← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2024-12-19 SJS vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.7% 55.8% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-19 VGK vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -195 68.6% 61.8% +3.8% 0 W +0.51 —
2024-12-19 VGK vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.8% 56.3% +2.9% 2 W +0.67 —
2024-12-19 VGK vs VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.4% 40.6% +2.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-19 BOS @ EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.5% 41.7% +2.3% 0 W +1.25 —
2024-12-19 EDM vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.7% 44.6% +2.2% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-19 EDM vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.6% 60.9% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-19 BOS @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -125 58.2% 52.0% +4.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-19 CGY vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -145 60.6% 55.4% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-19 SEA @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -165 64.3% 58.4% +3.2% 2 W +0.61 —
2024-12-19 PIT @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -170 64.6% 59.2% +2.6% 0 W +0.59 —
2024-12-19 NSH vs PIT UNDER 3.5 lean +110 48.7% 44.3% +2.4% 1 W +1.10 —
2024-12-19 CBJ vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.3% 47.5% +2.2% 1 W +0.95 —
2024-12-19 LAK @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.6% 39.6% +4.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-19 PHI vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.0% 49.0% +3.1% 1 W +0.91 —
2024-12-19 LAK @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.6% 54.5% +2.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-19 TBL vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.4% 54.5% +3.6% 1 W +0.71 —
2024-12-18 FLA @ MIN UNDER 2.5 best -175 68.5% 59.4% +7.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-18 ANA vs WPG UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.2% 38.2% +3.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-18 ANA vs WPG UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.5% 39.1% +2.1% 1 W +1.40 —
2024-12-18 WPG @ ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.3% 42.8% +4.0% 1 W +1.20 —
2024-12-18 UTA vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.8% 49.0% +2.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-18 VAN @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean +105 51.0% 45.5% +4.5% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-18 FLA @ MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -180 67.2% 60.2% +4.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-18 TOR @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.5% +3.3% 0 W +1.20 —
2024-12-18 PHI @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.7% 43.4% +4.6% 2 W +1.15 —
2024-12-17 CGY vs BOS UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.0% 38.2% +5.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-17 BOS @ CGY UNDER 3.5 best +120 48.1% 42.8% +5.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-17 WSH @ CHI UNDER 1.5 best +140 43.9% 39.1% +5.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-17 WSH @ CHI UNDER 2.5 best +100 55.5% 46.9% +11.1% 1 W +1.00 —
2024-12-17 CAR vs NYI UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.2% 50.0% +6.9% 1 W +0.87 —
2024-12-17 CAR vs NYI UNDER 1.5 best +105 51.6% 45.5% +5.9% 0 W +1.05 —
2024-12-17 CAR vs NYI UNDER 2.5 best -145 64.3% 55.4% +8.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-17 MTL vs BUF UNDER 2.5 best -105 54.3% 48.0% +6.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-17 SEA vs OTT UNDER 1.5 lean -120 57.2% 51.0% +4.9% 0 W +0.83 —
2024-12-17 OTT @ SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.1% 39.6% +3.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-17 OTT @ SEA UNDER 3.5 lean +100 52.1% 46.9% +4.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-17 BOS @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.5% 48.5% +4.0% 2 W +0.91 —
2024-12-17 WSH @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.7% 48.0% +4.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-17 NYR @ NSH UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.8% 39.8% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-17 NYR @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.1% 53.5% +2.9% 2 W +0.74 —
2024-12-17 NJD @ STL UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.3% 38.4% +3.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-17 CAR vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.2% 42.5% +3.8% 1 W +1.20 —
2024-12-17 CAR vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.1% 42.5% +3.7% 0 W +1.20 —
2024-12-17 CAR vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean -210 69.3% 63.3% +2.2% 1 W +0.48 —
2024-12-16 FLA @ EDM UNDER 1.5 best +140 46.5% 39.1% +11.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-16 WSH @ DAL UNDER 2.5 best -135 62.1% 53.5% +8.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-16 VAN vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean +105 51.1% 45.2% +4.7% 2 W +1.05 —
