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SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-11-14
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 1.5 lean -125 56.9% 52.0% +2.4% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-11-13
Kirill Marchenko
 CBJ vs EDM UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.5% 42.8% +6.7% 2 W +1.20 —
2025-11-13
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ DET UNDER 3.5 best -120 58.3% 51.0% +6.9% 3 W +0.83 —
2025-11-13
Mathew Barzal
 NYI @ VGK OVER 2.5 lean +150 41.3% 37.5% +3.2% 5 W +1.50 —
2025-11-13
Jake Sanderson
 OTT vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.5% 51.0% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-11-13
Viktor Arvidsson
 BOS @ OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.3% 51.0% +3.1% 1 W +0.83 —
2025-11-13
Brendan Gallagher
 MTL vs DAL OVER 1.5 lean +115 47.9% 43.7% +3.0% 3 W +1.15 —
2025-11-12
Tage Thompson
 BUF @ UTA UNDER 3.5 lean -125 57.3% 52.0% +3.2% 0 W +0.80 —
2025-11-12
Jack Roslovic
 EDM @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +170 38.0% 34.4% +2.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-11-11
Kirill Marchenko
 CBJ @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.6% 42.8% +4.8% 2 W +1.20 —
2025-11-11
Gabriel Landeskog
 COL vs ANA OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.0% 46.9% +2.1% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-11-11
Viktor Arvidsson
 BOS vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.8% 45.5% +4.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-11-10
Bo Horvat
 NYI @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.8% 40.9% +2.9% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-11-09
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs WPG UNDER 3.5 best -125 60.0% 52.0% +8.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-11-09
Jake DeBrusk
 VAN vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.3% 53.1% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-11-09
Evander Kane
 VAN vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.2% 43.4% +3.5% 0 W +1.15 —
2025-11-09
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.7% 44.6% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-11-09
Trevor Moore
 LAK @ PIT OVER 1.5 lean -125 56.7% 52.0% +2.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-11-09
Connor Bedard
 CHI @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.8% +4.3% 2 W +1.35 —
2025-11-08
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ VGK UNDER 3.5 best -140 61.5% 54.5% +5.5% 2 W +0.71 —
2025-11-08
Kirill Marchenko
 CBJ @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-11-08
Isak Rosen
 BUF @ CAR UNDER 1.5 lean -130 59.2% 52.5% +4.8% 0 W +0.77 —
2025-11-08
Emil Heineman
 NYI @ NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.9% 45.5% +4.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-11-08
Mathew Barzal
 NYI @ NYR OVER 2.5 lean +135 43.8% 39.8% +2.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-11-08
Viktor Arvidsson
 BOS @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.8% 50.0% +2.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-11-08
Arseny Gritsyuk
 NJD vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.1% 38.2% +3.2% 1 W +1.45 —
2025-11-06
Isak Rosen
 BUF vs STL UNDER 1.5 best +110 54.8% 44.3% +15.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-11-06
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ DAL UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.5% 54.5% +3.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-11-06
Arseny Gritsyuk
 NJD vs MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.9% 39.6% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-11-06
Tage Thompson
 BUF vs STL UNDER 3.5 lean -105 52.8% 47.5% +3.1% 2 W +0.95 —
2025-11-05
John Klingberg
 SJS @ SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.5% 46.5% +2.9% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-11-05
Connor Bedard
 CHI @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.9% +4.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-11-05
Nick Robertson
 TOR vs UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.9% 39.8% +3.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-11-04
Tage Thompson
 BUF vs UTA UNDER 3.5 best +120 49.8% 42.5% +9.5% 1 W +1.20 —
2025-11-04
Quinton Byfield
 LAK vs WPG OVER 1.5 lean -135 58.9% 54.1% +2.5% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-11-04
Trevor Moore
 LAK vs WPG OVER 1.5 lean -115 55.0% 50.0% +2.9% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-11-04
Alex DeBrincat
 DET @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.8% +2.5% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-11-04
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.8% 40.6% +3.0% 2 W +1.30 —
2025-11-04
J.T. Miller
 NYR vs CAR UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.7% 46.4% +2.8% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-11-04
Emil Heineman
 NYI vs BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.5% 46.5% +3.1% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-11-04
Barrett Hayton
 UTA @ BUF OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.5% 46.9% +3.0% 5 W +1.00 —
2025-11-03
Jake DeBrusk
 VAN @ NSH UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.1% 50.0% +6.8% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-11-03
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.0% 39.8% +3.4% 0 W +1.35 —
2025-11-03
Nick Robertson
 TOR vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.2% 38.0% +3.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-11-03
John Tavares
 TOR vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.7% +3.6% 0 W +1.25 —
2025-11-02
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs NJD UNDER 3.5 lean -130 58.6% 53.1% +3.7% 1 W +0.77 —
2025-11-02
Kirill Marchenko
 CBJ @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.1% 45.5% +2.6% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-11-01
Auston Matthews
 TOR @ PHI UNDER 3.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.7% +3.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-11-01
John Tavares
 TOR @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.4% 46.5% +4.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-11-01
Jake Sanderson
 OTT @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -145 60.8% 55.4% +2.8% 2 W +0.69 —
