← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-03-27 BUF vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.7% 37.5% +4.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-03-26 BOS @ ANA OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.8% 46.5% +3.5% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-26 EDM vs DAL OVER 1.5 lean -130 58.4% 53.1% +3.3% 5 W +0.77 —
2025-03-26 CHI vs NJD OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.7% 45.5% +3.9% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-26 VAN @ NYI UNDER 1.5 lean -130 58.9% 52.5% +4.3% 0 W +0.77 —
2025-03-26 NYI vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.8% 54.5% +4.3% 1 W +0.71 —
2025-03-25 STL vs MTL OVER 1.5 best +170 39.9% 34.7% +7.7% 3 W +1.70 —
2025-03-25 MTL @ STL UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.8% 38.2% +7.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-03-25 OTT @ BUF OVER 1.5 best -120 58.2% 51.0% +6.7% 2 W +0.83 —
2025-03-25 NYR @ LAK OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.1% 45.9% +2.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-25 COL vs DET OVER 1.5 lean -145 61.6% 55.4% +4.2% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-25 WSH @ WPG UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.3% 54.5% +3.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-03-25 STL vs MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.4% 43.4% +4.0% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-03-25 STL vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-03-25 BUF vs OTT OVER 2.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.5% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-25 BUF vs OTT OVER 2.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.4% +2.2% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-24 UTA vs DET UNDER 2.5 best +130 45.7% 40.9% +5.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-03-23 STL vs NSH UNDER 1.5 best +110 50.6% 44.6% +6.3% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-03-23 FLA vs PIT UNDER 2.5 best -135 60.5% 54.1% +5.3% 2 W +0.74 —
2025-03-23 CAR @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -160 62.9% 57.5% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-03-22 EDM vs SEA UNDER 2.5 best -140 61.8% 54.5% +5.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-03-22 COL @ MTL OVER 1.5 best -120 58.0% 51.0% +6.4% 2 W +0.83 —
2025-03-22 STL vs CHI UNDER 2.5 best +120 47.8% 42.5% +5.2% 2 W +1.20 —
2025-03-22 OTT @ NJD OVER 1.5 lean -120 57.2% 51.0% +4.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-22 MTL vs COL UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.9% 39.6% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-03-22 COL @ MTL OVER 1.5 lean -150 61.9% 56.3% +3.2% 2 W +0.67 —
2025-03-22 UTA vs TBL OVER 1.5 lean -145 61.0% 55.4% +3.0% 5 W +0.69 —
2025-03-22 STL vs CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.6% 43.4% +4.5% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-03-20 COL @ OTT OVER 1.5 best -130 59.5% 52.5% +5.3% 2 W +0.77 —
2025-03-20 COL @ OTT OVER 1.5 best -130 61.3% 53.1% +8.4% 3 W +0.77 —
2025-03-20 CAR @ SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.7% 42.2% +2.7% 1 W +1.20 —
2025-03-20 CAR @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.7% 57.5% +3.4% 1 W +0.63 —
2025-03-20 UTA vs BUF OVER 1.5 lean -135 59.0% 54.1% +2.7% 2 W +0.74 —
2025-03-20 TBL @ DAL OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.9% +2.2% 4 W +1.00 —
2025-03-20 NYI vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.7% 48.0% +2.8% 2 W +0.95 —
2025-03-20 FLA @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -145 61.1% 55.4% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-03-20 WSH vs PHI UNDER 3.5 lean -145 61.1% 55.4% +3.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-03-20 OTT vs COL OVER 1.5 lean -140 60.4% 54.5% +3.5% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-19 MIN vs SEA OVER 1.5 best +105 52.0% 45.9% +6.6% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-19 COL @ TOR OVER 1.5 best -130 59.4% 53.1% +5.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-19 TOR vs COL OVER 1.5 lean -120 55.8% 51.0% +2.3% 2 W +0.83 —
2025-03-19 COL @ TOR OVER 1.5 lean -135 60.0% 53.5% +4.4% 3 W +0.74 —
2025-03-18 UTA @ EDM OVER 1.5 best -120 57.7% 51.0% +5.8% 3 W +0.83 —
2025-03-18 CHI vs SEA OVER 1.5 best +135 45.4% 39.8% +6.6% 2 W +1.35 —
2025-03-18 ANA @ DAL OVER 1.5 best +110 51.1% 44.6% +7.2% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-18 WSH vs DET UNDER 3.5 best -110 55.8% 49.0% +6.6% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-03-18 SEA @ CHI UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.8% 47.5% +3.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-03-18 CHI vs SEA OVER 2.5 lean +130 44.6% 40.6% +2.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-18 CHI vs SEA OVER 1.5 lean +110 49.6% 44.6% +4.2% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-18 ANA @ DAL OVER 1.5 lean +100 52.1% 46.9% +4.3% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-18 NSH vs STL UNDER 1.5 lean -125 57.0% 51.5% +2.6% 0 W +0.80 —
