NHL Today
6:30 PM
EDM -140 15-3-3
PHI 5.5 6-10-6
7:00 PM
FLA 5.5 12-7-2
DAL -130 11-6-2
7:00 PM
CGY 6.5 9-10-1
ANA -150 10-9-1
8:00 PM
VAN 6.5 3-17-1
VGK -450 13-5-3
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NSH -170 11-4-5
SJS 6.5 9-11-2
← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-11-05
Pontus Holmberg
 TBL vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 56.3% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-05
Simon Holmstrom
 NYI vs CAR UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 56.3% 55.4% 0 W +0.69
2026-11-05
Beckett Sennecke
 ANA @ EDM OVER 0.5 Lean -145 56.2% 55.4% 3 W +0.69
2026-11-04
Brady Tkachuk
 FLA vs CHI UNDER 1.5 Top -250 68.7% 66.7% 1 W +0.40
2026-11-04
Gustav Forsling
 FLA vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Top -260 67.7% 67.3% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-04
Tage Thompson
 BUF vs OTT OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.5% 66.0% 1 W +0.42
2026-11-04
Olen Zellweger
 BUF vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.0% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-04
Tim Stützle
 OTT @ BUF UNDER 1.5 Top -210 66.7% 63.3% 1 W +0.48
2026-11-04
Artyom Levshunov
 CHI @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Top -190 66.6% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-04
Philip Tomasino
 OTT @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Top -225 66.6% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Sam Reinhart
 FLA vs CHI OVER 0.5 Top -200 66.4% 62.5% 3 W +0.50
2026-11-04
Macklin Celebrini
 SJS @ LAK UNDER 1.5 Top -230 66.3% 65.3% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-04
Sandis Vilmanis
 FLA vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.8% 64.1% 4 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Adrian Kempe
 LAK vs SJS OVER 0.5 Strong -200 65.6% 62.5% 4 W +0.50
2026-11-04
Teuvo Teravainen
 CHI @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 65.3% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-04
Frederick Gaudreau
 SEA vs CGY UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.1% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-04
Scott Laughton
 LAK vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.0% 63.8% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-04
Josh Norris
 BUF vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.9% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-04
Simon Nemec
 CGY @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 64.7% 65.6% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-04
Yegor Sharangovich
 CGY @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.0% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF vs OTT OVER 0.5 Strong -195 63.9% 61.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Jason Zucker
 BUF vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.6% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-04
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA vs CHI UNDER 1.5 Strong -200 63.4% 62.5% 1 W +0.50
2026-11-04
Peyton Krebs
 BUF vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.1% 62.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Mattias Samuelsson
 BUF vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 63.1% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-04
Aydar Suniev
 CGY @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.7% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-04
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 62.5% 61.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Zayne Parekh
 CGY @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 62.2% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-04
Michael Misa
 SJS @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.0% 62.0% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Lars Eller
 FLA vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 61.8% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-04
Ryan Strome
 CGY @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 61.5% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-04
Drew Doughty
 LAK vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 61.5% 62.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Thomas Chabot
 OTT @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.4% 62.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Ryan McLeod
 BUF vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 61.3% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-04
Alex Laferriere
 LAK vs SJS OVER 0.5 Strong -180 61.2% 60.2% 1 W +0.56
2026-11-04
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA vs CHI OVER 0.5 Strong -175 61.1% 59.4% 2 W +0.57
2026-11-04
Connor Bedard
 CHI @ FLA OVER 0.5 Strong -190 61.1% 61.1% 2 W +0.53
2026-11-04
Martin Chromiak
 LAK vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 60.6% 59.2% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-04
Josh Doan
 BUF vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 60.5% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-04
Eetu Luostarinen
 FLA vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 60.4% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-04
Aaron Ekblad
 FLA vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.1% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-04
Quinton Byfield
 LAK vs SJS OVER 0.5 Lean -170 60.0% 59.2% 2 W +0.59
2026-11-04
Kiefer Sherwood
 SJS @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.9% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-04
Corey Perry
 LAK vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 59.8% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-04
Anton Frondell
 CHI @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.6% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-04
Drake Batherson
 OTT @ BUF OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.4% 59.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Seth Jones
 FLA vs CHI OVER 0.5 Lean -155 59.4% 56.7% 1 W +0.65
2026-11-04
Matthew Wood
 SEA vs CGY UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 59.2% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-04
