NHL Today
6:30 PM
EDM -140 15-3-3
PHI 5.5 6-10-6
7:00 PM
FLA 5.5 12-7-2
DAL -130 11-6-2
7:00 PM
CGY 6.5 9-10-1
ANA -150 10-9-1
8:00 PM
VAN 6.5 3-17-1
VGK -450 13-5-3
8:00 PM
NSH -170 11-4-5
SJS 6.5 9-11-2
← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-11-03
Moritz Seider
 DET @ TBL UNDER 0.5 Lean -135 57.2% 53.5% 0 W +0.74
2026-11-03
William Karlsson
 VGK @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 57.1% 55.4% 0 W +0.69
2026-11-03
Maxim Shabanov
 MIN @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 57.1% 55.4% 0 W +0.69
2026-11-03
Cole Perfetti
 WPG @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 57.0% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-11-03
Vasily Podkolzin
 EDM @ NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.8% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-11-03
Mark Jankowski
 CAR @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.7% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-11-03
Ivan Barbashev
 VGK @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.5% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-11-03
Noah Dobson
 MTL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 56.4% 55.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Alexis Lafrenière
 NYR vs STL OVER 0.5 Lean -140 56.3% 54.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Connor McDavid
 EDM @ NJD UNDER 1.5 Lean -130 56.2% 53.1% 1 W +0.77
2026-11-03
Alex Killorn
 ANA @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.2% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-11-03
Steven Stamkos
 NSH vs CAR OVER 0.5 Lean -155 56.0% 54.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Artyom Levshunov
 CHI vs COL UNDER 0.5 Top -350 73.9% 73.1% 0 W +0.29
2026-11-02
Gustav Forsling
 FLA vs DET UNDER 0.5 Top -300 71.2% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-11-02
Brent Burns
 COL @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Top -300 69.4% 69.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Jack Eichel
 VGK @ BOS OVER 0.5 Top -250 68.9% 67.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-02
David Pastrnak
 BOS vs VGK OVER 0.5 Top -230 68.1% 65.3% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-02
Mitch Marner
 VGK @ BOS OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.7% 65.6% 2 W +0.42
2026-11-02
Justin Faulk
 DET @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.6% 66.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA vs DET OVER 0.5 Top -250 67.5% 67.1% 1 W +0.40
2026-11-02
Sam Malinski
 COL @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Top -260 66.9% 68.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Jacob Trouba
 SJS vs CGY UNDER 0.5 Top -260 66.1% 67.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Cale Makar
 COL @ CHI OVER 0.5 Strong -210 65.9% 63.3% 1 W +0.48
2026-11-02
Will Smith
 SJS vs CGY OVER 0.5 Strong -220 65.3% 64.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Martin Necas
 COL @ CHI UNDER 1.5 Strong -220 64.9% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-02
Aaron Ekblad
 FLA vs DET UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.9% 64.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Andrew Copp
 DET @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.5% 63.8% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Lars Eller
 FLA vs DET UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.2% 62.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
 DET @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 63.7% 60.5% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Eetu Luostarinen
 FLA vs DET UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.5% 62.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-02
James Hagens
 BOS vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.1% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Casey Mittelstadt
 BOS vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.0% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-02
Ryan Strome
 CGY @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 62.3% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-02
Collin Graf
 SJS vs CGY UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 62.3% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-02
Simon Nemec
 CGY @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.3% 62.0% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-02
Aydar Suniev
 CGY @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 62.1% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-02
Connor Bedard
 CHI vs COL OVER 0.5 Strong -180 61.9% 60.2% 1 W +0.56
2026-11-02
Brett Howden
 VGK @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.5% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-02
Fraser Minten
 BOS vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.4% 62.0% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-02
Shea Theodore
 VGK @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 61.3% 62.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-02
Sam Reinhart
 FLA vs DET OVER 0.5 Lean -175 60.8% 59.4% 1 W +0.57
2026-11-02
Brady Tkachuk
 FLA vs DET OVER 0.5 Lean -185 60.1% 60.4% 1 W +0.54
2026-11-02
Frank Nazar
 CHI vs COL UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.8% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-02
Mark Stone
 VGK @ BOS OVER 0.5 Lean -165 59.3% 58.4% 1 W +0.61
2026-11-02
Michael Misa
 SJS vs CGY UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.1% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Jaden Schwartz
 COL @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 59.0% 60.9% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Alex DeBrincat
 DET @ FLA OVER 0.5 Lean -170 58.9% 59.2% 1 W +0.59
2026-11-02
Trevor Connelly
 VGK @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 58.3% 57.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Matt Coronato
 CGY @ SJS OVER 0.5 Lean -165 57.8% 58.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Kiefer Sherwood