2025-03-18 STL @ NSH UNDER 1.5 lean -105 53.5% 48.0% +4.5% 1 W +0.95 —
2025-03-18 STL @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.5% 50.0% +3.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-03-18 OTT @ MTL OVER 1.5 lean -155 62.7% 56.7% +3.2% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-17 TOR vs CGY OVER 1.5 lean -130 57.8% 53.1% +2.2% 2 W +0.77 —
2025-03-17 TBL vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.5% 57.5% +3.2% 2 W +0.63 —
2025-03-16 UTA @ VAN UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.2% 42.8% +5.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-03-16 FLA @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best -160 65.0% 57.5% +5.6% 1 W +0.63 —
2025-03-16 COL vs DAL OVER 1.5 best -135 61.0% 53.5% +6.2% 2 W +0.74 —
2025-03-16 UTA @ VAN OVER 1.5 lean -115 56.1% 50.0% +4.9% 2 W +0.87 —
2025-03-16 FLA @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.9% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-03-16 STL vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.3% 43.7% +3.8% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-03-16 COL vs DAL OVER 1.5 lean -165 64.0% 57.8% +2.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-15 MIN vs STL UNDER 1.5 best +125 47.1% 41.4% +6.0% 0 W +1.25 —
2025-03-15 FLA @ MTL UNDER 2.5 best -150 63.3% 55.8% +5.5% 1 W +0.67 —
2025-03-15 TOR vs OTT OVER 1.5 best -115 56.9% 50.0% +6.4% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-15 WSH @ SJS UNDER 3.5 best +100 53.0% 46.9% +6.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-03-15 CHI @ VAN OVER 1.5 lean +140 43.5% 39.1% +4.4% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-15 CHI @ VAN OVER 1.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.5% +2.4% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-15 NYR @ CBJ OVER 1.5 lean -130 59.0% 53.1% +4.3% 3 W +0.77 —
2025-03-15 CBJ vs NYR OVER 1.5 lean -145 61.4% 55.4% +3.7% 2 W +0.69 —
2025-03-15 CAR @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -200 68.9% 62.5% +3.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-03-14 COL @ CGY OVER 1.5 best -135 61.7% 53.5% +7.4% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-14 CAR vs DET UNDER 2.5 best -145 63.0% 55.4% +6.4% 2 W +0.69 —
2025-03-14 UTA @ SEA OVER 1.5 lean -140 60.7% 54.5% +4.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-14 SEA vs UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.6% +2.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-14 ANA vs NSH OVER 1.5 lean -135 58.6% 54.1% +2.0% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-14 CAR vs DET UNDER 1.5 lean -120 55.7% 51.0% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-13 FLA @ TOR UNDER 2.5 best -185 68.2% 60.4% +5.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-03-13 CHI @ SJS OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.3% 47.5% +2.0% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-13 CHI @ SJS OVER 1.5 lean +105 51.1% 45.9% +4.8% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-03-13 WSH @ LAK OVER 1.5 lean -110 53.8% 49.0% +2.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-13 WSH @ LAK UNDER 3.5 lean -130 58.8% 53.1% +4.0% 0 W +0.77 —
2025-03-13 NYR @ MIN OVER 1.5 lean -125 57.3% 52.0% +3.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-13 TBL @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -185 67.5% 60.9% +4.0% 1 W +0.54 —
2025-03-13 NJD vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.4% 42.5% +2.2% 0 W +1.20 —
2025-03-12 MTL @ SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.7% 41.7% +2.9% 1 W +1.25 —
2025-03-12 SEA vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.2% 53.1% +3.0% 0 W +0.77 —
2025-03-11 WSH @ ANA UNDER 3.5 best +110 50.6% 44.6% +6.3% 3 W +1.10 —
2025-03-11 COL @ MIN OVER 1.5 best +150 42.8% 37.5% +7.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-11 COL @ MIN OVER 1.5 best -145 62.7% 55.4% +5.9% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-11 FLA @ BOS UNDER 2.5 best -190 69.4% 61.1% +5.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-03-11 SJS vs NSH UNDER 3.5 lean -125 56.8% 52.0% +2.2% 2 W +0.80 —
2025-03-11 COL @ MIN OVER 1.5 lean -165 64.5% 57.8% +3.6% 3 W +0.61 —
2025-03-11 CAR vs TBL UNDER 2.5 lean -150 62.3% 56.3% +3.9% 2 W +0.67 —
2025-03-10 CHI @ COL OVER 1.5 best +125 48.5% 41.7% +9.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-10 COL vs CHI OVER 2.5 best +140 43.9% 38.9% +5.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-10 CHI @ COL OVER 1.5 best +140 44.9% 39.1% +7.6% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-10 COL vs CHI OVER 2.5 best +125 47.5% 41.4% +6.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-10 UTA vs TOR OVER 1.5 lean -160 63.4% 57.5% +3.0% 3 W +0.63 —
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