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PHI 5.5 6-10-6
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DAL -130 11-6-2
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CGY 6.5 9-10-1
ANA -150 10-9-1
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← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-10-22
Auston Matthews
 TOR vs NYR OVER 0.5 Top -250 68.1% 67.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Zeev Buium
 VAN vs DET UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.9% 66.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Cam Fowler
 STL vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Top -260 67.8% 67.3% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-22
Matt Boldy
 MIN @ CGY UNDER 1.5 Top -230 67.7% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-22
Tim Stützle
 OTT vs SJS UNDER 1.5 Top -210 67.7% 62.9% 1 W +0.48
2026-10-22
Quinn Hughes
 MIN @ CGY OVER 0.5 Top -250 67.7% 66.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Nate Schmidt
 UTA @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.6% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-10-22
Aaron Ekblad
 FLA @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.5% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-22
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
 NYI vs LAK UNDER 0.5 Top -260 67.4% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-22
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs WPG UNDER 1.5 Top -225 67.3% 64.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Tony DeAngelo
 NYI vs LAK UNDER 0.5 Top -225 67.3% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Jonatan Berggren
 STL vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Top -225 67.2% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Jonas Brodin
 MIN @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.2% 66.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Frederic Brunet
 BOS vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.1% 67.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
William Carrier
 CAR @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.0% 66.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Clayton Keller
 UTA @ SEA UNDER 1.5 Top -225 66.8% 64.7% 1 W +0.44
2026-10-22
Matthew Wood
 NSH @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Top -230 66.8% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-22
Hampus Lindholm
 BOS vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Top -240 66.5% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-22
Sean Durzi
 NYR @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Top -250 66.5% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-10-22
Eetu Luostarinen
 FLA @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Top -240 66.4% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-22
Drew O'Connor
 VAN vs DET UNDER 0.5 Top -240 66.3% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-22
Evan Bouchard
 EDM vs CAR OVER 0.5 Top -230 66.3% 65.3% 1 W +0.44
2026-10-22
Victor Eklund
 NYI vs LAK UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.0% 64.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
William Nylander
 TOR vs NYR OVER 0.5 Strong -210 65.9% 63.3% 1 W +0.48
2026-10-22
Sidney Crosby
 PIT vs FLA UNDER 1.5 Strong -230 65.7% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-22
Zayne Parekh
 CGY vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.7% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-22
Ryan Strome
 CGY vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.7% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-22
Carter Yakemchuk
 OTT vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.7% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-22
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
 CAR @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.7% 64.6% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-22
Emil Heineman
 NYI vs LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.6% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Marat Khusnutdinov
 BOS vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.4% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-22
Ridly Greig
 OTT vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.3% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-22
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ PIT OVER 0.5 Strong -240 65.2% 65.6% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Kasperi Kapanen
 EDM vs CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.1% 64.9% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-22
Tye Kartye
 NYR @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.0% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Danila Yurov
 MIN @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.7% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-22
Mavrik Bourque
 NSH @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.6% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-22
David Pastrnak
 BOS vs NSH UNDER 1.5 Strong -200 64.6% 62.5% 4 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Hendrix Lapierre
 PIT vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.5% 64.1% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Morgan Rielly
 TOR vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.3% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Linus Karlsson
 VAN vs DET UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.2% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-22
Nick Schmaltz
 UTA @ SEA OVER 0.5 Strong -200 64.1% 62.0% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Sam Steel
 DAL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 64.1% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-22
Vladislav Gavrikov
 NYR @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.0% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Kailer Yamamoto
 UTA @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 63.9% 65.6% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Brett Howden
 VGK @ STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.8% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
K'Andre Miller
 CAR @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 63.8% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-22
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 63.7% 60.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Trevor Moore
