulation only.

What gets tracked

Every game a watch-list team plays is a pick: the 1st-period OVER at the posted 1P total when that line is 0.5 or 1.5 (books nearly always post 1.5). Both teams marks games where both sides are on the list. Hard Rock does not post period totals, so lines come from DraftKings, or FanDuel when DraftKings has none.

When picks appear and lock

Picks refresh every 15 minutes for today and tomorrow as books post and move lines. A game drops off if the 1P line is pulled or moves off 0.5/1.5, or if a team falls off the list before puck drop, and comes back if it qualifies again. At puck drop the pick locks — the locked line and price are graded.

Grading

1 unit flat on the over at the locked price. Wins and losses use regulation 1st-period goals. A postponed game is a void. 1P o0.5 shows how often at least one goal was scored in the 1st period. History is the live record from launch; Backtest replays every season with DraftKings/FanDuel 1P lines (2024-25 on) at the closing line, with the watch list as it stood on each date. It is rebuilt every morning.

Read this first

A study of 2024-25 and 2025-26 found teams' 1st-period over records did not carry forward at the book's price: teams that started hot went back to about a coin flip. This board is for tracking whether this season's list is different. Treat the live record as the real test before betting it.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Today History Backtest
'26-27 '25-26 '24-25
Backtest · 2024-25 on. The watch list rebuilt as of each game date (only earlier games count), graded at the DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing 1P line and over price. Rebuilt every morning.
Record
42-28
60.0% wins
Units
+1.94
1u flat per game
ROI
+2.8%
1P o0.5
87%
games with a 1P goal

By season

SeasonGamesRecordWin %1P o0.5UnitsROI
'26-27 to date2317-6 73.9% 100% +6.08 +26.4%
'25-26105-5 50.0% 60% -1.44 -14.4%
'24-253720-17 54.1% 87% -2.69 -7.3%

Games · '25-26

DateGameWatch teamLinePriceResult
Nov 20 CBJ @ TOR TOR 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 L 0 1P goals · -1.00u
Nov 13 ANA @ DET ANA 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -160 L 0 1P goals · -1.00u
Nov 1 CAR @ BOS BOS 77% o1.5 o1.5 DK -154 L 0 1P goals · -1.00u
Oct 31 COL @ VGK VGK 80% o1.5 o1.5 DK -160 L 1 1P goal · -1.00u
Oct 31 NYI @ WSH NYI 80% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 L 0 1P goals · -1.00u
Oct 30 BUF @ BOS BOS 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 W 2 1P goals · +0.74u
Oct 30 NYI @ CAR NYI 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -154 W 4 1P goals · +0.65u
Oct 28 VGK @ CAR VGK 78% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 W 3 1P goals · +0.74u
Oct 28 NYI @ BOS NYI 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -145 W 2 1P goals · +0.69u
Oct 26 VGK @ TBL VGK 75% o1.5 o1.5 DK -135 W 2 1P goals · +0.74u