← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2026-10-02
Rasmus Andersson
 VGK vs ANA UNDER 1.5 best +130 45.8% 40.9% +5.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-02
Tomas Hertl
 VGK vs ANA UNDER 2.5 best -155 64.5% 56.7% +6.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-02
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs WSH UNDER 2.5 best -115 56.2% 50.0% +5.1% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-02
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR vs WSH UNDER 1.5 best +100 52.6% 45.8% +5.2% 0 W +1.00 —
2026-10-02
Pavel Dorofeyev
 NYR @ DET UNDER 2.5 best +100 52.6% 46.9% +5.1% 2 W +1.00 —
2026-10-02
Trevor Connelly
 VGK vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean -120 56.1% 51.0% +2.9% 0 W +0.83 —
2026-10-02
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ VGK UNDER 3.5 lean -150 62.8% 54.0% +4.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-02
Jack Eichel
 VGK vs ANA UNDER 3.5 lean -150 62.6% 55.8% +4.3% 2 W +0.67 —
2026-10-02
Jordan Staal
 CAR vs WSH UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.9% 48.0% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ SJS UNDER 2.5 best +110 51.0% 44.6% +7.1% 2 W +1.10 —
2026-10-01
Vasily Podkolzin
 EDM @ VAN UNDER 2.5 best -130 64.1% 53.1% +13.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Jake DeBrusk
 VAN vs EDM UNDER 2.5 best +105 52.8% 45.5% +8.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Mattias Ekholm
 EDM @ VAN UNDER 1.5 best +110 53.0% 44.6% +11.2% 0 W +1.10 —
2026-10-01
Matvei Gridin
 CGY vs SEA UNDER 2.5 best -120 57.9% 51.0% +6.1% 0 W +0.83 —
2026-10-01
Morgan Frost
 CGY vs SEA UNDER 2.5 best -145 63.3% 55.4% +6.9% 2 W +0.69 —
2026-10-01
Vince Dunn
 SEA @ CGY UNDER 2.5 best -145 62.4% 53.6% +5.4% 2 W +0.69 —
2026-10-01
Adam Larsson
 SEA @ CGY UNDER 1.5 best -115 57.4% 50.0% +7.3% 1 W +0.87 —
2026-10-01
Mikhail Sergachev
 UTA vs CHI UNDER 2.5 best -150 64.9% 56.3% +8.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
MacKenzie Weegar
 UTA vs CHI UNDER 1.5 best +145 44.6% 38.4% +9.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Maxim Shabanov
 MIN @ NSH UNDER 1.5 best +125 52.6% 41.7% +18.3% 0 W +1.25 —
2026-10-01
Matthew Wood
 NSH vs MIN UNDER 1.5 best +105 53.3% 45.5% +9.3% 0 W +1.05 —
2026-10-01
Ross Colton
 NSH vs MIN UNDER 1.5 best -105 54.2% 47.5% +5.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Noah Ostlund
 BUF @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 best -140 63.5% 54.5% +8.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Denton Mateychuk
 CBJ vs BUF UNDER 1.5 best -140 61.6% 54.5% +5.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Kent Johnson
 CBJ vs BUF UNDER 1.5 best +120 53.2% 42.8% +17.0% 1 W +1.20 —
2026-10-01
Jack Quinn
 BUF @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 best +100 56.5% 46.5% +13.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Valeri Nichushkin
 CBJ vs BUF UNDER 1.5 best +135 44.8% 39.8% +5.2% 0 W +1.35 —
2026-10-01
Brayden Point
 TBL @ NYR UNDER 2.5 best -155 64.2% 56.7% +5.7% 1 W +0.65 —
2026-10-01
Matvei Michkov
 PHI @ NJD UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.2% 40.6% +6.3% 1 W +1.30 —
2026-10-01
Aleksander Barkov
 FLA @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.6% 56.7% +3.0% 1 W +0.65 —
2026-10-01
Zeev Buium
 VAN vs EDM UNDER 1.5 lean -145 61.9% 55.4% +4.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Elias Pettersson
 VAN vs EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.3% 38.4% +3.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -180 66.5% 58.6% +3.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Simon Nemec
 CGY vs SEA UNDER 1.5 lean -110 54.6% 49.0% +4.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Yegor Sharangovich
 CGY vs SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.8% 43.4% +4.9% 1 W +1.15 —
2026-10-01
Brandon Montour
 SEA @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.4% 46.8% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Anton Frondell
 CHI @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.6% 49.0% +4.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Andrew Peeke
 UTA vs CHI UNDER 1.5 lean -160 63.1% 54.6% +2.5% 0 W +0.63 —
2026-10-01
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ NSH UNDER 3.5 lean -150 62.7% 56.3% +4.5% 3 W +0.67 —
2026-10-01
Konsta Helenius
 BUF @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean -125 56.8% 52.0% +2.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Matthew Knies
 CBJ vs BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.7% +2.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Josh Doan
 BUF @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.7% 57.5% +3.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Jake Guentzel
 TBL @ NYR UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.5% +2.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Victor Hedman
 TBL @ NYR UNDER 1.5 lean -140 59.8% 54.5% +2.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-01
Brett Pesce
 NJD vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean -150 61.7% 55.8% +2.8% 0 W +0.67 —
2026-09-30
Tommy Novak
 PIT @ PHI UNDER 1.5 best +120 48.7% 42.2% +7.2% 0 W +1.20 —
2026-09-30
Alex Laferriere
 LAK @ COL OVER 2.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.4% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-09-30
Nazem Kadri
 COL vs LAK OVER 2.5 lean +140 43.2% 38.9% +3.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-09-30
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -165 65.2% 58.4% +4.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-09-29
Roman Kantserov
 CHI @ VGK UNDER 1.5 best +145 46.7% 38.2% +14.4% 1 W +1.45 —
2026-09-29
Alex Formenton
 EDM vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best +110 55.0% 44.3% +15.5% 2 W +1.10 —
2026-09-29
Jake Walman
 EDM vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best -180 69.0% 60.2% +7.3% 1 W +0.56 —
2026-09-29
