← Stats / TBL @ BUF

TBL @ BUF

Sunday, March 8, 2026 · 5:00 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's most recent starter as the probable starter (confirmed starters are not published in advance). Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Tampa Bay Lightning
50-26-6 · Away
7 – 8
FINAL
Buffalo Sabres
50-23-9 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock closing line
Moneyline
TBL -115 · BUF -105
Puck Line
TBL -1.5 (+180) · BUF +1.5 (-250)
Total
O 6.5 (-115) · U (-105)

Graded: total 15 → OVER W · BUF +1.5 W

Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Game Total
Over 6.5
 TBLo6.5 44%
27-34
60%
3-2
60%
6-4
44%
14-18
80%
4-1
53%
32-29
BUFo6.5 46%
29-34
20%
1-4
40%
4-6
47%
14-16
80%
4-1
47%
29-33
Puck Line
cover %
 TBL-1.5 44%
27-34
20%
1-4
40%
4-6
50%
16-16
20%
1-4
+3.02u
31-30
BUF+1.5 73%
46-17
100%
5-0
80%
8-2
77%
23-7
80%
4-1
+7.85u
36-26
Moneyline
win %
 TBL fav -115 64%
39-22
20%
1-4
60%
6-4
63%
20-12
60%
3-2
+0.36u
31-18
BUF dog -105 60%
38-25
100%
5-0
70%
7-3
63%
19-11
40%
2-3
+8.81u
19-15
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown (closing)
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 0.5
 DK 1.5 o-154/u+120 FD 1.5 o-146/u+114 TBL 87%
53-8
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
91%
29-3
80%
4-1
56%
34-27
 2.07 1.13 / 0.93
BUF 92%
58-5
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
90%
27-3
80%
4-1
59%
37-26
 1.98 1.03 / 0.95
2nd Period
over 0.5
 DK 1.5 o-195/u+150 FD 1.5 o-196/u+150 TBL 85%
52-9
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
88%
28-4
80%
4-1
53%
32-29
 1.89 1.11 / 0.77
BUF 91%
57-6
100%
5-0
90%
9-1
93%
28-2
80%
4-1
56%
35-28
 2.08 1.24 / 0.84
3rd Period
over 0.5
 FD 2.5 o+120/u-154 TBL 92%
56-5
100%
5-0
100%
10-0
91%
29-3
100%
5-0
43%
26-35
 2.07 1.15 / 0.92
BUF 87%
55-8
80%
4-1
90%
9-1
83%
25-5
100%
5-0
41%
25-36
 2.14 1.08 / 1.06
Team Comparison '25-26
TBLBUF
Record (W-L-OTL)50-26-650-23-9
Points %64.6%66.5%
Goals for / game3.543.51
Goals against / game2.822.94
Shots for / game28.128.1
Shots against / game26.729.1
Power play %20.7%19.5%
Penalty kill %82.6%81.9%
Faceoff %47.3%45.9%
1st period GF / GA0.96 / 0.931.02 / 0.94
2nd period GF / GA1.22 / 0.841.16 / 0.88
3rd period GF / GA1.23 / 0.981.23 / 1.01
Avg game total6.356.45
Starting Goalies from the box score
34 saves on 42 shots · 8 GA · L
22 saves on 28 shots · 7 GA · W
P1P2P3OTSOGPP
TBL0430281/2
BUF1340424/7
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line
TBLPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Nikita Kucherov G 0.5
o+135
 47% 60% 40%2/5 2 O
Brayden Point G 0.5
o+180
 30% 50% 25%1/4 1 O
Oliver Bjorkstrand G 0.5
o+275
 16% 40% 50%3/6 0 U
Brandon Hagel G 0.5
o+180
 41% 40% 0%0/5 1 O
Jake Guentzel G 0.5
o+170
 36% 30% 60%3/5 0 U
Darren Raddysh G 0.5
o+375