 LAK @ NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.7% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-22
Erik Haula
 LAK @ NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.7% 62.0% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-22
Dylan Larkin
 DET @ VAN OVER 0.5 Strong -195 63.7% 61.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Yegor Sharangovich
 CGY vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 63.6% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-22
Kris Letang
 PIT vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 63.4% 64.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Michael Misa
 SJS @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.4% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ CGY UNDER 1.5 Strong -185 63.2% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-22
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR @ TOR OVER 0.5 Strong -190 63.2% 61.1% 2 W +0.53
2026-10-22
Jesper Bratt
 NJD vs ANA OVER 0.5 Strong -195 63.2% 61.8% 2 W +0.51
2026-10-22
Jacob Trouba
 SJS @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.2% 62.5% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Mackie Samoskevich
 SEA vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 63.2% 64.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Casey Mittelstadt
 BOS vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.0% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Erik Karlsson
 PIT vs FLA OVER 0.5 Strong -210 62.9% 60.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Justin Faulk
 DET @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 62.9% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-22
Bobby Brink
 MIN @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.8% 62.0% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-22
Nick Paul
 TOR vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 62.5% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-10-22
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ SEA OVER 0.5 Strong -185 62.4% 60.9% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Lucas Raymond
 DET @ VAN OVER 0.5 Strong -185 62.4% 60.9% 3 W +0.54
2026-10-22
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ EDM OVER 0.5 Strong -190 62.3% 61.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Kyle Connor
 WPG @ DAL OVER 0.5 Strong -195 62.3% 61.8% 1 W +0.51
2026-10-22
Andrei Kuzmenko
 PIT vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.0% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-22
Macklin Celebrini
 SJS @ OTT UNDER 1.5 Strong -185 62.0% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-22
Shea Theodore
 VGK @ STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.9% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-22
Nico Hischier
 NJD vs ANA OVER 0.5 Strong -175 61.6% 59.4% 1 W +0.57
2026-10-22
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL vs WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -175 61.6% 59.4% 2 W +0.57
2026-10-22
Jack Hughes
 NJD vs ANA UNDER 1.5 Strong -200 61.6% 62.0% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Alex Killorn
 ANA @ NJD UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 61.6% 63.2% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-22
Mark Stone
 VGK @ STL OVER 0.5 Strong -185 61.4% 60.9% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Nikolaj Ehlers
 CAR @ EDM OVER 0.5 Lean -170 61.0% 58.6% 1 W +0.59
2026-10-22
Anders Lee
 UTA @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Lean -200 60.9% 62.0% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-22
Filip Chytil
 VAN vs DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 60.9% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-22
Barrett Hayton
 UTA @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Lean -200 60.8% 62.0% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-22
Adam Fox
 NYR @ TOR OVER 0.5 Lean -165 60.7% 58.4% 4 W +0.61
2026-10-22
Jake Neighbours
 STL vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.6% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Bo Horvat
 NYI vs LAK OVER 0.5 Lean -180 60.6% 60.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Neal Pionk
 WPG @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 60.4% 57.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Kiefer Sherwood
 SJS @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 60.3% 60.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Filip Forsberg
 NSH @ BOS OVER 0.5 Lean -170 60.3% 58.6% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Brady Tkachuk
 FLA @ PIT OVER 0.5 Lean -195 60.2% 61.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Will Cuylle
 NYR @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 60.2% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-22
Tyler Toffoli
 SJS @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 60.1% 60.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Dmitry Orlov
 SJS @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 60.0% 58.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Connor Brown
 NJD vs ANA UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 59.9% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-22
Mikhail Sergachev
 UTA @ SEA OVER 0.5 Lean -165 59.9% 58.4% 2 W +0.61
2026-10-22
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM vs CAR UNDER 1.5 Lean -170 59.8% 59.2% 5 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Sam Reinhart
 FLA @ PIT OVER 0.5 Lean -180 59.8% 60.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Stephen Halliday
 OTT vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 59.8% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-10-22
Mark Scheifele
 WPG @ DAL OVER 0.5 Lean -175 59.5% 59.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Philip Broberg
 STL vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.5% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-10-22
Brandt Clarke
 LAK @ NYI UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 59.4% 57.5% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-22
Ryan Hartman
 MIN @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.4% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-10-22
Artemi Panarin
 LAK @ NYI OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.3% 58.6% 2 W +0.59
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