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SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2026-03-29
Owen Tippett
 PHI vs DAL UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.6% +2.3% 2 W +1.30 —
2026-03-29
Cole Caufield
 MTL @ CAR UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.7% 43.4% +2.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-29
Mackie Samoskevich
 FLA @ NYR UNDER 2.5 lean -130 59.0% 53.1% +4.3% 2 W +0.77 —
2026-03-29
Vinnie Hinostroza
 FLA @ NYR UNDER 1.5 lean -135 59.2% 54.1% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-28
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH @ VGK UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.1% 41.7% +6.0% 2 W +1.25 —
2026-03-28
Mackie Samoskevich
 FLA @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best -130 59.6% 53.1% +5.5% 1 W +0.77 —
2026-03-28
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best +100 52.5% 46.9% +5.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-28
Vinnie Hinostroza
 FLA @ NYI UNDER 1.5 best -105 53.9% 48.0% +5.3% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-03-28
Blake Coleman
 CGY vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.4% 42.8% +4.3% 2 W +1.20 —
2026-03-28
Owen Tippett
 PHI @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.5% 41.7% +2.4% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-03-28
Brent Burns
 COL vs WPG UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.8% 39.8% +3.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-03-28
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR vs NJD UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.7% 41.7% +5.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-03-28
Matt Savoie
 EDM vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.2% 37.5% +3.0% 1 W +1.50 —
2026-03-28
Matthew Schaefer
 NYI vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.0% 39.8% +3.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-03-26
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA @ CGY OVER 1.5 lean +125 46.4% 41.7% +4.5% 3 W +1.25 —
2026-03-24
Jordan Spence
 OTT @ DET UNDER 1.5 best +135 46.1% 39.8% +8.2% 0 W +1.35 —
2026-03-24
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.5% +2.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-24
Timo Meier
 NJD @ DAL UNDER 3.5 lean -145 60.5% 55.4% +2.2% 3 W +0.69 —
2026-03-24
Kris Letang
 PIT vs COL OVER 1.5 lean +125 45.9% 41.7% +3.3% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-03-24
Evan Rodrigues
 FLA vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.2% 46.9% +2.5% 2 W +1.00 —
2026-03-24
Seth Jones
 FLA vs SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.0% 38.2% +2.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-03-24
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.2% 43.7% +3.6% 1 W +1.15 —
2026-03-24
Viktor Arvidsson
 BOS vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.5% 39.8% +4.5% 1 W +1.35 —
2026-03-22
Nazem Kadri
 COL @ WSH OVER 2.5 lean +110 49.2% 44.6% +3.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-03-22
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.8% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-21
Owen Tippett
 PHI @ SJS UNDER 3.5 lean -150 61.4% 56.3% +2.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-03-21
Vladimir Tarasenko
 MIN vs DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.1% 38.2% +3.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-03-20
Mikael Granlund
 ANA @ UTA OVER 1.5 best +125 47.5% 41.7% +6.9% 3 W +1.25 —
2026-03-20
Seth Jones
 FLA @ CGY UNDER 1.5 best +140 43.9% 38.9% +5.4% 0 W +1.40 —
2026-03-20
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.7% 50.0% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-20
Cale Makar
 COL @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.5% +3.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-20
Nathan MacKinnon
 COL @ CHI UNDER 4.5 lean -120 56.7% 51.0% +4.0% 4 W +0.83 —
2026-03-20
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.9% 40.9% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-20
Alexander Nikishin
 CAR @ TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.2% 45.9% +3.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-19
Owen Tippett
 PHI @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.7% 44.6% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-19
Matt Savoie
 EDM vs FLA UNDER 1.5 lean +110 48.7% 44.6% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-19
Mackie Samoskevich
 FLA @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.5% 54.5% +3.7% 0 W +0.71 —
2026-03-19
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.4% 40.6% +4.4% 2 W +1.30 —
2026-03-19
Vladimir Tarasenko
 MIN vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -170 64.4% 58.6% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-18
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA vs PHI OVER 1.5 lean +115 47.6% 43.7% +2.4% 3 W +1.15 —
2026-03-17
Seth Jones
 FLA @ VAN UNDER 1.5 best +140 44.5% 39.1% +6.9% 1 W +1.40 —
2026-03-17
Matt Savoie
 EDM vs SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.5% +3.2% 1 W +1.20 —
2026-03-17
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ CHI UNDER 3.5 lean -110 54.5% 49.0% +4.0% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-03-17
Vladimir Tarasenko
 MIN @ CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.1% 39.8% +3.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-03-17
Cole Caufield
 MTL vs BOS UNDER 3.5 lean -130 58.5% 53.1% +3.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-16
James van Riemsdyk
 DET vs CGY UNDER 1.5 lean -125 56.7% 52.0% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-03-15
Mackie Samoskevich
 FLA @ SEA UNDER 2.5 best -150 63.4% 56.3% +5.7% 1 W +0.67 —
2026-03-15
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ SEA UNDER 3.5 lean -160 64.5% 57.5% +4.8% 3 W +0.63 —
2026-03-15
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.9% 50.0% +2.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-15
Cole Caufield
 MTL vs ANA UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.0% 54.5% +2.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-14
Matthew Schaefer
 NYI vs CGY UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.5% 40.6% +4.6% 2 W +1.30 —
