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← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-11-14
Dylan Samberg
 WPG @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Top -300 69.7% 70.6% 0 W +0.33
2026-11-14
Connor Bedard
 CHI vs WPG OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.8% 66.0% 2 W +0.42
2026-11-14
Artyom Levshunov
 CHI vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.6% 65.6% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-14
Brandon Montour
 SEA @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Top -240 66.5% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-14
Viggo Björck
 WPG @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Top -230 66.3% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-14
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
 CAR vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.9% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-14
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs SEA OVER 0.5 Strong -210 65.6% 63.3% 2 W +0.48
2026-11-14
Berkly Catton
 SEA @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.5% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-14
Kaapo Kakko
 SEA @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.5% 64.6% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-14
Sebastian Aho
 CAR vs SEA UNDER 1.5 Strong -220 65.4% 64.1% 1 W +0.46
2026-11-14
Mackie Samoskevich
 SEA @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.1% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-14
Nikolaj Ehlers
 CAR vs SEA OVER 0.5 Strong -210 65.0% 63.3% 3 W +0.48
2026-11-14
Alexander Nikishin
 CAR vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 64.7% 64.9% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-14
Mark Scheifele
 WPG @ CHI UNDER 1.5 Strong -200 64.5% 62.5% 4 L -1.00
2026-11-14
Jaccob Slavin
 CAR vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.9% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-14
Kyle Connor
 WPG @ CHI UNDER 1.5 Strong -190 63.6% 61.6% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-14
Brayden Yager
 WPG @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.9% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-14
Sam Rinzel
 CHI vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 62.8% 60.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-14
Sean Walker
 CAR vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.6% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-14
Bobby McMann
 SEA @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 62.5% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-14
K'Andre Miller
 CAR vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.2% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-14
Vince Dunn
 SEA @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.8% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-14
Matty Beniers
 SEA @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -175 61.7% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-14
William Carrier
 CAR vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.2% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-14
Jordan Martinook
 CAR vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 61.2% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-14
Jackson Blake
 CAR vs SEA OVER 0.5 Lean -165 60.9% 58.4% 1 W +0.61
2026-11-14
Chandler Stephenson
 SEA @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 60.4% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-14
Jordan Eberle
 SEA @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 60.2% 58.6% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-14
Anton Frondell
 CHI vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.4% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-14
Tyler Bertuzzi
 CHI vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 57.7% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-14
Mark Jankowski
 CAR vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 57.7% 58.3% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-14
Jordan Staal
 CAR vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 57.4% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-14
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR vs SEA OVER 0.5 Lean -145 57.1% 54.8% 2 W +0.69
2026-11-14
Gabriel Vilardi
 WPG @ CHI OVER 0.5 Lean -135 56.8% 54.1% 2 W +0.74
2026-11-14
Josh Morrissey
 WPG @ CHI OVER 0.5 Lean -150 56.6% 55.8% 1 W +0.67
2026-11-14
Neal Pionk
 WPG @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 56.5% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-14
Logan Stankoven
 CAR vs SEA OVER 0.5 Lean -140 56.3% 54.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-13
Nils Hoglander
 NSH @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Top -230 68.9% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-13
Adam Fox
 NYR @ VAN OVER 0.5 Top -220 68.1% 64.1% 1 W +0.46
2026-11-13
Shane Wright
 NSH @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Top -230 67.5% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-13
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR @ VAN OVER 0.5 Top -225 67.4% 64.7% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-13
Zeev Buium
 VAN vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Top -230 66.7% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-13
Mitch Marner
 VGK vs NSH OVER 0.5 Top -220 66.6% 64.1% 1 W +0.46
2026-11-13
Jack Eichel
 VGK vs NSH UNDER 1.5 Top -230 66.1% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-13
Brett Howden
 VGK vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -260 64.4% 63.9% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-13
Noah Laba
 NYR @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.8% 62.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-13
J.T. Miller
 NYR @ VAN OVER 0.5 Strong -180 62.8% 60.2% 2 W +0.56
2026-11-13
Vladislav Gavrikov
 NYR @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 61.8% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-13
Mark Stone
 VGK vs NSH OVER 0.5 Strong -185 61.4% 60.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-13
Alexis Lafrenière
