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6:30 PM
EDM -140 15-3-3
PHI 5.5 6-10-6
7:00 PM
FLA 5.5 12-7-2
DAL -130 11-6-2
7:00 PM
CGY 6.5 9-10-1
ANA -150 10-9-1
8:00 PM
VAN 6.5 3-17-1
VGK -450 13-5-3
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NSH -170 11-4-5
SJS 6.5 9-11-2
← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-10-27
MacKenzie Weegar
 UTA vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 58.6% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-10-27
Luke Hughes
 NJD @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 58.5% 56.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Tyler Seguin
 DAL vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 58.4% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-10-27
Thomas Harley
 DAL vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 58.4% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-10-27
Tristan Luneau
 ANA vs VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 58.3% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Connor McMichael
 STL vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 58.2% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-10-27
Jason Zucker
 BUF @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 58.2% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-10-27
Logan Cooley
 UTA vs MIN OVER 0.5 Lean -165 58.2% 58.4% 1 W +0.61
2026-10-27
Lane Hutson
 MTL @ STL OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.0% 56.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Christian Dvorak
 PHI vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 58.0% 56.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Timo Meier
 NJD @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 57.9% 55.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Owen Power
 BUF @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 57.8% 59.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Bo Horvat
 NYI @ NSH OVER 0.5 Lean -155 57.6% 57.2% 1 W +0.65
2026-10-27
Sam Bennett
 FLA @ WPG OVER 0.5 Lean -160 57.6% 57.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Trevor Zegras
 PHI vs CBJ OVER 0.5 Lean -165 57.5% 58.4% 2 W +0.61
2026-10-27
JJ Peterka
 BOS @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 57.3% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-10-27
Josh Doan
 BUF @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 57.0% 57.2% 0 W +0.61
2026-10-27
Zach Benson
 BUF @ SJS OVER 0.5 Lean -150 56.9% 56.3% 1 W +0.67
2026-10-27
Claude Giroux
 OTT @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.7% 55.8% 0 W +0.67
2026-10-27
Philip Broberg
 STL vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.7% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-10-27
Joel Eriksson Ek
 MIN @ UTA OVER 0.5 Lean -145 56.6% 55.4% 1 W +0.69
2026-10-27
Noah Dobson
 MTL @ STL UNDER 0.5 Lean -140 56.6% 54.5% 0 W +0.71
2026-10-27
Alex Killorn
 ANA vs VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 56.5% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-10-27
Roman Josi
 NSH vs NYI OVER 0.5 Lean -145 56.5% 55.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Oliver Kapanen
 MTL @ STL UNDER 0.5 Lean -125 56.5% 52.0% 0 W +0.80
2026-10-27
Valeri Nichushkin
 CBJ @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -140 56.3% 54.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Morgan Geekie
 BOS @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.3% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-10-27
Elias Lindholm
 BOS @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 56.3% 55.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Jake McCabe
 TOR @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Top -300 70.5% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-10-26
Drew Doughty
 LAK @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Top -275 70.4% 68.4% 3 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Artemi Panarin
 LAK @ NYR UNDER 1.5 Top -225 69.7% 64.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Vladislav Gavrikov
 NYR vs LAK UNDER 0.5 Top -260 68.3% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-26
Auston Matthews
 TOR @ CGY OVER 0.5 Top -240 68.1% 66.0% 1 W +0.42
2026-10-26
Sean Durzi
 NYR vs LAK UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.3% 65.6% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Aydar Suniev
 CGY vs TOR UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.2% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-26
Erik Haula
 LAK @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Top -230 66.2% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-26
Evan Bouchard
 EDM vs DET UNDER 1.5 Strong -220 65.5% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-26
Tye Kartye
 NYR vs LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.1% 64.1% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-26
William Nylander
 TOR @ CGY OVER 0.5 Strong -195 64.9% 61.8% 1 W +0.51
2026-10-26
Justin Faulk
 DET @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 64.4% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-26
Ryan Shea
 EDM vs DET UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.4% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Andrew Copp
 DET @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 64.2% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-26
Trevor Moore
 LAK @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.7% 62.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Simon Nemec
 CGY vs TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.1% 63.3% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Morgan Rielly
 TOR @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 63.0% 64.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Nick Paul
 TOR @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.9% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-26
Zayne Parekh
 CGY vs TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.8% 62.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Erik Gustafsson
 LAK @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -175 62.7% 57.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Alex DeBrincat
