← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-10-11 CAR vs PHI UNDER 1.5 best +100 53.0% 46.9% +5.9% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-10-11 WSH @ NYI UNDER 3.5 best -135 61.6% 54.1% +7.3% 2 W +0.74 —
2025-10-11 FLA vs OTT UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.0% 43.7% +5.4% 2 W +1.15 —
2025-10-11 TOR @ DET UNDER 1.5 best -110 55.4% 49.0% +5.8% 0 W +0.91 —
2025-10-11 BOS vs BUF UNDER 2.5 best -155 65.4% 56.7% +7.6% 2 W +0.65 —
2025-10-11 WPG vs LAK UNDER 1.5 best -120 57.5% 51.0% +5.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-11 VGK @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.8% 43.7% +2.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-11 VAN @ EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.7% 44.6% +4.3% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-10-11 MTL @ CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.3% 41.4% +4.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-11 CAR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.0% 51.0% +2.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-11 NYR @ PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.1% 39.8% +3.7% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-10-11 NYR @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -135 58.7% 54.1% +2.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-11 NYI vs WSH UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.9% 44.6% +2.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-11 FLA vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.9% 39.8% +3.2% 2 W +1.35 —
2025-10-11 TBL vs NJD OVER 2.5 lean +115 47.6% 43.4% +2.3% 4 W +1.15 —
2025-10-11 TOR @ DET UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.5% 41.7% +2.5% 0 W +1.25 —
2025-10-11 BUF @ BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.5% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-11 WPG vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -190 66.9% 61.1% +2.0% 2 W +0.53 —
2025-10-09 SJS vs VGK UNDER 2.5 best +130 45.7% 40.6% +5.2% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-10-09 VAN vs CGY UNDER 2.5 best -115 56.8% 50.0% +6.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 WPG vs DAL UNDER 1.5 best +100 54.7% 46.9% +9.4% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-10-09 WPG vs DAL UNDER 2.5 best -150 63.3% 55.8% +5.5% 0 W +0.67 —
2025-10-09 NJD @ CAR UNDER 1.5 best -155 65.2% 56.7% +7.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 FLA vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.1% 44.6% +5.2% 2 W +1.10 —
2025-10-09 TBL vs OTT UNDER 1.5 best +140 44.0% 39.1% +5.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 MTL @ DET UNDER 1.5 best +100 53.4% 46.5% +6.8% 0 W +1.00 —
2025-10-09 MTL @ DET UNDER 1.5 best +115 52.7% 43.4% +13.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 BOS vs CHI UNDER 2.5 best -135 64.5% 53.5% +12.3% 2 W +0.74 —
2025-10-09 VGK @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.4% 40.6% +2.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 CGY @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.3% 44.6% +3.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 UTA @ COL UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.5% +3.2% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 DAL @ WPG UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.9% 39.1% +2.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 CAR vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.9% 51.0% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 CAR vs NJD UNDER 1.5 lean -105 53.6% 48.0% +4.6% 1 W +0.95 —
2025-10-09 FLA vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.9% +2.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 FLA vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.2% 39.8% +3.9% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 PHI @ FLA OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.9% 45.5% +4.4% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 FLA vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.3% 41.7% +4.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 FLA vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.0% 43.4% +3.2% 2 W +1.15 —
2025-10-09 PHI @ FLA OVER 1.5 lean -130 57.7% 53.1% +2.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 FLA vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -145 62.0% 55.4% +4.7% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-10-09 OTT @ TBL UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.4% 42.5% +2.0% 0 W +1.20 —
2025-10-09 TBL vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -145 60.8% 55.4% +2.7% 1 W +0.69 —
2025-10-09 DET vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.0% 57.5% +2.3% 2 W +0.63 —
2025-10-09 MTL @ DET UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.3% 44.6% +3.5% 0 W +1.10 —
2025-10-09 NYR @ BUF UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.8% 42.5% +3.0% 2 W +1.20 —
2025-10-08 BOS @ WSH UNDER 1.5 best +150 46.4% 37.5% +15.9% 1 W +1.50 —
2025-10-08 WSH vs BOS UNDER 3.5 best -120 58.0% 51.0% +6.2% 3 W +0.83 —
2025-10-08 MTL @ TOR UNDER 1.5 best +110 51.1% 44.6% +7.3% 0 W +1.10 —
2025-10-08 TOR vs MTL UNDER 1.5 best +145 49.5% 38.2% +21.2% 0 W +1.45 —