2026-03-14
Cole Caufield
 MTL vs SJS UNDER 3.5 lean -120 56.8% 50.5% +4.2% 3 W +0.83 —
2026-03-14
Mikael Granlund
 ANA @ OTT OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.0% 46.9% +2.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-03-12
Alexander Nikishin
 CAR vs STL UNDER 1.5 best +100 53.3% 46.9% +6.5% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-03-12
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -145 60.6% 55.4% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-12
Mackie Samoskevich
 FLA vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.6% 57.2% +3.0% 1 W +0.65 —
2026-03-12
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ TOR UNDER 3.5 lean +105 50.7% 45.9% +3.9% 2 W +1.05 —
2026-03-10
Victor Hedman
 TBL vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 best +150 43.4% 37.5% +8.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-03-10
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ WPG UNDER 3.5 lean -125 56.8% 52.0% +2.2% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-03-10
Alex Laferriere
 LAK @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.0% 42.8% +3.3% 2 W +1.20 —
2026-03-09
Alex Bump
 PHI vs NYR OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.7% 45.5% +4.0% 4 W +1.05 —
2026-03-08
Alex DeBrincat
 DET @ NJD UNDER 3.5 lean -135 58.6% 54.1% +2.0% 3 W +0.74 —
2026-03-08
Nazem Kadri
 COL vs MIN OVER 2.5 lean -105 53.2% 48.0% +3.8% 5 W +0.95 —
2026-03-07
Darren Raddysh
 TBL @ TOR UNDER 2.5 best +135 44.8% 39.8% +5.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-03-07
Alex Laferriere
 LAK vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.2% 44.6% +3.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-03-07
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.7% 52.0% +3.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-06
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ DET UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.5% 40.6% +7.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-06
Braeden Bowman
 VGK vs MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.6% +3.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-03-06
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs MTL UNDER 3.5 lean +100 51.8% 46.5% +3.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-03-05
Darren Raddysh
 TBL @ WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.5% +2.2% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-03-05
Victor Hedman
 TBL @ WPG UNDER 1.5 lean -110 54.3% 49.0% +3.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-03-05
Steven Stamkos
 NSH vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.4% 41.7% +4.4% 1 W +1.25 —
2026-03-05
Sean Durzi
 UTA @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.7% 47.5% +2.9% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-03-05
Will Cuylle
 NYR vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.9% 54.5% +2.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-03-04
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs NYI UNDER 3.5 best +105 51.8% 45.5% +6.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-04
Jeffrey Viel
 ANA vs NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +105 51.1% 45.9% +4.7% 0 W +1.05 —
2026-03-04
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.7% 39.8% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-04
Dylan Larkin
 DET vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.2% 42.8% +3.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-03
Brent Burns
 COL @ ANA UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.2% 38.2% +5.9% 0 W +1.45 —
2026-03-03
Logan Stanley
 WPG vs CHI UNDER 2.5 best -200 71.3% 62.5% +7.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-03
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs COL UNDER 3.5 lean -105 53.4% 47.5% +4.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-03-03
Gabriel Landeskog
 COL @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.9% +2.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-03
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.6% 40.6% +4.8% 2 W +1.30 —
2026-03-03
Matt Duchene
 DAL @ CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.7% 39.1% +2.6% 0 W +1.40 —
2026-03-03
Cole Perfetti
 WPG vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.2% 47.5% +3.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-03
Uvis Balinskis
 FLA @ NJD UNDER 1.5 lean -110 53.8% 49.0% +2.8% 1 W +0.91 —
2026-03-03
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.1% 40.6% +3.8% 2 W +1.30 —
2026-03-02
Brent Burns
 COL @ LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.7% 41.4% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-02
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.5% 40.6% +4.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-02
Matt Duchene
 DAL @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.4% 38.2% +4.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-01
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs CGY UNDER 3.5 best +105 52.8% 45.5% +8.2% 9 L -1.00 —
2026-03-01
Kiefer Sherwood
 SJS vs WPG UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.1% 43.4% +5.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-01
Logan Stanley
 WPG @ SJS UNDER 1.5 best +125 49.5% 41.7% +11.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-03-01
Matvei Gridin
 CGY @ ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.8% 38.0% +2.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-03-01
Mason McTavish
 ANA vs CGY UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.4% 52.0% +3.4% 0 W +0.80 —
2026-03-01
Cole Perfetti
 WPG @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -125 56.8% 52.0% +2.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-03-01
Dylan Guenther
 UTA vs CHI UNDER 3.5 lean -115 55.0% 50.0% +2.9% 2 W +0.87 —
2026-03-01
Ilya Mikheyev
 CHI @ UTA OVER 1.5 lean +135 43.4% 39.8% +2.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-03-01
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.6% 39.8% +4.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-02-28
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL vs NSH UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.0% 39.8% +5.8% 5 L -1.00 —
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