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SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2026-10-06
Jordan Staal
 CAR @ MTL UNDER 1.5 best +110 50.6% 43.6% +6.2% 1 W +1.10 —
2026-10-06
Matthew Wood
 NSH @ TOR UNDER 1.5 best +105 54.2% 45.5% +11.0% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-10-06
Ross Colton
 NSH @ TOR UNDER 1.5 best -105 54.7% 48.0% +6.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-06
Trevor Moore
 LAK vs FLA OVER 1.5 lean -145 60.9% 55.4% +3.0% 2 W +0.69 —
2026-10-06
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.0% 48.0% +3.4% 2 W +0.95 —
2026-10-06
Trevor Connelly
 VGK @ SEA UNDER 1.5 lean -125 57.5% 52.0% +3.4% 0 W +0.80 —
2026-10-06
Berkly Catton
 SEA vs VGK UNDER 1.5 lean -125 57.8% 52.0% +4.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-06
Shea Theodore
 VGK @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -190 68.3% 61.1% +4.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-06
Cam Fowler
 STL @ CHI UNDER 1.5 lean -180 66.0% 57.5% +2.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-06
Maxim Shabanov
 MIN @ BUF UNDER 1.5 lean -135 59.3% 53.5% +3.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-06
Jack Quinn
 BUF vs MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.8% 51.0% +4.1% 2 W +0.83 —
2026-10-06
Ryan McLeod
 BUF vs MIN OVER 0.5 lean -155 63.1% 56.7% +3.8% 1 W +0.65 —
2026-10-06
Yakov Trenin
 MIN @ BUF UNDER 1.5 lean -160 64.5% 57.5% +4.8% 0 W +0.63 —
2026-10-06
Drake Batherson
 OTT @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean -150 62.8% 56.3% +4.7% 2 W +0.67 —
2026-10-06
Jackson Blake
 CAR @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.6% 52.7% +2.2% 2 W +0.71 —
2026-10-06
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR @ MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +100 52.3% 45.8% +4.7% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-06
Mike Matheson
 MTL vs CAR UNDER 1.5 lean -110 53.7% 47.7% +2.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-06
Filip Forsberg
 NSH @ TOR UNDER 3.5 lean -145 61.2% 53.1% +3.3% 2 W +0.69 —
2026-10-05
Jamie Benn
 DAL vs SJS UNDER 1.5 best -105 56.5% 48.0% +10.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-05
Ben Kindel
 PIT vs WPG UNDER 1.5 best +135 48.7% 39.8% +14.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-05
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT vs WPG UNDER 2.5 best -135 62.9% 53.5% +9.4% 0 W +0.74 —
2026-10-05
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT @ BOS UNDER 1.5 best -105 55.7% 48.0% +8.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-05
Tommy Novak
 PIT vs WPG UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.5% 48.0% +2.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-05
Rickard Rakell
 PIT vs WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.3% 2 W +1.05 —
2026-10-05
Sidney Crosby
 PIT vs WPG UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.6% 48.0% +4.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-05
William Eklund
 OTT @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -175 66.8% 60.9% +4.9% 2 W +0.57 —
2026-10-05
JJ Peterka
 BOS vs OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.1% 40.8% +3.6% 0 W +1.20 —
2026-10-05
Thomas Chabot
 OTT @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -160 64.5% 58.6% +4.7% 1 W +0.63 —
2026-10-05
Trevor Zegras
 PHI @ TBL OVER 1.5 lean +115 47.9% 43.7% +3.0% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-10-04
Rasmus Andersson
 VGK @ VAN UNDER 1.5 best +140 45.2% 38.9% +8.6% 1 W +1.40 —
2026-10-04
Shea Theodore
 VGK @ VAN UNDER 1.5 best +135 44.9% 39.8% +5.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-04
Tomas Hertl
 VGK @ VAN UNDER 2.5 best -175 67.1% 59.4% +5.5% 2 W +0.57 —
2026-10-04
Mark Stone
 VGK @ VAN UNDER 2.5 best -125 60.3% 52.0% +8.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-04
