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← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-10-29
Ilya Protas
 WSH @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Top -260 68.5% 67.3% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-29
Sean Monahan
 CBJ @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Top -240 68.1% 66.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Jake Guentzel
 TBL vs WPG OVER 0.5 Top -225 68.0% 64.7% 1 W +0.44
2026-10-29
Chris Kreider
 MTL @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -250 68.0% 66.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Elias Salomonsson
 WPG @ TBL UNDER 0.5 Top -200 67.9% 62.0% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-29
Alex DeBrincat
 DET vs CHI OVER 0.5 Top -250 67.8% 66.7% 2 W +0.40
2026-10-29
Victor Eklund
 NYI @ MIN UNDER 0.5 Top -230 67.8% 64.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Mikko Rantanen
 DAL vs MTL OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.6% 66.0% 2 W +0.42
2026-10-29
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs MTL OVER 0.5 Top -225 67.3% 64.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Cam Fowler
 STL vs BOS UNDER 0.5 Top -230 66.4% 64.9% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-29
Erik Haula
 LAK vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.4% 64.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Stephen Halliday
 OTT @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Top -230 66.3% 64.9% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-29
Alex Newhook
 MTL @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -250 66.2% 66.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Lucas Raymond
 DET vs CHI OVER 0.5 Top -230 66.2% 65.3% 1 W +0.44
2026-10-29
Tristan Luneau
 ANA vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.1% 64.6% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Dawson Mercer
 WPG @ TBL UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.0% 64.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Bobby Brink
 MIN vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.9% 64.6% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-29
William Carrier
 CAR vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.5% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-29
Clayton Keller
 UTA @ PIT OVER 0.5 Strong -200 65.5% 62.5% 1 W +0.50
2026-10-29
David Pastrnak
 BOS @ STL UNDER 1.5 Strong -210 65.4% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-29
Mattias Samuelsson
 BUF @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -260 65.4% 67.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Tage Thompson
 BUF @ ANA OVER 0.5 Strong -220 65.4% 64.1% 5 W +0.46
2026-10-29
Brandon Hagel
 TBL vs WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -195 65.3% 61.8% 3 W +0.51
2026-10-29
Neal Pionk
 WPG @ TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 65.2% 64.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Kris Letang
 PIT vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 64.6% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-29
Jonatan Berggren
 STL vs BOS UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 64.5% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-29
Tim Stützle
 OTT @ LAK OVER 0.5 Strong -225 64.5% 64.7% 3 W +0.44
2026-10-29
Michael Rasmussen
 DET vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.5% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-29
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.4% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
James Hagens
 BOS @ STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.4% 63.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
J.T. Compher
 DET vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.3% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Zachary Bolduc
 MTL @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 64.1% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-29
Nikolaj Ehlers
 CAR vs CBJ OVER 0.5 Strong -225 64.0% 64.7% 1 W +0.44
2026-10-29
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN vs NYI UNDER 1.5 Strong -175 63.9% 59.4% 1 W +0.57
2026-10-29
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL vs MTL OVER 0.5 Strong -200 63.7% 62.5% 2 W +0.50
2026-10-29
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs CBJ OVER 0.5 Strong -220 63.7% 64.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Valeri Nichushkin
 CBJ @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 63.5% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-29
Anders Lee
 UTA @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.3% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-29
Ilya Mikheyev
 TBL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 63.3% 64.6% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-29
Brayden Point
 TBL vs WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -200 63.3% 62.0% 1 W +0.50
2026-10-29
Aliaksei Protas
 WSH @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.2% 63.3% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Pontus Holmberg
 TBL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 63.2% 64.7% 4 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Filip Forsberg
 NSH vs WSH OVER 0.5 Strong -170 63.2% 59.2% 2 W +0.59
2026-10-29
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF @ ANA OVER 0.5 Strong -190 62.9% 61.1% 2 W +0.53
2026-10-29
Trevor Moore
 LAK vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 62.8% 61.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Cole Hutson
 WSH @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 62.8% 61.8% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Fraser Minten
 BOS @ STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.3% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-29
Connor Bedard
 CHI @ DET OVER 0.5 Strong -200 62.2% 62.5% 1 W +0.50
2026-10-29
Thomas Chabot
 OTT @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 62.1% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-29
Justin Faulk