2025-11-01
Victor Olofsson
 COL @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.5% 56.7% +2.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-11-01
John Klingberg
 SJS vs COL UNDER 1.5 lean -115 55.1% 50.0% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-31
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs DET UNDER 3.5 best -145 63.5% 55.4% +7.3% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-10-31
Ryan Leonard
 WSH vs NYI UNDER 1.5 best +110 50.5% 44.6% +6.1% 0 W +1.10 —
2025-10-31
Victor Olofsson
 COL @ VGK UNDER 1.5 best +120 47.9% 42.5% +5.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-31
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs NYI UNDER 3.5 lean -135 59.3% 54.1% +3.2% 2 W +0.74 —
2025-10-30
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ SJS UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.2% 44.6% +5.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-30
Lukas Reichel
 VAN @ STL UNDER 1.5 best -130 59.9% 52.5% +5.9% 0 W +0.77 —
2025-10-30
Emil Heineman
 NYI @ CAR UNDER 1.5 best -120 60.5% 51.0% +10.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-30
Sean Walker
 CAR vs NYI UNDER 2.5 best -130 60.9% 53.1% +7.8% 2 W +0.77 —
2025-10-30
Alex Laferriere
 LAK vs DET UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.2% 60.2% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-30
Arseny Gritsyuk
 NJD @ SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.7% +3.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-30
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM vs NYR UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.8% 39.8% +3.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-30
Connor Bedard
 CHI @ WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.9% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-30
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ TBL UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.7% +3.8% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-10-30
Josh Doan
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -190 67.4% 61.1% +2.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-30
Tage Thompson
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 3.5 lean -115 56.1% 50.0% +4.9% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-10-29
Kirill Marchenko
 CBJ vs TOR UNDER 2.5 best +145 45.5% 38.2% +11.5% 1 W +1.45 —
2025-10-29
John Tavares
 TOR @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.6% 43.7% +6.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-29
Auston Matthews
 TOR @ CBJ UNDER 3.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.2% +2.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Alex Laferriere
 LAK @ SJS UNDER 2.5 best -140 62.1% 54.5% +6.4% 0 W +0.71 —
2025-10-28
Jake DeBrusk
 VAN vs NYR UNDER 2.5 best -130 59.5% 53.1% +5.2% 2 W +0.77 —
2025-10-28
Victor Olofsson
 COL vs NJD UNDER 1.5 best +135 46.0% 39.8% +8.2% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ COL UNDER 2.5 best +100 54.0% 46.9% +7.9% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-10-28
Gabriel Landeskog
 COL vs NJD OVER 1.5 best +120 49.0% 42.2% +7.8% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Alex DeBrincat
 DET @ STL UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.3% 40.9% +6.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Sean Walker
 CAR vs VGK UNDER 1.5 best +150 42.0% 37.5% +5.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ FLA UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.1% 42.5% +5.8% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Tage Thompson
 BUF vs CBJ UNDER 3.5 best +110 50.3% 44.6% +5.6% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Adrian Kempe
 LAK @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.6% +2.3% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-10-28
Zachary Bolduc
 MTL @ SEA UNDER 1.5 lean -110 53.6% 49.0% +2.4% 0 W +0.91 —
2025-10-28
Artemi Panarin
 NYR @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.6% +2.7% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-10-28
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.8% 50.0% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.5% 43.4% +4.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM vs UTA UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.9% +4.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Cale Makar
 COL vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.8% 43.4% +2.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Jake Sanderson
 OTT @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -165 63.8% 57.8% +2.5% 2 W +0.61 —
2025-10-28
Shane Pinto
 OTT @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -160 62.9% 57.5% +2.1% 1 W +0.63 —
2025-10-28
Dylan Cozens
 OTT @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.7% 51.0% +3.9% 0 W +0.83 —
2025-10-28
Tyler Seguin
 DAL vs WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -160 62.9% 57.5% +2.2% 2 W +0.63 —
2025-10-28
Emmitt Finnie
 DET @ STL UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.1% 40.6% +3.7% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-10-28
Jimmy Snuggerud
 STL vs DET UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.3% 38.9% +3.9% 0 W +1.40 —
2025-10-28
Nikita Kucherov
 TBL @ NSH UNDER 3.5 lean -170 64.2% 59.2% +2.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Seth Jarvis
 CAR vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.9% 46.5% +3.8% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-10-28
Matthew Schaefer
 NYI @ BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +160 39.8% 35.9% +3.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-28
Mackie Samoskevich
 FLA vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.5% 54.5% +3.7% 1 W +0.71 —
2025-10-28
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA vs ANA UNDER 3.5 lean -160 64.1% 57.5% +4.1% 1 W +0.63 —
2025-10-28
Evgeni Malkin
 PIT @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.0% 39.6% +3.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-27
Viktor Arvidsson
 BOS @ OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.8% 38.0% +2.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-27
Jimmy Snuggerud
 STL @ PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.8% +4.4% 2 L -1.00 —
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