← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2024-12-27 BUF vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -170 64.3% 59.2% +2.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-27 BUF vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.5% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-27 BUF vs CHI UNDER 3.5 lean -155 62.4% 56.7% +2.6% 1 W +0.65 —
2024-12-23 ANA @ VGK UNDER 1.5 best +135 45.5% 39.8% +6.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-23 DAL @ UTA UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.2% 38.0% +5.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-23 CAR @ NSH UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.0% 44.6% +5.1% 1 W +1.10 —
2024-12-23 CAR @ NSH UNDER 2.5 best +105 52.3% 45.5% +7.1% 2 W +1.05 —
2024-12-23 CAR @ NSH UNDER 1.5 best +140 45.2% 38.9% +8.5% 1 W +1.40 —
2024-12-23 NSH vs CAR UNDER 3.5 best -125 58.5% 52.0% +5.3% 0 W +0.80 —
2024-12-23 NSH vs CAR UNDER 2.5 best +115 50.2% 43.4% +8.0% 1 W +1.15 —
2024-12-23 CAR @ NSH UNDER 2.5 best -175 67.1% 59.4% +5.4% 0 W +0.57 —
2024-12-23 MTL @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 best +115 53.0% 43.4% +14.0% 0 W +1.15 —
2024-12-23 FLA vs TBL UNDER 2.5 best -160 65.2% 57.5% +5.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-23 BOS vs WSH UNDER 2.5 best -105 54.0% 48.0% +5.5% 2 W +0.95 —
2024-12-23 NYR @ NJD UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.1% 40.6% +5.9% 1 W +1.30 —
2024-12-23 ANA @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.1% 38.2% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-23 ANA @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.9% 41.4% +3.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-23 ANA @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.2% 44.3% +3.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-23 DAL @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.4% 43.7% +4.1% 2 W +1.15 —
2024-12-23 UTA vs DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.9% 51.0% +4.4% 2 W +0.83 —
2024-12-23 DAL @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.5% 54.1% +3.5% 1 W +0.74 —
2024-12-23 DAL @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -130 57.8% 52.5% +2.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-23 SJS @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.2% 42.8% +3.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-23 MIN vs CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.7% 39.8% +2.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-23 CAR @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -135 58.6% 53.5% +2.1% 2 W +0.74 —
2024-12-23 BUF @ NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.3% 38.9% +3.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-23 BUF @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.1% 42.5% +3.7% 1 W +1.20 —
2024-12-23 PHI @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.6% +3.0% 1 W +1.10 —
2024-12-23 PIT vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.7% +2.5% 2 W +1.25 —
2024-12-23 TBL @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.4% 40.6% +4.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-23 TBL @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.3% 60.9% +2.1% 1 W +0.54 —
2024-12-23 WSH @ BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.0% 41.7% +3.5% 0 W +1.25 —
2024-12-23 WSH @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.8% 56.7% +3.3% 0 W +0.65 —
2024-12-22 EDM vs OTT UNDER 2.5 best -150 64.0% 56.3% +6.6% 1 W +0.67 —
2024-12-22 SEA @ COL UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.1% 38.2% +5.5% 0 W +1.45 —
2024-12-22 LAK @ WSH UNDER 2.5 best -150 63.1% 56.3% +5.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-22 FLA @ TBL UNDER 2.5 best -175 67.5% 59.4% +6.1% 1 W +0.57 —
2024-12-22 CAR @ NYR UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.6% 43.4% +6.7% 2 W +1.15 —
2024-12-22 CAR @ NYR UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.9% 38.2% +7.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-22 CAR @ NYR UNDER 2.5 best -155 64.2% 57.2% +5.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-22 OTT @ EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.6% 43.7% +2.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-22 OTT @ EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.4% +2.1% 1 W +1.15 —
2024-12-22 EDM vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.1% 45.5% +2.7% 0 W +1.05 —
2024-12-22 OTT @ EDM UNDER 3.5 lean -120 56.0% 50.5% +2.7% 3 W +0.83 —
2024-12-22 COL vs SEA UNDER 3.5 lean -160 64.0% 57.5% +4.0% 7 L -1.00 —
2024-12-22 SEA @ COL UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.7% 48.0% +4.8% 2 W +0.95 —
2024-12-22 ANA @ UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.9% 38.9% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-22 UTA vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.8% 43.4% +2.7% 1 W +1.15 —
2024-12-22 WSH vs LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.9% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-22 WSH vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -150 62.7% 56.3% +4.5% 0 W +0.67 —
2024-12-22 LAK @ WSH UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.0% 41.7% +3.6% 1 W +1.25 —
