← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2026-01-13 EDM @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.8% +4.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-12 EDM @ CHI UNDER 3.5 best +125 46.7% 41.7% +5.0% 2 W +1.25 —
2026-01-12 COL vs TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.6% 43.4% +2.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-01-12 NJD @ MIN OVER 2.5 lean +130 45.5% 40.6% +4.7% 4 W +1.30 —
2026-01-11 SJS vs VGK UNDER 3.5 lean -115 55.1% 50.0% +3.0% 1 W +0.87 —
2026-01-11 WSH @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.3% 40.9% +4.3% 2 W +1.30 —
2026-01-11 NJD @ WPG OVER 2.5 lean +140 42.7% 38.9% +2.6% 3 W +1.40 —
2026-01-11 WPG vs NJD OVER 1.5 lean -115 55.8% 50.0% +4.4% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-01-10 VAN @ TOR UNDER 2.5 best +105 53.0% 45.5% +8.6% 2 W +1.05 —
2026-01-10 VAN @ TOR UNDER 2.5 best +125 49.9% 41.4% +12.2% 2 W +1.25 —
2026-01-10 EDM vs LAK OVER 2.5 lean +115 48.1% 43.7% +3.4% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-01-10 COL vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.6% 44.6% +4.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-09 WSH @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +140 43.3% 38.9% +3.8% 1 W +1.40 —
2026-01-08 VAN @ DET UNDER 2.5 best +120 51.9% 42.5% +14.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-08 VGK vs CBJ OVER 2.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.6% +2.4% 3 W +1.35 —
2026-01-08 COL vs OTT UNDER 1.5 lean -105 53.2% 48.0% +3.8% 1 W +0.95 —
2026-01-08 COL vs OTT UNDER 3.5 lean +145 41.7% 38.2% +2.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-01-08 WPG vs EDM OVER 1.5 lean -120 56.3% 51.0% +3.2% 3 W +0.83 —
2026-01-08 NJD @ PIT OVER 3.5 lean +125 45.5% 41.7% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-08 TOR @ PHI UNDER 3.5 lean +105 50.5% 45.5% +3.4% 3 W +1.05 —
2026-01-07 LAK vs SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.9% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-07 UTA vs OTT OVER 2.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.9% +2.3% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-01-06 VAN @ BUF UNDER 2.5 best +125 50.3% 41.7% +13.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-06 FLA @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.7% 43.4% +2.6% 1 W +1.15 —
2026-01-06 ANA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.8% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-06 PHI vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.6% 38.9% +2.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-06 TBL vs COL OVER 2.5 lean +145 42.5% 38.2% +4.2% 3 W +1.45 —
2026-01-05 CGY vs SEA OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.5% 46.9% +3.0% 4 W +1.00 —
2026-01-03 VAN vs BOS UNDER 2.5 best +135 50.6% 39.8% +18.9% 1 W +1.35 —
2026-01-03 WSH vs CHI UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.3% 45.9% +5.2% 0 W +1.05 —
2026-01-03 NJD vs UTA OVER 3.5 best +130 46.4% 40.9% +6.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-01-03 CGY vs NSH OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.0% 46.9% +2.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-01-03 CHI @ WSH OVER 1.5 lean +140 43.6% 38.9% +4.5% 4 W +1.40 —
2026-01-03 WPG @ OTT OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.6% 48.0% +2.7% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-01-03 MTL @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.9% 40.9% +3.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-02 VGK @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.1% 53.1% +2.9% 1 W +0.77 —
2026-01-01 CHI vs DAL OVER 1.5 lean +120 47.1% 42.5% +3.7% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-01-01 PIT vs DET OVER 2.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.7% +2.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-01-01 WSH @ OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.0% 40.6% +3.5% 2 W +1.30 —
2025-12-31 COL vs STL UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.9% 41.7% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-12-31 NJD @ CBJ OVER 2.5 lean +130 44.9% 40.9% +3.2% 3 W +1.30 —
2025-12-31 VGK vs NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.3% 51.0% +3.1% 2 W +0.83 —
2025-12-30 CHI vs NYI OVER 1.5 lean +110 49.5% 44.6% +3.9% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-30 CAR @ PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.6% 44.6% +4.1% 0 W +1.10 —
2025-12-30 NJD @ TOR OVER 3.5 lean +110 48.9% 44.3% +2.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-12-30 NJD @ TOR OVER 2.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.5% +2.5% 4 W +1.20 —
2025-12-29 VAN @ SEA UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.5% 42.8% +6.7% 2 W +1.20 —
2025-12-29 WSH @ FLA UNDER 2.5 best +130 45.9% 40.9% +5.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-12-29 OTT vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.5% 39.8% +6.9% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-12-29 NSH @ UTA OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.4% 46.9% +2.8% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-29 BUF @ STL OVER 2.5 lean +120 46.4% 42.8% +2.1% 5 W +1.20 —
