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SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2026-10-18
Kent Johnson
 CBJ @ MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.5% 41.4% +4.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-18
Matt Boldy
 MIN vs CBJ UNDER 3.5 lean -105 52.5% 47.5% +2.5% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-18
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN vs CBJ UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.3% 51.7% +3.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-18
Jonas Brodin
 MIN vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean -130 59.1% 53.1% +4.5% 0 W +0.77 —
2026-10-17
Ben Kindel
 PIT @ VGK UNDER 1.5 best +105 52.0% 45.9% +6.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Brett Howden
 VGK vs PIT UNDER 1.5 best +105 51.4% 45.5% +5.3% 0 W +1.05 —
2026-10-17
Jeremy Lauzon
 VGK vs PIT UNDER 1.5 best -170 66.7% 58.6% +6.0% 0 W +0.59 —
2026-10-17
Jack Eichel
 VGK vs PIT UNDER 3.5 best -160 65.0% 57.5% +5.7% 0 W +0.63 —
2026-10-17
Ivan Barbashev
 VGK vs PIT UNDER 1.5 best +120 48.2% 42.8% +6.0% 0 W +1.20 —
2026-10-17
Tomas Hertl
 VGK vs PIT UNDER 2.5 best -140 61.5% 51.7% +5.4% 1 W +0.71 —
2026-10-17
Dylan Guenther
 UTA vs EDM UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.2% 42.5% +5.9% 2 W +1.20 —
2026-10-17
Adam Jiricek
 STL @ NSH UNDER 1.5 best -105 53.9% 47.5% +5.2% 1 W +0.95 —
2026-10-17
Connor McMichael
 STL @ NSH UNDER 1.5 best +135 44.7% 39.8% +5.1% 0 W +1.35 —
2026-10-17
Brady Skjei
 NSH vs STL UNDER 1.5 best -125 59.6% 52.0% +7.3% 1 W +0.80 —
2026-10-17
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL @ CHI UNDER 2.5 best +100 53.5% 46.5% +7.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Tyler Seguin
 DAL @ CHI UNDER 1.5 best +140 45.0% 38.9% +7.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Kent Johnson
 CBJ vs NYR UNDER 2.5 best -190 71.2% 61.1% +8.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Stephen Halliday
 OTT @ PHI UNDER 1.5 best -105 57.6% 46.8% +12.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Michael Bunting
 PHI vs OTT UNDER 1.5 best -125 59.2% 52.0% +6.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Olen Zellweger
 BUF @ MTL UNDER 2.5 best -195 69.7% 61.8% +5.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Noah Dobson
 MTL vs BUF UNDER 2.5 best -180 68.5% 60.2% +6.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Gavin McKenna
 TOR vs NYI UNDER 1.5 best -105 54.0% 48.0% +5.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ WPG UNDER 2.5 best +105 52.8% 44.5% +8.1% 2 W +1.05 —
2026-10-17
Sebastian Aho
 CAR @ WPG UNDER 2.5 best -105 54.9% 48.0% +7.2% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-10-17
Kyle Connor
 WPG vs CAR UNDER 3.5 best -160 65.0% 57.5% +5.7% 2 W +0.63 —
2026-10-17
Timo Meier
 NJD @ WSH UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.9% 42.5% +7.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Trevor Connelly
 VGK vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.4% 60.4% +2.4% 2 W +0.54 —
2026-10-17
William Karlsson
 VGK vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.4% 38.2% +3.8% 1 W +1.45 —
2026-10-17
Erik Karlsson
 PIT @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.9% 38.2% +2.6% 1 W +1.45 —
2026-10-17
Vasily Podkolzin
 EDM @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.8% 55.2% +3.0% 0 W +0.67 —
2026-10-17
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.3% +2.6% 1 W +1.10 —
2026-10-17
Adrian Kempe
 LAK vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.6% +4.0% 1 W +1.30 —
2026-10-17
Corey Perry
 LAK vs BOS UNDER 1.5 lean -145 60.7% 55.4% +2.5% 0 W +0.69 —
2026-10-17
Dalibor Dvorsky
 STL @ NSH UNDER 1.5 lean -115 55.4% 50.0% +3.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Pavel Buchnevich
 STL @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -200 68.8% 62.0% +3.1% 1 W +0.50 —
2026-10-17
Steven Stamkos
 NSH vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.9% 51.0% +2.4% 1 W +0.83 —
2026-10-17
Nils Lundkvist
 DAL @ CHI UNDER 1.5 lean -180 66.7% 56.9% +3.8% 1 W +0.56 —
2026-10-17
Mikko Rantanen
 DAL @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -130 57.7% 53.1% +2.1% 1 W +0.77 —
2026-10-17
Adam Fantilli
 CBJ vs NYR UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.6% 45.5% +3.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Matthew Knies
 CBJ vs NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.4% 40.9% +4.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Will Cuylle
 NYR @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.5% 44.6% +3.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Mathieu Olivier
 CBJ vs NYR UNDER 1.5 lean -110 54.5% 47.3% +4.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Carter Yakemchuk
 OTT @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean -115 54.9% 50.0% +2.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Shane Pinto
 OTT @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.7% +3.7% 1 W +1.25 —
2026-10-17
Will Smith
 SJS @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.6% 52.0% +3.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Alex DeBrincat
 DET vs SJS UNDER 3.5 lean -120 56.0% 51.0% +2.7% 2 W +0.83 —
2026-10-17
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL vs BUF UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.3% 50.0% +3.4% 1 W +0.87 —
2026-10-17
Lane Hutson
 MTL vs BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.8% 42.5% +3.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Cole Caufield
 MTL vs BUF UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.9% 54.5% +4.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Auston Matthews
 TOR vs NYI UNDER 3.5 lean +100 51.8% 46.5% +3.6% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-17
Jonathan Lekkerimäki