 DET @ EDM OVER 0.5 Strong -185 62.6% 60.9% 1 W +0.54
2026-10-26
Will Cuylle
 NYR vs LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.4% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-26
Kasperi Kapanen
 EDM vs DET UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.1% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR vs LAK OVER 0.5 Strong -200 62.1% 62.0% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Brandt Clarke
 LAK @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 61.2% 60.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Ryan Strome
 CGY vs TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 61.1% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-26
Adrian Kempe
 LAK @ NYR OVER 0.5 Lean -195 60.8% 61.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Kirill Marchenko
 TOR @ CGY OVER 0.5 Lean -175 60.8% 59.9% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Yegor Sharangovich
 CGY vs TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 60.6% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-26
Gabe Perreault
 NYR vs LAK UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 60.1% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-10-26
Dylan Larkin
 DET @ EDM OVER 0.5 Lean -160 59.2% 57.5% 1 W +0.63
2026-10-26
Emmitt Finnie
 DET @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 59.1% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-26
Adam Fox
 NYR vs LAK OVER 0.5 Lean -160 58.4% 57.5% 1 W +0.63
2026-10-26
Lucas Raymond
 DET @ EDM OVER 0.5 Lean -150 58.1% 56.3% 2 W +0.67
2026-10-26
Matt Coronato
 CGY vs TOR OVER 0.5 Lean -150 57.2% 56.3% 2 W +0.67
2026-10-26
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
 EDM vs DET OVER 0.5 Lean -150 56.6% 55.8% 1 W +0.67
2026-10-25
Alex Iafallo
 WPG vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Top -350 72.7% 72.6% 0 W +0.29
2026-10-25
Jake Evans
 MTL @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Top -350 72.4% 73.1% 0 W +0.29
2026-10-25
Olli Maatta
 MIN @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Top -300 71.8% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-10-25
Adam Lowry
 WPG vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Top -300 71.5% 70.6% 0 W +0.33
2026-10-25
Isak Rosen
 WPG vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Top -300 71.3% 69.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Tony DeAngelo
 NYI @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -275 71.2% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-10-25
Joel Kiviranta
 DAL vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Top -250 71.2% 66.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Viggo Björck
 WPG vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Top -250 69.9% 67.1% 0 W +0.40
2026-10-25
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs NYI UNDER 1.5 Top -240 69.1% 66.0% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Mike Matheson
 MTL @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Top -275 68.9% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-10-25
Alexandre Texier
 MTL @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Top -275 68.8% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-10-25
Mikko Rantanen
 DAL vs NYI UNDER 1.5 Top -230 68.6% 65.3% 1 W +0.44
2026-10-25
Cale Makar
 COL @ NSH OVER 0.5 Top -240 68.2% 66.0% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Phillip Danault
 MTL @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Top -260 68.0% 67.3% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-25
Quinn Hughes
 MIN @ VAN UNDER 1.5 Top -195 67.3% 61.8% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Kyle Connor
 WPG vs MTL OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.0% 66.0% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Gustav Forsling
 FLA @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.0% 67.1% 0 W +0.40
2026-10-25
Dawson Mercer
 WPG vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Top -250 66.9% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-10-25
Brady Tkachuk
 FLA @ CHI OVER 0.5 Top -240 66.7% 66.0% 1 W +0.42
2026-10-25
Josh Anderson
 MTL @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Top -230 66.7% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-25
Matthew Wood
 NSH vs COL UNDER 0.5 Top -200 66.1% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-25
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ CHI UNDER 1.5 Strong -220 65.9% 64.1% 1 W +0.46
2026-10-25
Mark Scheifele
 WPG vs MTL OVER 0.5 Strong -230 65.8% 65.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Zachary Bolduc
 MTL @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.7% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-25
Matt Boldy
 MIN @ VAN UNDER 1.5 Strong -180 65.3% 60.2% 1 W +0.56
2026-10-25
Mavrik Bourque
 NSH vs COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.3% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Sam Malinski
 COL @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.1% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Sam Reinhart
 FLA @ CHI OVER 0.5 Strong -200 64.8% 62.0% 1 W +0.50
2026-10-25
Connor Bedard
 CHI vs FLA OVER 0.5 Strong -210 64.4% 63.3% 1 W +0.48
2026-10-25
Martin Necas
 COL @ NSH UNDER 1.5 Strong -225 64.2% 64.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Elias Pettersson
 VAN vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -350 63.7% 73.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Aaron Ekblad
 FLA @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 63.4% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Jared Spurgeon
 MIN @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 63.1% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-25
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ VAN UNDER 1.5 Strong -170 63.0% 58.6% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-25
Cole Caufield
 MTL @ WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -200 62.2% 62.0% 2 W +0.50
2026-10-25
Danila Yurov
 MIN @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 62.0% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
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