← Stats / BUF @ TBL

BUF @ TBL

Thursday, March 6, 2025 · 6:00 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's most recent starter as the probable starter (confirmed starters are not published in advance). Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Buffalo Sabres
36-39-7 · Away
5 – 6
FINAL
Tampa Bay Lightning
47-27-8 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock closing line
Moneyline
BUF +195 · TBL -260
Puck Line
BUF +1.5 (-115) · TBL -1.5 (-105)
Total
O 6.5 (+100) · U (-120)

Graded: total 11 → OVER W · TBL -1.5 L

Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Game Total
Over 6.5
 BUFo6.5 55%
33-27
60%
3-2
70%
7-3
46%
13-15
0%
0-4
64%
33-19-7
TBLo6.5 41%
25-36
20%
1-4
40%
4-6
36%
11-20
0%
0-4
44%
25-32-3
Puck Line
cover %
 BUF+1.5 60%
36-24
40%
2-3
60%
6-4
50%
14-14
75%
3-1
-10.03u
29-30
TBL-1.5 46%
28-33
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
55%
17-14
25%
1-3
+13.01u
34-26
Moneyline
win %
 BUF dog +195 40%
24-36
20%
1-4
50%
5-5
32%
9-19
75%
3-1
-7.20u
14-25
TBL fav -260 59%
36-25
80%
4-1
90%
9-1
71%
22-9
25%
1-3
+4.40u
30-14
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown (closing)
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 1.5 (DraftKings)
 DK 1.5 o-145/u+114 FD 1.5 o-144/u+114 BUF 62%
37-23
40%
2-3
60%
6-4
64%
18-10
75%
3-1
62%
37-23
 1.93 1.13 / 0.80
TBL 44%
27-34
40%
2-3
40%
4-6
36%
11-20
75%
3-1
44%
27-34
 1.75 1.07 / 0.69
2nd Period
over 2.5 (DraftKings)
 DK 2.5 o+150/u-195 FD 1.5 o-196/u+152 BUF 37%
22-38
40%
2-3
40%
4-6
36%
10-18
25%
1-3
65%
39-21
 2.25 0.97 / 1.28
TBL 39%
24-37
20%
1-4
30%
3-7
39%
12-19
25%
1-3
56%
34-27
 2.13 1.16 / 0.97
3rd Period
over 2.5 (FanDuel)
 FD 2.5 o+156/u-205 BUF 45%
27-33
40%
2-3
40%
4-6
36%
10-18
0%
0-4
48%
25-27
 2.30 1.02 / 1.28
TBL 33%
20-41
20%
1-4
40%
4-6
32%
10-21
0%
0-4
36%
20-35
 2.16 1.26 / 0.90
Team Comparison '24-25
BUFTBL
Record (W-L-OTL)36-39-747-27-8
Points %48.2%62.2%
Goals for / game3.283.59
Goals against / game3.522.67
Shots for / game27.828.5
Shots against / game28.928.2
Power play %18.8%25.9%
Penalty kill %76.3%81.6%
Faceoff %47.7%50.1%
1st period GF / GA1.12 / 0.831.11 / 0.72
2nd period GF / GA1.02 / 1.301.22 / 0.94
3rd period GF / GA1.05 / 1.301.18 / 0.91
Avg game total6.806.26
Starting Goalies from the box score
20 saves on 26 shots · 6 GA · L
28 saves on 33 shots · 5 GA · W
P1P2P3OTSOGPP
BUF3200331/4
TBL2310261/3
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line
BUFPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Alex Tuch G 0.5
o+195
 32% 60% 25%1/4 1 O
Tage Thompson G 0.5
o+155
 46% 50% 25%1/4 1 O