 NYR @ VAN OVER 0.5 Lean -160 60.5% 57.5% 2 W +0.63
2026-11-13
Shea Theodore
 VGK vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.2% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-13
Filip Chytil
 VAN vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 59.7% 57.8% 0 W +0.61
2026-11-13
Pavel Dorofeyev
 NYR @ VAN OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.6% 58.6% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-13
Mavrik Bourque
 NSH @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 59.2% 56.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-13
Ivan Barbashev
 VGK vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 59.1% 58.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-13
Filip Forsberg
 NSH @ VGK OVER 0.5 Lean -165 58.3% 58.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-13
Oliver Bjorkstrand
 NYR @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 58.2% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-13
William Karlsson
 VGK vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 57.6% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-11-13
Trevor Connelly
 VGK vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 57.0% 55.8% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-13
Roman Josi
 NSH @ VGK OVER 0.5 Lean -165 56.1% 56.1% 1 W +0.61
2026-11-12
Daniil But
 UTA vs STL UNDER 0.5 Top -240 71.8% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-12
Clayton Keller
 UTA vs STL UNDER 1.5 Top -250 71.3% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-12
Jack McBain
 UTA vs STL UNDER 0.5 Top -240 70.8% 66.4% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-12
Michael Carcone
 UTA vs STL UNDER 0.5 Top -325 70.5% 67.8% 0 W +0.31
2026-11-12
Jordan Spence
 OTT vs COL UNDER 0.5 Top -275 70.0% 68.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Lawson Crouse
 UTA vs STL UNDER 0.5 Top -250 69.6% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-12
Quinn Hughes
 MIN @ TOR OVER 0.5 Top -240 69.5% 66.0% 1 W +0.42
2026-11-12
Artemi Panarin
 LAK vs NYI UNDER 1.5 Top -260 69.5% 67.7% 1 W +0.39
2026-11-12
Gustav Forsling
 FLA vs DET UNDER 0.5 Top -275 69.4% 68.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs WPG OVER 0.5 Top -260 69.1% 67.3% 1 W +0.39
2026-11-12
Tony DeAngelo
 NYI @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Top -275 69.0% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-12
Josh Anderson
 MTL @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Top -325 68.9% 71.6% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Pontus Holmberg
 TBL @ CBJ UNDER 0.5 Top -250 68.9% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-12
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
 DET @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Top -250 68.8% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-12
Connor Bedard
 CHI vs BUF OVER 0.5 Top -240 68.7% 66.0% 1 W +0.42
2026-11-12
Ilya Mikheyev
 TBL @ CBJ UNDER 0.5 Top -260 68.5% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-12
Tim Stützle
 OTT vs COL UNDER 1.5 Top -240 68.3% 66.0% 1 W +0.42
2026-11-12
Drew Doughty
 LAK vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Top -260 68.3% 68.1% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-12
Victor Hedman
 TBL @ CBJ UNDER 0.5 Top -225 67.9% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-12
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
 CAR @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Top -275 67.9% 68.8% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-12
Jonas Brodin
 MIN @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Top -275 67.9% 68.8% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-12
Mikko Rantanen
 DAL vs WPG OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.9% 66.0% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Kailer Yamamoto
 UTA vs STL UNDER 0.5 Top -230 67.9% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-12
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA vs DET UNDER 1.5 Top -230 67.3% 64.9% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-12
Auston Matthews
 TOR vs MIN OVER 0.5 Top -225 67.2% 64.7% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-12
Zach Werenski
 CBJ vs TBL OVER 0.5 Top -210 66.7% 63.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Chris Kreider
 MTL @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Top -300 66.6% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-11-12
Esa Lindell
 DAL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Top -240 66.6% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-12
Sebastian Aho
 CAR @ SEA UNDER 1.5 Top -225 66.5% 64.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL vs WPG OVER 0.5 Top -225 66.4% 64.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Alexandre Texier
 MTL @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Top -240 66.4% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-12
Arttu Hyry
 DAL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.2% 64.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Philip Tomasino
 OTT vs COL UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.2% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-12
Matt Boldy
 MIN @ TOR UNDER 1.5 Top -240 66.1% 66.0% 3 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Trevor Moore
 LAK vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -250 66.0% 66.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Justin Faulk
 DET @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 66.0% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-12
Berkly Catton
 SEA vs CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.9% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-12
Oliver Moore
 CHI vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.7% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Dawson Mercer
 WPG @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Strong -250 65.7% 67.1% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Michael Amadio
 OTT vs COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.7% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
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