 SJS vs CGY UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 57.6% 57.2% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-02
Nazem Kadri
 COL @ CHI OVER 0.5 Lean -145 57.6% 55.4% 2 W +0.69
2026-11-02
Dmitry Orlov
 SJS vs CGY UNDER 0.5 Lean -140 57.3% 54.5% 0 W +0.71
2026-11-02
Tyler Bertuzzi
 CHI vs COL UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 57.1% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-02
William Karlsson
 VGK @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 57.0% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-11-02
T.J. Hughes
 COL @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 56.9% 58.0% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-02
Zayne Parekh
 CGY @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -135 56.2% 53.5% 0 W +0.74
2026-11-01
Tim Stützle
 OTT @ ANA UNDER 1.5 Top -250 70.5% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-01
Ryan Shea
 EDM @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Top -275 70.1% 68.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Matt Boldy
 MIN @ WSH UNDER 1.5 Top -275 70.1% 68.4% 1 W +0.36
2026-11-01
Clayton Keller
 UTA @ PHI UNDER 1.5 Top -230 68.2% 65.3% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Sebastian Aho
 CAR vs WPG OVER 0.5 Top -250 68.1% 66.7% 2 W +0.40
2026-11-01
Dawson Mercer
 WPG @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Top -210 66.9% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-01
Quinn Hughes
 MIN @ WSH OVER 0.5 Top -220 66.0% 64.1% 1 W +0.46
2026-11-01
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR vs EDM OVER 0.5 Strong -210 65.9% 63.3% 1 W +0.48
2026-11-01
Jaccob Slavin
 CAR vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -250 65.5% 64.6% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-01
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ WSH UNDER 1.5 Strong -210 65.4% 63.3% 1 W +0.48
2026-11-01
Ridly Greig
 OTT @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.3% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-01
Bobby Brink
 MIN @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.3% 64.9% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Lawson Crouse
 UTA @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.2% 64.6% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-01
Sean Walker
 CAR vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.1% 64.1% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Anders Lee
 UTA @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.0% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-01
Adam Fox
 NYR vs EDM OVER 0.5 Strong -195 64.9% 61.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Vladislav Gavrikov
 NYR vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.4% 64.6% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-01
K'Andre Miller
 CAR vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.3% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-01
Tristan Luneau
 ANA vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.2% 64.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 64.1% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-01
Barrett Hayton
 UTA @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.1% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-01
Jordan Martinook
 CAR vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.9% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-01
Stephen Halliday
 OTT @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 63.7% 61.6% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-01
William Carrier
 CAR vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 63.7% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-01
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ NYR UNDER 1.5 Strong -180 63.3% 60.2% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-01
J.T. Miller
 NYR vs EDM OVER 0.5 Strong -185 63.3% 60.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Denver Barkey
 PHI vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 63.2% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-01
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -200 63.2% 62.5% 1 W +0.50
2026-11-01
Christian Dvorak
 PHI vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.1% 63.3% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Nikolaj Ehlers
 CAR vs WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -200 63.0% 62.5% 2 W +0.50
2026-11-01
Evan Bouchard
 EDM @ NYR OVER 0.5 Strong -195 62.4% 61.8% 3 W +0.51
2026-11-01
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ PHI OVER 0.5 Strong -210 62.3% 62.9% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Leo Carlsson
 ANA vs OTT OVER 0.5 Strong -170 62.1% 58.6% 3 W +0.59
2026-11-01
Oliver Bjorkstrand
 NYR vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 61.8% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-01
Jackson Blake
 CAR vs WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -180 61.5% 60.2% 1 W +0.56
2026-11-01
Kasperi Kapanen
 EDM @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -170 61.3% 59.2% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-01
Alexis Lafrenière
 NYR vs EDM OVER 0.5 Strong -165 61.1% 58.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Tyson Foerster
 PHI vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 61.1% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-01
Neal Pionk
 WPG @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -155 61.0% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-01
Blake Coleman
 MIN @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 60.9% 61.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Thomas Chabot
 OTT @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 60.7% 60.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs OTT OVER 0.5 Lean -160 60.7% 57.5% 3 W +0.63
2026-11-01
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Lean -200 60.6% 62.0% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-01
Beckett Sennecke
 ANA vs OTT OVER 0.5 Lean -170 60.5% 58.6% 0 L -1.00
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