JJ Peterka G 0.5
o+190
 24% 40% 0%0/4 1 O
Ryan McLeod G 0.5
o+525
 19% 30% 0%0/2 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin G 0.5
o+400
 17% 30% 25%1/4 1 O
Yanni Gourde G 0.5
o+450
 17% 20% 50%1/2 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand G 0.5
o+325
 23% 20% 25%1/4 1 O
Bowen Byram G 0.5
o+850
 10% 20% 33%1/3 0 U
Jiri Kulich G 0.5
o+350
 22% 20% — 0 U
Mattias Samuelsson G 0.5
o+1200
 8% 10% 0%0/2 0 U
Dylan Cozens G 0.5
o+300
 18% 10% 75%3/4 0 U
Jack Quinn G 0.5
o+350
 15% 10% 0%0/2 0 U
Connor Clifton G 0.5
o+1750
 0% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Sam Lafferty G 0.5
o+850
 5% 0% 0%0/2 0 U
Jordan Greenway G 0.5
o+550
 12% 0% 25%1/4 0 U
Beck Malenstyn G 0.5
o+900
 7% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Jacob Bryson G 0.5
o+2250
 0% 0% 0%0/2 0 U
Peyton Krebs G 0.5
o+700
 7% 0% 0%0/4 1 O
Owen Power G 0.5
o+700
 10% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Zach Benson G 0.5
o+500
 17% 0% 25%1/4 0 U
Alex Tuch PTS 0.5
o-135 / u+100
 57% 80% 50%2/4 1 O
Rasmus Dahlin PTS 0.5
o-135 / u+100
 62% 80% 75%3/4 2 O
JJ Peterka PTS 0.5
o-150 / u+110
 60% 80% 25%1/4 2 O
Tage Thompson PTS 0.5
o-165 / u+125
 67% 60% 25%1/4 1 O
Jack Quinn PTS 0.5
o+145 / u-200
 34% 50% 50%1/2 0 U
Owen Power PTS 0.5
o+175 / u-240
 42% 50% 25%1/4 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand PTS 0.5
o+120 / u-160
 48% 40% 50%2/4 1 O
Jiri Kulich PTS 0.5
o+160 / u-220
 30% 40% — 0 U
Bowen Byram PTS 0.5
o+200 / u-275
 38% 30% 67%2/3 0 U
Dylan Cozens PTS 0.5
o+140 / u-185
 40% 30% 75%3/4 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin A 0.5
o+105 / u-140
 54% 70% 75%3/4 1 O
JJ Peterka A 0.5
o+145 / u-195
 47% 50% 25%1/4 1 O
Owen Power A 0.5
o+230 / u-325
 35% 50% 25%1/4 0 U
Alex Tuch A 0.5
o+160 / u-220
 35% 40% 25%1/4 0 U
Tage Thompson A 0.5
o+150 / u-200
 37% 40% 0%0/4 0 U
Jack Quinn A 0.5
o+275 / u-400
 23% 40% 50%1/2 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand A 0.5
o+210 / u-300
 33% 30% 25%1/4 0 U
Bowen Byram A 0.5
o+250 / u-375
 32% 30% 33%1/3 0 U
Dylan Cozens A 0.5
o+275 / u-400
 27% 20% 25%1/4 0 U
Jiri Kulich A 0.5
o+325 / u-475
 13% 20% — 0 U
Jiri Kulich SOG 1.5
o-135 / u+100
 72% 70% — 3 O
Alex Tuch SOG 2.5
o+120 / u-155
 40% 60% 0%0/4 4 O
Tage Thompson SOG 2.5
o-170 / u+125
 54% 60% 50%2/4 5 O
Dylan Cozens SOG 1.5
o-170 / u+125
 63% 60% 100%4/4 1 U
Jack Quinn SOG 1.5
o-125 / u-105
 53% 60% 100%2/2 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin SOG 2.5
o+115 / u-155
 48% 30% 50%2/4 5 O
JJ Peterka SOG 2.5
o+110 / u-145
 40% 30% 25%1/4 2 U
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen SV 24.5