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs FLA UNDER 3.5 best -130 61.3% 52.5% +8.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-04
Pavel Dorofeyev
 NYR vs UTA UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.6% 43.4% +6.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-04
Alex DeBrincat
 DET vs WPG UNDER 3.5 best -120 58.0% 51.0% +6.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-04
Viktor Arvidsson
 DET vs WPG UNDER 2.5 best -130 60.3% 52.5% +6.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-04
Jack Eichel
 VGK @ VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -160 64.3% 57.5% +4.4% 2 W +0.63 —
2026-10-04
William Karlsson
 VGK @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.8% 40.9% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-04
Bobby McMann
 SEA vs CGY UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.6% 47.0% +2.4% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-04
Josh Morrissey
 WPG @ DET UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.7% 38.2% +2.2% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Luca Cagnoni
 SJS vs LAK UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.8% 40.9% +7.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Quinton Byfield
 LAK @ SJS UNDER 2.5 best +100 53.1% 46.5% +6.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Michael Kesselring
 SJS vs LAK UNDER 1.5 best -135 65.1% 53.5% +13.3% 0 W +0.74 —
2026-10-03
Artemi Panarin
 LAK @ SJS UNDER 2.5 best +130 47.1% 40.6% +8.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Adrian Kempe
 LAK @ SJS UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.2% 41.7% +6.2% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Scott Laughton
 LAK @ SJS UNDER 1.5 best +120 47.8% 42.5% +5.1% 0 W +1.20 —
2026-10-03
Erik Haula
 LAK @ SJS UNDER 1.5 best +125 47.5% 41.7% +6.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Elias Pettersson
 VAN vs CGY UNDER 2.5 best -120 62.2% 51.0% +14.1% 1 W +0.83 —
2026-10-03
Brock Boeser
 VAN vs CGY UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.1% 50.0% +6.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Brendan Gallagher
 VAN vs CGY UNDER 1.5 best -115 59.7% 50.0% +11.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Mason McTavish
 STL @ COL UNDER 1.5 best +130 47.4% 40.6% +9.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Artturi Lehkonen
 COL vs STL UNDER 2.5 best +105 57.7% 45.5% +18.2% 2 W +1.05 —
2026-10-03
Brent Burns
 COL vs STL UNDER 1.5 best +135 45.8% 39.8% +7.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
JJ Peterka
 BOS @ MIN UNDER 2.5 best -150 67.6% 56.3% +12.6% 2 W +0.67 —
2026-10-03
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN vs BOS UNDER 3.5 best -120 58.8% 51.0% +7.7% 3 W +0.83 —
2026-10-03
Matthew Wood
 NSH vs DAL UNDER 1.5 best +100 54.7% 46.5% +9.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Nils Lundkvist
 DAL @ NSH UNDER 1.5 best -150 67.5% 55.8% +12.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Ross Colton
 NSH vs DAL UNDER 1.5 best +125 50.8% 41.7% +14.4% 0 W +1.25 —
2026-10-03
Esa Lindell
 DAL @ NSH UNDER 1.5 best -130 63.1% 53.1% +11.6% 0 W +0.77 —
2026-10-03
Owen Michaels
 EDM vs SEA UNDER 1.5 best -135 65.4% 53.5% +13.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Vasily Podkolzin
 EDM vs SEA UNDER 3.5 best -195 75.3% 58.1% +13.9% 2 W +0.51 —
2026-10-03
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM vs SEA UNDER 3.5 best -115 60.0% 48.2% +12.3% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Mattias Ekholm
 EDM vs SEA UNDER 1.5 best -105 54.4% 47.5% +6.2% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-10-03
Denton Mateychuk
 CBJ vs UTA UNDER 1.5 best -120 59.9% 51.0% +9.8% 1 W +0.83 —
2026-10-03
Kent Johnson
 CBJ vs UTA UNDER 1.5 best +110 54.0% 44.3% +13.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Dmitri Voronkov
 CBJ vs UTA UNDER 1.5 best -105 57.8% 48.0% +12.8% 1 W +0.95 —