Kasperi Kapanen
 EDM vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best -165 65.8% 58.9% +5.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-09-29
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM vs VAN UNDER 3.5 best -140 62.5% 54.5% +7.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-09-29
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR vs FLA UNDER 1.5 best +110 51.1% 44.6% +7.4% 1 W +1.10 —
2026-09-29
Jordan Staal
 CAR vs FLA UNDER 1.5 best +105 51.5% 45.9% +5.7% 0 W +1.05 —
2026-09-29
Evan Bouchard
 EDM vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.3% 42.2% +4.0% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-09-29
Connor Murphy
 EDM vs VAN UNDER 1.5 lean -120 56.7% 46.4% +4.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-09-29
JJ Peterka
 BOS vs NYR UNDER 2.5 lean -200 69.2% 60.0% +3.8% 1 W +0.50 —
2026-09-29
Hampus Lindholm
 BOS vs NYR UNDER 1.5 lean -120 56.0% 51.0% +2.7% 0 W +0.83 —
2026-09-29
Darren Raddysh
 TOR vs MTL OVER 2.5 lean +120 47.0% 42.2% +3.4% 3 W +1.20 —
2026-09-29
Chris Kreider
 MTL @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.9% 60.4% +3.1% 1 W +0.54 —
2026-06-14
Brett Howden
 VGK vs CAR UNDER 1.5 best +110 51.5% 44.6% +8.2% 1 W +1.10 —
2026-06-14
Jordan Staal
 CAR @ VGK UNDER 1.5 best +120 49.0% 42.5% +7.8% 1 W +1.20 —
2026-06-14
Taylor Hall
 CAR @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.6% 56.3% +2.7% 2 W +0.67 —
2026-06-11
Brett Howden
 VGK @ CAR UNDER 1.5 best +100 53.8% 46.9% +7.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-06-11
Jordan Staal
 CAR vs VGK UNDER 1.5 best +110 50.4% 44.6% +5.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-06-11
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.1% 51.0% +2.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-06-11
Jordan Martinook
 CAR vs VGK UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.7% 48.0% +2.9% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-06-09
Brett Howden
 VGK vs CAR UNDER 1.5 lean -105 53.1% 48.0% +3.6% 1 W +0.95 —
2026-06-04
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.0% 47.5% +3.4% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-06-02
Logan Stankoven
 CAR vs VGK UNDER 2.5 best -110 55.7% 49.0% +6.3% 2 W +0.91 —
2026-06-02
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs VGK UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.8% 44.6% +6.7% 1 W +1.10 —
2026-06-02
Seth Jarvis
 CAR vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.2% 45.5% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-06-02
Ivan Barbashev
 VGK @ CAR OVER 1.5 lean +165 38.9% 35.4% +3.2% 3 W +1.65 —
2026-05-29
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs MTL UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.4% 39.8% +6.7% 1 W +1.35 —
2026-05-29
Alexandre Texier
 MTL @ CAR OVER 0.5 lean -135 58.7% 54.1% +2.2% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-05-27
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ MTL UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.6% 42.8% +7.0% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-05-25
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ MTL UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.3% 44.3% +5.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-05-25
Alex Newhook
 MTL vs CAR UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.7% 48.0% +3.0% 1 W +0.95 —
2026-05-24
Devon Toews
 COL @ VGK OVER 1.5 lean +140 43.5% 38.9% +4.3% 2 W +1.40 —
2026-05-23
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs MTL UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.1% 42.5% +5.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-05-23
Logan Stankoven
 CAR vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.8% 48.0% +3.0% 1 W +0.95 —
2026-05-23
Alex Newhook
 MTL @ CAR UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.6% 48.0% +2.6% 1 W +0.95 —
2026-05-23
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR vs MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.1% 38.2% +3.1% 1 W +1.45 —
2026-05-22
Josh Manson
 COL vs VGK UNDER 1.5 lean -110 53.9% 49.0% +2.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-05-21
Logan Stankoven
 CAR vs MTL UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.4% 45.9% +5.3% 2 W +1.05 —
2026-05-21
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs MTL UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.7% 40.6% +7.4% 2 W +1.30 —
2026-05-21
Alex Newhook
 MTL @ CAR UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.9% 48.0% +3.2% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-05-20
Sam Malinski
 COL vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.9% 54.1% +4.2% 1 W +0.74 —
2026-05-20
Brent Burns
 COL vs VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.6% 40.9% +5.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-05-18
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.5% 41.7% +4.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-05-18
Mike Matheson
 MTL @ BUF OVER 1.5 lean +160 39.6% 35.9% +3.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-05-16
Alex Newhook
 MTL vs BUF UNDER 1.5 best +120 48.8% 42.8% +7.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-05-16
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.1% 45.5% +2.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-05-14
Alex Newhook
 MTL @ BUF UNDER 1.5 best +125 48.0% 41.7% +7.9% 0 W +1.25 —
2026-05-14
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs VGK UNDER 3.5 lean -135 60.2% 54.1% +4.8% 2 W +0.74 —
2026-05-13
Ross Colton
 COL vs MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.7% 42.8% +5.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-05-13
Ryan Hartman
 MIN @ COL UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.9% +3.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-05-13
Josh Manson
 COL vs MIN UNDER 1.5 lean -125 57.1% 52.0% +2.8% 1 W +0.80 —
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9