2024-12-22 TBL vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -155 63.6% 56.7% +4.7% 2 W +0.65 —
2024-12-22 NYR vs CAR UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.3% 40.6% +4.2% 1 W +1.30 —
2024-12-21 PHI vs CBJ UNDER 3.5 best -170 66.7% 59.2% +6.0% 3 W +0.59 —
2024-12-21 MTL vs DET UNDER 2.5 best -105 55.2% 48.0% +7.8% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-21 BOS vs BUF UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.4% 45.9% +5.4% 1 W +1.05 —
2024-12-21 NSH vs LAK UNDER 2.5 best +135 49.2% 39.8% +15.6% 2 W +1.35 —
2024-12-21 VGK vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -185 67.3% 60.9% +3.7% 1 W +0.54 —
2024-12-21 SEA @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.2% 49.0% +3.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-21 OTT @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.2% 42.5% +3.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-21 OTT @ VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -105 53.1% 48.0% +3.6% 0 W +0.95 —
2024-12-21 VAN vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.9% 45.9% +4.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-21 WPG vs MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.3% +2.9% 1 W +1.10 —
2024-12-21 MIN @ WPG UNDER 3.5 lean +110 49.2% 44.6% +3.4% 3 W +1.10 —
2024-12-21 PHI vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.8% +2.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-21 CBJ @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.3% 53.1% +3.1% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-21 NJD vs PIT UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.2% 54.5% +3.1% 3 W +0.71 —
2024-12-21 PIT @ NJD UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.8% 38.9% +2.8% 0 W +1.40 —
2024-12-21 TOR vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.6% 53.5% +3.7% 2 W +0.74 —
2024-12-21 BUF @ BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.6% 42.5% +4.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-21 BOS vs BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.5% 38.9% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-21 BUF @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.6% 40.9% +4.8% 2 W +1.30 —
2024-12-21 SJS @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.6% +2.9% 2 W +1.10 —
2024-12-21 CGY vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -190 66.9% 61.1% +2.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-20 UTA @ MIN UNDER 2.5 best +100 54.1% 46.9% +8.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-20 NYR @ DAL UNDER 1.5 best +125 46.9% 41.7% +5.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-20 NYR @ DAL UNDER 2.5 best -135 62.4% 53.5% +8.7% 0 W +0.74 —
2024-12-20 CAR @ WSH UNDER 2.5 best -180 68.3% 60.2% +6.3% 2 W +0.56 —
2024-12-20 FLA vs STL UNDER 2.5 best -175 67.4% 59.4% +5.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-20 MTL @ DET UNDER 2.5 best -105 56.2% 48.0% +9.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-20 ANA vs COL UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.0% 38.9% +3.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-20 ANA vs COL UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.8% +2.2% 0 W +1.35 —
2024-12-20 COL @ ANA UNDER 3.5 lean -130 59.3% 52.5% +4.9% 7 L -1.00 —
2024-12-20 UTA @ MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.5% 38.0% +4.2% 1 W +1.45 —
2024-12-20 MIN vs UTA UNDER 3.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.5% +3.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-20 NYR @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -165 64.5% 58.4% +3.6% 2 W +0.61 —
2024-12-20 NYR @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.7% 51.0% +3.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-20 CAR @ WSH UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.8% 46.9% +3.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-20 CAR @ WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.5% 47.5% +4.4% 1 W +0.95 —
2024-12-20 CAR @ WSH UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.6% 43.7% +4.4% 1 W +1.15 —
2024-12-20 BUF vs TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.6% 39.1% +4.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-20 BUF vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -175 65.3% 59.4% +2.6% 1 W +0.57 —
2024-12-20 BUF vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.6% +2.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-19 VAN @ VGK UNDER 2.5 best +105 52.1% 45.5% +6.8% 2 W +1.05 —
2024-12-19 BOS @ EDM UNDER 3.5 best +105 51.7% 45.9% +6.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-19 SEA @ CHI UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.3% 43.4% +6.0% 2 W +1.15 —
2024-12-19 LAK @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best -155 65.5% 57.2% +7.8% 2 W +0.65 —
2024-12-19 LAK @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.2% 41.7% +6.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-19 LAK @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.1% 43.4% +5.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-19 SJS vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.0% 40.6% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
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