2026-10-03
Valeri Nichushkin
 CBJ vs UTA UNDER 1.5 best +135 45.0% 39.6% +5.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT vs MTL UNDER 2.5 best -145 62.8% 53.6% +6.1% 2 W +0.69 —
2026-10-03
Noah Dobson
 MTL @ PIT UNDER 1.5 best +135 46.0% 39.6% +8.2% 1 W +1.35 —
2026-10-03
Alexandre Carrier
 MTL @ PIT UNDER 1.5 best -140 66.8% 54.5% +14.5% 0 W +0.71 —
2026-10-03
Tommy Novak
 PIT vs MTL UNDER 1.5 best +135 47.5% 39.8% +11.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Mike Matheson
 MTL @ PIT UNDER 1.5 best +120 51.3% 42.5% +13.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Chris Kreider
 MTL @ PIT UNDER 1.5 best +115 49.0% 43.7% +5.4% 1 W +1.15 —
2026-10-03
Jake Guentzel
 TBL vs WSH UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.4% 41.7% +6.6% 2 W +1.25 —
2026-10-03
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT @ TOR UNDER 1.5 best +100 55.3% 46.5% +10.5% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-03
Jack Quinn
 BUF vs CHI UNDER 2.5 best -105 55.7% 46.8% +8.8% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Brandt Clarke
 LAK @ SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.7% +2.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Trevor Moore
 LAK @ SJS OVER 1.5 lean -150 61.3% 55.8% +2.1% 2 W +0.67 —
2026-10-03
Zayne Parekh
 CGY @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.6% +3.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Linus Karlsson
 VAN vs CGY UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.3% 48.0% +2.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Joel Farabee
 CGY @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.8% +4.4% 1 W +1.35 —
2026-10-03
Morgan Frost
 CGY @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.1% 60.2% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Sam Malinski
 COL vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.2% 60.2% +3.0% 1 W +0.56 —
2026-10-03
Brock Nelson
 COL vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.6% 50.8% +3.7% 1 W +0.74 —
2026-10-03
Maxim Shabanov
 MIN vs BOS UNDER 1.5 lean -110 54.9% 45.7% +4.8% 0 W +0.91 —
2026-10-03
Steven Stamkos
 NSH vs DAL UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.0% 46.9% +4.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Kyle Palmieri
 NYI vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.0% 54.5% +2.8% 2 W +0.71 —
2026-10-03
Evan Bouchard
 EDM vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.4% 42.5% +4.3% 2 W +1.20 —
2026-10-03
Vince Dunn
 SEA @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -175 65.0% 59.4% +2.2% 1 W +0.57 —
2026-10-03
Matthew Knies
 CBJ vs UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.8% 43.4% +2.8% 1 W +1.15 —
2026-10-03
Mathieu Olivier
 CBJ vs UTA UNDER 1.5 lean -125 58.1% 52.0% +4.6% 1 W +0.80 —
2026-10-03
Mikhail Sergachev
 UTA @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -195 67.7% 61.8% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Cole Hutson
 WSH @ TBL UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.9% 46.5% +3.8% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-03
Brandon Hagel
 TBL vs WSH UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.5% 54.5% +3.7% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
Brayden Point
 TBL vs WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -145 62.0% 55.4% +4.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-03
John Carlson
 TBL vs WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.3% 48.4% +3.2% 0 W +0.80 —
2026-10-03
Drake Batherson
 OTT @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.5% 55.8% +2.5% 2 W +0.67 —
2026-10-03
Warren Foegele
 OTT @ TOR UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.4% 47.5% +2.3% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-10-03
Tage Thompson
 BUF vs CHI UNDER 3.5 lean -130 58.6% 52.5% +3.7% 4 L -1.00 —
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