2025-10-08 MTL @ TOR UNDER 1.5 lean -125 57.0% 51.5% +2.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-07 PIT @ NYR OVER 1.5 best -125 58.5% 52.0% +5.4% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-10-07 FLA vs CHI UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.1% 50.0% +6.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-07 NYR vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.6% 42.5% +4.7% 1 W +1.20 —
2025-10-07 NYR vs PIT UNDER 3.5 lean -175 65.3% 59.4% +2.6% 2 W +0.57 —
2025-10-07 NYR vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.8% +2.3% 0 W +1.35 —
2025-10-07 FLA vs CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.2% 38.2% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-07 CHI @ FLA OVER 1.5 lean +130 44.8% 40.9% +3.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-06-17 FLA vs EDM UNDER 1.5 best +140 44.9% 38.9% +7.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-06-17 EDM @ FLA UNDER 3.5 best -150 64.3% 56.3% +7.1% 3 W +0.67 —
2025-06-17 EDM @ FLA UNDER 1.5 best +125 46.8% 41.4% +5.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-06-17 FLA vs EDM UNDER 1.5 lean -145 60.5% 55.4% +2.1% 1 W +0.69 —
2025-06-17 EDM @ FLA UNDER 3.5 lean -165 63.8% 58.4% +2.4% 0 W +0.61 —
2025-06-17 FLA vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.7% 42.8% +4.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-06-17 EDM @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.4% 56.7% +2.6% 2 W +0.65 —
2025-06-14 EDM vs FLA UNDER 3.5 best -145 62.9% 55.4% +6.3% 3 W +0.69 —
2025-06-12 EDM @ FLA UNDER 2.5 best +180 43.0% 33.3% +20.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-06-12 EDM @ FLA UNDER 1.5 best +115 49.0% 43.4% +5.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-06-12 EDM @ FLA UNDER 3.5 lean -135 59.0% 53.5% +2.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-06-12 FLA vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.3% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-06-12 EDM @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.8% +4.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-06-12 EDM @ FLA OVER 1.5 lean +110 49.2% 44.3% +3.3% 2 W +1.10 —
2025-06-09 EDM @ FLA UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.8% 44.6% +6.6% 9 L -1.00 —
2025-06-09 EDM @ FLA UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.4% 39.8% +6.6% 0 W +1.35 —
2025-06-09 EDM @ FLA UNDER 1.5 best +115 49.6% 43.7% +6.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-06-09 FLA vs EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.7% 39.1% +4.8% 0 W +1.40 —
2025-06-09 EDM @ FLA UNDER 3.5 lean -130 58.4% 53.1% +3.4% 2 W +0.77 —
2025-06-06 EDM vs FLA UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.3% 41.7% +4.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-06-06 FLA @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.5% 42.8% +4.5% 2 W +1.20 —
2025-06-06 EDM vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.2% 39.8% +3.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-06-06 EDM vs FLA UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.8% 45.5% +4.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-06-04 FLA @ EDM UNDER 1.5 best +130 45.8% 40.6% +5.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-06-04 FLA @ EDM OVER 1.5 best +125 46.8% 41.7% +5.3% 4 W +1.25 —
2025-06-04 EDM vs FLA UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.3% 47.5% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-05-29 EDM @ DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.9% +2.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-05-28 FLA @ CAR UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.5% 43.7% +4.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-05-28 FLA @ CAR OVER 1.5 lean +135 44.6% 39.8% +4.9% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-05-26 FLA vs CAR UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.7% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-05-22 CAR vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.3% 47.5% +4.0% 0 W +0.95 —
2025-05-22 CAR vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.9% 51.0% +2.5% 1 W +0.83 —
2025-05-22 FLA @ CAR UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.9% 41.7% +3.2% 0 W +1.25 —
2025-05-20 CAR vs FLA UNDER 2.5 best +105 52.0% 45.5% +6.6% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-05-18 TOR vs FLA UNDER 3.5 lean -105 53.1% 48.0% +3.7% 2 W +0.95 —
2025-05-18 FLA @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.6% 40.9% +5.0% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-05-18 TOR vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.5% 44.6% +3.9% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-05-17 WPG @ DAL UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.9% 39.8% +7.9% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-05-16 TOR @ FLA OVER 1.5 lean +145 42.7% 38.2% +4.5% 3 W +1.45 —
2025-05-15 CAR @ WSH UNDER 2.5 best +115 50.4% 43.4% +8.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-05-15 CAR @ WSH UNDER 2.5 best +100 53.7% 46.9% +7.4% 0 W +1.00 —
2025-05-15 DAL @ WPG OVER 1.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.5% +3.2% 2 W +1.20 —
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