Sam Bennett
 FLA vs CHI OVER 0.5 Lean -160 59.2% 57.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Artemi Panarin
 LAK vs SJS UNDER 1.5 Lean -160 59.2% 57.5% 4 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Tyler Bertuzzi
 CHI @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 58.7% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-04
Frank Nazar
 CHI @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 58.3% 56.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Mikael Backlund
 CGY @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 57.9% 57.8% 0 W +0.61
2026-11-04
Ivar Stenberg
 SJS @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 57.8% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Jack Quinn
 BUF vs OTT OVER 0.5 Lean -150 57.8% 56.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Dylan Cozens
 OTT @ BUF OVER 0.5 Lean -170 57.4% 58.6% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Zach Benson
 BUF vs OTT OVER 0.5 Lean -150 57.4% 55.8% 1 W +0.67
2026-11-04
Claude Giroux
 OTT @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 56.9% 57.2% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-04
Roman Kantserov
 CHI @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Lean -135 56.7% 53.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Matt Coronato
 CGY @ SEA OVER 0.5 Lean -150 56.6% 55.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-04
Owen Power
 BUF vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 56.6% 56.7% 0 W +0.61
2026-11-04
Trevor Moore
 LAK vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 56.6% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-03
Nils Hoglander
 NSH vs CAR UNDER 0.5 Top -325 74.3% 71.6% 0 W +0.31
2026-11-03
Jake McCabe
 TOR vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Top -350 73.1% 72.6% 0 W +0.29
2026-11-03
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
 TOR vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Top -325 71.6% 71.6% 0 W +0.31
2026-11-03
Justin Faulk
 DET @ TBL UNDER 0.5 Top -260 71.5% 67.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Sam Malinski
 COL @ CBJ UNDER 0.5 Top -275 71.1% 68.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Travis Sanheim
 PHI vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Top -325 71.0% 71.0% 0 W +0.31
2026-11-03
Arttu Hyry
 DAL @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Top -275 70.8% 68.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Rasmus Andersson
 VGK @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Top -325 70.7% 71.0% 0 W +0.31
2026-11-03
Drew Helleson
 ANA @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Top -275 70.3% 68.8% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-03
Braeden Bowman
 VGK @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Top -260 69.5% 67.3% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-03
Clayton Keller
 UTA @ TOR OVER 0.5 Top -240 69.4% 66.0% 3 W +0.42
2026-11-03
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
 DET @ TBL UNDER 0.5 Top -210 69.1% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-03
Andrew Copp
 DET @ TBL UNDER 0.5 Top -225 69.0% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Leo Carlsson
 ANA @ VAN OVER 0.5 Top -250 68.8% 66.7% 1 W +0.40
2026-11-03
Cole Caufield
 MTL vs WPG UNDER 1.5 Top -225 68.6% 64.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Colton Dach
 EDM @ NJD UNDER 0.5 Top -250 68.3% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-03
Brayden Point
 TBL vs DET UNDER 1.5 Top -225 68.2% 64.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Jack Eichel
 VGK @ PIT UNDER 1.5 Top -230 68.2% 65.3% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Shane Wright
 NSH vs CAR UNDER 0.5 Top -260 67.9% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-03
Mattias Ekholm
 EDM @ NJD UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.7% 66.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Quinn Hughes
 MIN @ PHI OVER 0.5 Top -250 67.6% 66.7% 1 W +0.40
2026-11-03
Matt Boldy
 MIN @ PHI UNDER 1.5 Top -220 67.1% 64.1% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Cam Fowler
 STL @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Top -260 66.9% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-03
Auston Matthews
 TOR vs UTA UNDER 1.5 Top -240 66.6% 66.0% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Sidney Crosby
 PIT vs VGK OVER 0.5 Top -220 66.5% 64.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Nathan MacKinnon
 COL @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 Top -210 66.2% 63.8% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Oliver Bonk
 PHI vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.0% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-03
Sebastian Aho
 CAR @ NSH OVER 0.5 Top -220 66.0% 64.6% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-03
William Carrier
 CAR @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Top -230 66.0% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-03
Morgan Rielly
 TOR vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Top -250 66.0% 66.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Liam Ohgren
 VAN vs ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.9% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Conor Garland
 CBJ vs COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 65.9% 66.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Damon Severson
 CBJ vs COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -260 65.8% 67.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Evan Bouchard
 EDM @ NJD OVER 0.5 Strong -210 65.6% 63.3% 2 W +0.48
2026-11-03
Zeev Buium
 VAN vs ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.5% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-03
William Nylander
 TOR vs UTA OVER 0.5 Strong -195 65.3% 61.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Hendrix Lapierre
 PIT vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.0% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-03
Mikko Rantanen
 DAL @ WSH OVER 0.5 Strong -210 65.0% 63.3% 1 W +0.48
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