 26% 30% 40%2/5 0 U
Anthony Cirelli G 0.5
o+300
 25% 30% 0%0/4 0 U
Corey Perry G 0.5
o+425
 22% 10% 0%0/3 1 O
Ryan McDonagh G 0.5
o+1300
 18% 10% 20%1/5 0 U
Victor Hedman G 0.5
o+850
 4% 10% 20%1/5 0 U
Yanni Gourde G 0.5
o+525
 10% 10% 0%0/5 0 U
Zemgus Girgensons G 0.5
o+600
 11% 10% 0%0/5 1 O
Erik Cernak G 0.5
o+1200
 2% 10% 0%0/5 0 U
Pontus Holmberg G 0.5
o+475
 17% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Scott Sabourin G 0.5
o+1100
 6% 0% 0%0/1 0 U
Charle-Edouard D'Astous G 0.5
o+1300
 6% 0% 0%0/1 0 U
J.J. Moser G 0.5
o+1000
 9% 0% 0%0/5 1 O
Conor Geekie G 0.5
o+650
 0% 0% 100%1/1 0 U
Brayden Point PTS 0.5
o-160 / u+120
 61% 80% 50%2/4 1 O
Jake Guentzel PTS 0.5
o-200 / u+150
 69% 70% 60%3/5 0 U
Darren Raddysh PTS 0.5
o-140 / u+105
 58% 70% 60%3/5 3 O
Nikita Kucherov PTS 1.5
o+105 / u-140
 58% 50% 60%3/5 3 O
Oliver Bjorkstrand PTS 0.5
o+120 / u-160
 38% 50% 100%6/6 0 U
Anthony Cirelli PTS 0.5
o+130 / u-175
 45% 50% 25%1/4 1 O
Brandon Hagel PTS 0.5
o-150 / u+110
 57% 50% 60%3/5 2 O
Victor Hedman PTS 0.5
o+175 / u-240
 44% 20% 40%2/5 0 U
Darren Raddysh A 0.5
o+100 / u-135
 47% 70% 60%3/5 3 O
Nikita Kucherov A 0.5
o-225 / u+165
 63% 60% 80%4/5 1 O
Jake Guentzel A 0.5
o+105 / u-135
 49% 60% 20%1/5 0 U
Brayden Point A 0.5
o+135 / u-180
 44% 60% 25%1/4 0 U
Anthony Cirelli A 0.5
o+250 / u-375
 32% 40% 25%1/4 1 O
Brandon Hagel A 0.5
o+155 / u-210
 39% 30% 60%3/5 1 O
Victor Hedman A 0.5
o+220 / u-300
 44% 20% 40%2/5 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand A 0.5
o+240 / u-350
 25% 20% 50%3/6 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand SOG 1.5
o-145 / u+110
 49% 80% 100%6/6 2 O
Darren Raddysh SOG 2.5
o-115 / u-115
 55% 80% 60%3/5 4 O
Jake Guentzel SOG 2.5
o-125 / u-110
 48% 60% 80%4/5 1 U
Victor Hedman SOG 1.5
o-120 / u-110
 48% 50% 60%3/5 3 O
Brandon Hagel SOG 2.5
o-135 / u+100
 61% 50% 40%2/5 2 U
Nikita Kucherov SOG 2.5
o-175 / u+130
 51% 40% 80%4/5 5 O
Anthony Cirelli SOG 1.5
o-110 / u-120
 47% 40% 50%2/4 1 U
Brayden Point SOG 2.5
o+115 / u-155
 37% 30% 0%0/4 1 U
Jonas Johansson SV 24.5
o-105 / u-125
 53% 40% 50%1/2 34 O
BUFPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Tage Thompson G 0.5
o+120
 48% 60% 60%3/5 0 U
Jason Zucker G 0.5
o+300
 34% 40% 25%1/4 2 O
Alex Tuch G 0.5
o+165
 37% 30% 60%3/5 2 O
Josh Norris G 0.5
o+260
 28% 30% 100%2/2 0 U
Peyton Krebs G 0.5
o+475
 14% 30% 20%1/5 0 U
Josh Doan G 0.5
o+300
 25% 30% 50%2/4 2 O
Owen Power G 0.5
o+700
 10% 30% 0%0/4 0 U
Mattias Samuelsson G 0.5
o+800
 16% 20% 20%1/5 0 U
Zach Benson G 0.5
o+525
 15% 20% 0%0/4 0 U
Beck Malenstyn G 0.5
o+850
 8% 10% 0%0/5 0 U
Ryan McLeod G 0.5
o+375
 18% 10% 0%0/5 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin G 0.5
o+425
 15% 10% 40%2/5 1 O
Noah Ostlund G 0.5
o+425
 16% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Zach Metsa G 0.5