o-130 / u-105
 50% 40% 0%0/2 20 U
TBLPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Brandon Hagel G 0.5
o+175
 39% 70% 25%1/4 0 U
Nikita Kucherov G 0.5
o+125
 41% 50% 0%0/4 0 U
Nick Paul G 0.5
o+275
 31% 40% 25%1/4 1 O
Brayden Point G 0.5
o+130
 50% 40% 25%1/4 0 U
Victor Hedman G 0.5
o+450
 15% 30% 0%0/4 0 U
Erik Cernak G 0.5
o+1000
 6% 30% 33%1/3 0 U
Mitchell Chaffee G 0.5
o+425
 21% 30% 50%1/2 0 U
Luke Glendening G 0.5
o+800
 7% 20% 0%0/4 0 U
Jake Guentzel G 0.5
o+160
 38% 20% 0%0/3 3 O
Ryan McDonagh G 0.5
o+1100
 3% 10% 0%0/2 0 U
Zemgus Girgensons G 0.5
o+600
 2% 10% — 0 U
Anthony Cirelli G 0.5
o+275
 32% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Gage Goncalves G 0.5
o+475
 5% 10% — 0 U
Darren Raddysh G 0.5
o+800
 6% 0% 0%0/4 1 O
J.J. Moser G 0.5
o+1000
 6% 0% 0%0/2 0 U
Emil Lilleberg G 0.5
o+1500
 0% 0% 0%0/2 0 U
Brayden Point PTS 0.5
o-230 / u+170
 77% 80% 50%2/4 1 O
Brandon Hagel PTS 0.5
o-185 / u+135
 69% 80% 50%2/4 2 O
Jake Guentzel PTS 0.5
o-195 / u+145
 67% 60% 67%2/3 3 O
Victor Hedman PTS 0.5
o-145 / u+110
 56% 50% 25%1/4 0 U
Nick Paul PTS 0.5
o+130 / u-175
 53% 50% 50%2/4 2 O
Anthony Cirelli PTS 0.5
o-105 / u-125
 51% 50% 75%3/4 0 U
Nikita Kucherov PTS 1.5
o+100 / u-130
 41% 40% 0%0/4 2 O
Nikita Kucherov A 0.5
o-225 / u+165
 66% 50% 50%2/4 2 O
Jake Guentzel A 0.5
o+110 / u-150
 42% 50% 67%2/3 0 U
Brayden Point A 0.5
o+105 / u-140
 39% 50% 25%1/4 1 O
Anthony Cirelli A 0.5
o+170 / u-230
 32% 50% 75%3/4 0 U
Victor Hedman A 0.5
o-105 / u-125
 48% 40% 25%1/4 0 U
Brandon Hagel A 0.5
o+115 / u-155
 48% 40% 25%1/4 2 O
Nick Paul A 0.5
o+260 / u-400
 24% 10% 50%2/4 1 O
Brayden Point SOG 2.5
o+105 / u-140
 50% 50% 50%2/4 1 U
Brandon Hagel SOG 2.5
o+110 / u-145
 54% 50% 25%1/4 1 U
Victor Hedman SOG 2.5
o+130 / u-175
 44% 40% 50%2/4 0 U
Nikita Kucherov SOG 3.5
o+130 / u-175
 47% 40% 25%1/4 1 U
Anthony Cirelli SOG 1.5
o-130 / u-105
 68% 40% 50%2/4 2 O
Jake Guentzel SOG 2.5
o+115 / u-150
 42% 30% 33%1/3 3 O
Andrei Vasilevskiy SV 24.5
o-110 / u-120
 50% 80% 50%1/2 28 O

Open in Prop Finder →

Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Apr 15, 2024 at TBL TBL 2–4 0–11–21–1 6 — BUF
Feb 29, 2024 at TBL TBL 2–3 OT 1–11–00–1 5 — BUF
Jan 20, 2024 at BUF TBL 3–1 2–00–11–0 4 — TBL
Oct 17, 2023 at BUF TBL 2–3 OT 0–21–01–0 5 — BUF
Mar 4, 2023 at BUF TBL 3–5 1–10–32–1 8 — BUF
Feb 23, 2023 at TBL TBL 5–6 OT 1–11–33–1 11 — BUF
Nov 28, 2022 at BUF TBL 6–5 OT 2–21–12–2 11 — TBL
Nov 5, 2022 at TBL TBL 5–3 1–11–13–1 8 — TBL
Apr 10, 2022 at TBL TBL 5–0 2–02–01–0 5 — TBL
Jan 11, 2022 at BUF TBL 6–1 2–03–01–1 7 — TBL