 DET vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.0% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-29
Kent Johnson
 CBJ @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -170 62.0% 58.6% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Mark Jankowski
 CAR vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 62.0% 60.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Josh Norris
 BUF @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 61.9% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-29
Charlie Coyle
 CBJ @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.8% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Ville Koivunen
 PIT vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 61.7% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-29
Linus Karlsson
 VAN @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.6% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-29
Leo Carlsson
 ANA vs BUF OVER 0.5 Strong -190 61.5% 61.1% 3 W +0.53
2026-10-29
Lawson Crouse
 UTA @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 61.4% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Will Smith
 SJS vs VAN OVER 0.5 Strong -175 61.4% 59.4% 2 W +0.57
2026-10-29
Matthew Knies
 CBJ @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.4% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-29
Artemi Panarin
 LAK vs OTT OVER 0.5 Strong -180 61.3% 60.2% 2 W +0.56
2026-10-29
Matthew Wood
 NSH vs WSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 61.0% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-29
Nick Schmaltz
 UTA @ PIT OVER 0.5 Lean -170 61.0% 59.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Jackson Blake
 CAR vs CBJ OVER 0.5 Lean -190 60.9% 61.1% 1 W +0.53
2026-10-29
Barrett Hayton
 UTA @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Lean -210 60.7% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Anton Frondell
 CHI @ DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.7% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-29
Blake Coleman
 MIN vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.7% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-29
Steven Stamkos
 NSH vs WSH OVER 0.5 Lean -155 60.6% 56.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Jason Zucker
 BUF @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 60.5% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-10-29
Alex Killorn
 ANA vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.4% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-29
Ryan Leonard
 WSH @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 60.3% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-29
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ PIT OVER 0.5 Lean -165 60.2% 58.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Erik Gustafsson
 LAK vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 60.2% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-10-29
Jack Quinn
 BUF @ ANA OVER 0.5 Lean -180 60.0% 60.2% 1 W +0.56
2026-10-29
Brandt Clarke
 LAK vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 60.0% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Ryan O'Reilly
 NSH vs WSH OVER 0.5 Lean -145 59.9% 55.4% 1 W +0.69
2026-10-29
Ryan McLeod
 BUF @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.5% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-10-29
Collin Graf
 SJS vs VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.3% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-10-29
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
 DET vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.3% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-10-29
MacKenzie Weegar
 UTA @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.2% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-10-29
Teuvo Teravainen
 CHI @ DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 59.2% 57.8% 0 W +0.61
2026-10-29
Roman Josi
 NSH vs WSH OVER 0.5 Lean -140 59.1% 54.5% 3 W +0.71
2026-10-29
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.1% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-10-29
Jacob Trouba
 SJS vs VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.0% 59.2% 0 W +0.59
2026-10-29
Sidney Crosby
 PIT vs UTA OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.9% 56.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Cole Caufield
 MTL @ DAL OVER 0.5 Lean -185 58.9% 60.9% 2 W +0.54
2026-10-29
Josh Doan
 BUF @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 58.9% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-29
Erik Karlsson
 PIT vs UTA OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.9% 56.7% 1 W +0.65
2026-10-29
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 58.8% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Filip Chytil
 VAN @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 58.4% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-10-29
Robert Thomas
 STL vs BOS OVER 0.5 Lean -160 58.2% 57.5% 3 W +0.63
2026-10-29
Brayden Schenn
 NYI @ MIN UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 58.2% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-10-29
Viktor Arvidsson
 DET vs CHI OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.1% 56.7% 4 W +0.65
2026-10-29
Logan Cooley
 UTA @ PIT OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.0% 56.7% 3 W +0.65
2026-10-29
Ben Kindel
 PIT vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 57.9% 59.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Frank Nazar
 CHI @ DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 57.8% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-10-29
Macklin Celebrini
 SJS vs VAN UNDER 1.5 Lean -150 57.7% 56.3% 1 W +0.67
2026-10-29
Michael Misa
 SJS vs VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 57.7% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-10-29
Maxim Shabanov
 MIN vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 57.7% 55.4% 0 W +0.69
2026-10-29
Mikhail Sergachev
 UTA @ PIT OVER 0.5 Lean -150 57.6% 55.8% 1 W +0.67
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