 VAN @ TBL UNDER 1.5 lean -115 55.5% 50.0% +3.7% 0 W +0.87 —
2026-10-17
Brandon Hagel
 TBL vs VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -125 58.3% 52.0% +4.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Jackson Blake
 CAR @ WPG UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.9% 54.5% +2.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR @ WPG UNDER 1.5 lean +105 51.0% 45.5% +4.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Cole Hutson
 WSH vs NJD UNDER 1.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.6% +2.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-17
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.8% 49.0% +2.6% 1 W +0.91 —
2026-10-16
Roger McQueen
 ANA vs BOS UNDER 1.5 best -110 56.3% 49.0% +7.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-16
James Hagens
 BOS @ ANA UNDER 1.5 best -105 54.7% 46.1% +6.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-16
Fraser Minten
 BOS @ ANA UNDER 1.5 best +120 48.8% 42.5% +7.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-16
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs BOS UNDER 3.5 best -110 60.7% 49.0% +15.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-16
Judd Caulfield
 ANA vs BOS UNDER 1.5 best +110 50.4% 44.6% +5.8% 0 W +1.10 —
2026-10-16
David Pastrnak
 BOS @ ANA UNDER 3.5 best -120 58.0% 51.0% +6.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-16
Nathan MacKinnon
 COL vs PIT UNDER 3.5 best +115 49.1% 43.4% +5.5% 9 L -1.00 —
2026-10-16
JJ Peterka
 BOS @ ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.8% 42.2% +2.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-16
Hampus Lindholm
 BOS @ ANA UNDER 1.5 lean -135 59.6% 53.5% +3.7% 0 W +0.74 —
2026-10-16
T.J. Hughes
 COL vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.6% 42.5% +4.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-16
Jaden Schwartz
 COL vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.4% 46.9% +2.7% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-15
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ EDM UNDER 3.5 best -175 67.0% 59.4% +5.3% 2 W +0.57 —
2026-10-15
Vasily Podkolzin
 EDM vs UTA UNDER 2.5 best -140 61.5% 54.5% +5.4% 2 W +0.71 —
2026-10-15
Adam Jiricek
 STL @ MIN UNDER 1.5 best +105 52.8% 43.9% +8.3% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-10-15
Matthew Wood
 NSH vs SJS UNDER 1.5 best -110 55.3% 49.0% +5.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Neal Pionk
 WPG @ CHI UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.9% 38.0% +7.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Kyle Connor
 WPG @ CHI UNDER 3.5 best -110 57.6% 49.0% +9.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Pavel Dorofeyev
 NYR @ NJD UNDER 2.5 best +110 51.2% 44.6% +7.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best +125 48.2% 41.7% +8.4% 1 W +1.25 —
2026-10-15
Michael Bunting
 PHI @ DET UNDER 1.5 best -120 57.4% 51.0% +5.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Stephen Halliday
 OTT vs NYI UNDER 2.5 best -195 77.8% 61.8% +17.7% 1 W +0.51 —
2026-10-15
Brett Howden
 VGK vs CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.5% +2.5% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-10-15
Jack Eichel
 VGK vs CGY UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.9% 54.5% +4.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Rasmus Andersson
 VGK vs CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.4% +2.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Shea Theodore
 VGK vs CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.5% +2.4% 1 W +1.20 —
2026-10-15
Matt Boldy
 MIN vs STL UNDER 3.5 lean -120 56.0% 51.0% +2.7% 8 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Connor Bedard
 CHI vs WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.8% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Cole Perfetti
 WPG @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.5% 52.2% +2.0% 2 W +0.71 —
2026-10-15
Timo Meier
 NJD vs NYR UNDER 3.5 lean -180 66.0% 57.5% +2.6% 2 W +0.56 —
2026-10-15
Brady Tkachuk
 FLA vs VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -130 58.5% 53.1% +3.5% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.4% 46.5% +2.9% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-15
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
 DET vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +110 48.9% 42.3% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Matvei Michkov
 PHI @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean -185 67.8% 60.9% +4.5% 1 W +0.54 —
2026-10-15
Tyson Foerster
 PHI @ DET UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.6% 39.6% +4.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Alex DeBrincat
 DET vs PHI UNDER 3.5 lean -130 59.0% 53.1% +4.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-15
Dylan Larkin
 DET vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.5% 43.4% +4.3% 2 W +1.15 —
2026-10-15
Louis Crevier
 BUF @ TOR UNDER 1.5 lean -150 62.3% 55.8% +3.8% 1 W +0.67 —
2026-10-15
Josh Norris
 BUF @ TOR UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.6% 48.0% +2.7% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-10-14
Tyler Seguin
 DAL @ COL UNDER 1.5 best +135 46.4% 39.6% +9.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-14
Cole Caufield
 MTL @ WSH UNDER 3.5 best -125 60.2% 51.5% +8.4% 0 W +0.80 —
2026-10-14
Nathan MacKinnon
 COL vs DAL UNDER 3.5 lean -105 52.3% 47.5% +2.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
James Hagens
 BOS @ SJS UNDER 1.5 best +110 52.3% 44.6% +9.8% 0 W +1.10 —
2026-10-13
Vasily Podkolzin
 EDM @ LAK UNDER 2.5 best -130 61.6% 53.1% +9.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-13
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ LAK UNDER 2.5 best +125 48.3% 41.7% +8.6% 3 L -1.00 —
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