o+2000
 6% 10% 50%1/2 0 U
Michael Kesselring G 0.5
o+1500
 0% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Bowen Byram G 0.5
o+700
 14% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Jack Quinn G 0.5
o+325
 16% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Tage Thompson PTS 0.5
o-220 / u+165
 71% 100% 100%5/5 4 O
Alex Tuch PTS 0.5
o-155 / u+115
 66% 70% 80%4/5 2 O
Josh Norris PTS 0.5
o+100 / u-135
 72% 70% 100%2/2 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin PTS 0.5
o-160 / u+120
 61% 70% 100%5/5 3 O
Ryan McLeod PTS 0.5
o+100 / u-135
 54% 60% 40%2/5 1 O
Bowen Byram PTS 0.5
o+150 / u-200
 43% 60% 20%1/5 3 O
Jack Quinn PTS 0.5
o+125 / u-170
 46% 50% 60%3/5 0 U
Josh Doan PTS 0.5
o+130 / u-170
 49% 50% 75%3/4 2 O
Owen Power PTS 0.5
o+185 / u-250
 32% 50% 25%1/4 0 U
Jason Zucker PTS 0.5
o+125 / u-165
 52% 40% 25%1/4 3 O
Peyton Krebs PTS 0.5
o+190 / u-260
 37% 40% 60%3/5 0 U
Mattias Samuelsson PTS 0.5
o+195 / u-275
 41% 20% 20%1/5 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin A 0.5
o-115 / u-115
 54% 70% 100%5/5 2 O
Bowen Byram A 0.5
o+195 / u-275
 33% 60% 20%1/5 3 O
Alex Tuch A 0.5
o+155 / u-210
 39% 50% 20%1/5 0 U
Tage Thompson A 0.5
o+125 / u-165
 43% 50% 40%2/5 4 O
Josh Norris A 0.5
o+195 / u-275
 52% 50% 0%0/2 0 U
Ryan McLeod A 0.5
o+155 / u-210
 43% 50% 40%2/5 1 O
Jack Quinn A 0.5
o+230 / u-325
 37% 50% 60%3/5 0 U
Peyton Krebs A 0.5
o+325 / u-475
 29% 30% 40%2/5 0 U
Josh Doan A 0.5
o+260 / u-375
 30% 30% 25%1/4 0 U
Owen Power A 0.5
o+250 / u-350
 24% 30% 25%1/4 0 U
Jason Zucker A 0.5
o+240 / u-350
 25% 0% 0%0/4 1 O
Mattias Samuelsson A 0.5
o+260 / u-375
 30% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Jack Quinn SOG 1.5
o-155 / u+115
 70% 100% 60%3/5 3 O
Tage Thompson SOG 3.5
o+115 / u-155
 49% 60% 80%4/5 3 U
Josh Doan SOG 1.5
o-165 / u+120
 56% 60% 50%2/4 4 O
Owen Power SOG 1.5
o+110 / u-145
 50% 60% 75%3/4 0 U
Jason Zucker SOG 1.5
o-145 / u+110
 55% 50% 50%2/4 6 O
Josh Norris SOG 1.5
o+105 / u-140
 52% 50% 100%2/2 1 U
Alex Tuch SOG 2.5
o+105 / u-140
 36% 40% 60%3/5 4 O
Rasmus Dahlin SOG 2.5
o+120 / u-155
 49% 30% 60%3/5 1 U
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen SV 26.5
o-125 / u-105
 52% 80% 50%1/2 22 U

Open in Prop Finder →

Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Feb 28, 2026 at TBL BUF 6–2 4–01–11–1 8 6.5 O BUF
Feb 3, 2026 at TBL BUF 3–4 OT 1–10–02–2 7 6.5 O TBL
Apr 13, 2025 at TBL BUF 4–7 2–10–42–2 11 6.5 O TBL
Apr 5, 2025 at BUF BUF 3–2 SO 0–01–21–0 5 6.5 U BUF
Mar 6, 2025 at TBL BUF 5–6 3–22–30–1 11 6.5 O TBL
Apr 15, 2024 at TBL BUF 4–2 1–02–11–1 6 — BUF
Feb 29, 2024 at TBL BUF 3–2 OT 1–10–11–0 5 — BUF
Jan 20, 2024 at BUF BUF 1–3 0–21–00–1 4 — TBL
Oct 17, 2023 at BUF BUF 3–2 OT 2–00–10–1 5 — BUF
Mar 4, 2023 at BUF BUF 5–3 1–13–01–2 8 — BUF