2025-12-29 EDM @ WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.8% +3.2% 1 W +1.20 —
2025-12-28 CBJ vs NYI OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.9% +2.1% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-12-27 NJD vs WSH OVER 3.5 best +125 48.1% 41.7% +8.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-12-27 WSH @ NJD UNDER 2.5 best +150 44.4% 37.5% +11.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-12-27 COL @ VGK UNDER 3.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.7% +2.5% 9 L -1.00 —
2025-12-27 VAN vs SJS OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.4% 46.9% +2.9% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-27 EDM @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.3% 39.8% +4.1% 2 W +1.35 —
2025-12-27 CGY vs EDM OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.0% 46.9% +2.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-27 CHI @ DAL OVER 1.5 lean +110 48.9% 44.6% +2.8% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-27 STL vs NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.2% 52.0% +3.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-12-27 NJD vs WSH OVER 2.5 lean +130 45.1% 40.6% +3.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-12-27 NJD vs WSH OVER 1.5 lean -195 67.9% 61.8% +2.7% 6 W +0.51 —
2025-12-27 TOR vs OTT OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.6% 48.0% +2.6% 6 W +0.95 —
2025-12-27 BUF vs BOS OVER 2.5 lean +130 45.6% 40.6% +4.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-12-27 BUF vs BOS OVER 3.5 lean +130 45.6% 40.6% +5.0% 4 W +1.30 —
2025-12-23 FLA @ CAR UNDER 2.5 best +135 46.0% 39.8% +8.2% 2 W +1.35 —
2025-12-23 NJD @ NYI OVER 3.5 best +120 49.9% 42.5% +9.8% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-23 NJD @ NYI OVER 1.5 best -185 68.6% 60.9% +5.6% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-23 WSH vs NYR UNDER 2.5 best +150 42.0% 37.5% +5.1% 1 W +1.50 —
2025-12-23 CHI vs PHI OVER 1.5 lean +110 49.3% 44.6% +3.6% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-12-23 DAL @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +155 40.1% 36.7% +2.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-12-23 BUF @ OTT OVER 2.5 lean +115 47.9% 43.4% +3.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-23 BUF @ OTT OVER 1.5 lean -110 54.7% 49.0% +4.4% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-12-23 BUF @ OTT OVER 2.5 lean +120 46.8% 42.5% +2.9% 3 W +1.20 —
2025-12-23 TOR vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.9% 39.8% +3.3% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-12-22 CBJ @ LAK OVER 1.5 best +115 48.9% 43.7% +5.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-21 WSH @ DET UNDER 2.5 best +150 43.8% 37.5% +9.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-12-21 EDM vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.7% 42.8% +4.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-12-21 NJD vs BUF OVER 2.5 lean +150 41.1% 37.5% +2.9% 3 W +1.50 —
2025-12-21 COL @ MIN OVER 2.5 lean +150 41.3% 37.5% +3.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-12-20 OTT vs CHI OVER 2.5 lean -175 66.1% 59.4% +3.9% 10 W +0.57 —
2025-12-20 CHI @ OTT OVER 1.5 lean +120 46.8% 42.2% +2.9% 4 W +1.20 —
2025-12-19 NJD @ UTA OVER 2.5 lean +145 41.8% 38.4% +2.5% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-12-18 CGY vs SEA OVER 1.5 best +100 52.6% 46.5% +5.2% 4 W +1.00 —
2025-12-18 CBJ vs MIN OVER 1.5 best +100 54.1% 46.9% +8.2% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-12-18 CBJ vs MIN UNDER 1.5 lean -105 53.1% 48.0% +3.8% 0 W +0.95 —
2025-12-18 WSH vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +140 43.2% 38.9% +3.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-12-17 WPG @ STL UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.6% 41.7% +4.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-12-17 UTA @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.6% 43.4% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-12-16 MTL vs PHI UNDER 1.5 best +110 50.8% 44.6% +6.7% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-12-16 CHI @ TOR OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.3% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-15 WPG vs OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.4% +2.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-12-14 MTL vs EDM UNDER 1.5 best +125 47.8% 41.7% +7.6% 0 W +1.25 —
2025-12-14 SEA vs BUF UNDER 2.5 lean -175 66.0% 59.4% +3.7% 1 W +0.57 —
2025-12-14 NJD vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -175 65.0% 59.4% +2.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-12-13 NSH @ COL OVER 1.5 lean +110 48.7% 44.6% +2.2% 4 W +1.10 —
2025-12-13 NSH @ COL OVER 1.5 lean +115 47.7% 43.7% +2.5% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-13 DET @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.8% +2.2% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-12-13 WPG vs WSH OVER 1.5 lean -125 57.0% 52.0% +2.7% 2 W +0.80 —
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