2024-12-16 COL @ VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -200 68.7% 62.5% +3.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-16 COL @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.9% +2.4% 2 W +1.30 —
2024-12-16 FLA @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.6% 43.7% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-16 FLA @ EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.9% 39.8% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-16 DAL vs WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -145 60.4% 55.4% +2.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-15 MIN vs VGK UNDER 3.5 best -130 60.4% 53.1% +6.8% 0 W +0.77 —
2024-12-15 VGK @ MIN UNDER 1.5 best +140 45.5% 38.9% +9.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-15 CAR vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 best -130 61.3% 52.5% +8.4% 1 W +0.77 —
2024-12-15 BUF @ TOR UNDER 1.5 best +135 45.0% 39.6% +5.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-15 MIN vs VGK UNDER 3.5 lean -105 53.5% 48.0% +4.4% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-15 MIN vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -185 67.8% 60.9% +4.5% 0 W +0.54 —
2024-12-15 CBJ @ CAR UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.2% 41.7% +4.0% 1 W +1.25 —
2024-12-15 CAR vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -110 55.0% 49.0% +4.9% 2 W +0.91 —
2024-12-15 CBJ @ CAR UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.9% 54.5% +2.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-15 CBJ @ CAR UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.7% +3.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-15 CAR vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.5% 60.2% +3.5% 2 W +0.56 —
2024-12-15 BUF @ TOR UNDER 3.5 lean -145 61.7% 55.4% +4.3% 2 W +0.69 —
2024-12-15 NYI @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.7% 49.0% +2.5% 2 W +0.91 —
2024-12-14 VAN vs BOS UNDER 2.5 best +110 51.2% 44.6% +7.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 BOS @ VAN UNDER 3.5 best +115 49.3% 43.7% +6.0% 1 W +1.15 —
2024-12-14 BOS @ VAN UNDER 2.5 best -115 56.8% 50.0% +6.2% 7 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 FLA @ CGY UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.8% 40.6% +7.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 NSH @ COL UNDER 3.5 best -105 54.5% 48.0% +6.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 DAL vs STL UNDER 1.5 best +150 42.2% 37.5% +5.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 WSH vs BUF UNDER 2.5 best -120 57.4% 51.0% +5.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 TOR @ DET UNDER 2.5 best +110 52.8% 44.6% +10.8% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 MIN vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best -165 66.8% 58.4% +7.3% 0 W +0.61 —
2024-12-14 TBL @ SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.3% 42.5% +4.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 UTA @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.1% 49.0% +3.2% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 SJS vs UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.7% 55.8% +2.8% 1 W +0.67 —
2024-12-14 CGY vs FLA UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.9% 38.0% +2.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 CGY vs FLA UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.6% +2.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 FLA @ CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.3% 38.9% +4.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 CGY vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -180 65.8% 60.2% +2.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 NSH @ COL UNDER 2.5 lean -160 64.2% 57.5% +4.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 DAL vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.9% +2.4% 0 W +1.30 —
2024-12-14 DAL vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.6% 50.0% +2.1% 2 W +0.87 —
2024-12-14 BUF @ WSH UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.6% 54.5% +3.8% 1 W +0.71 —
2024-12-14 EDM vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.8% 54.5% +2.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-14 MIN vs PHI UNDER 3.5 lean -110 54.2% 49.0% +3.4% 3 W +0.91 —
2024-12-14 LAK @ NYR UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.5% 54.1% +3.6% 0 W +0.74 —
2024-12-14 NJD vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.8% 56.7% +3.4% 2 W +0.65 —
2024-12-13 CAR vs OTT UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.3% 39.6% +6.5% 0 W +1.35 —
2024-12-13 CAR vs OTT UNDER 1.5 best +135 45.5% 39.8% +6.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-13 CAR vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.9% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-13 CAR vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.9% 60.2% +4.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 BOS @ SEA UNDER 3.5 best +110 50.3% 44.6% +5.6% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 BOS @ SEA UNDER 2.5 best -120 57.7% 51.0% +5.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 VAN vs FLA UNDER 2.5 best +110 51.9% 44.6% +9.0% 2 W +1.10 —
2024-12-12 FLA @ VAN UNDER 1.5 best +150 43.5% 37.5% +8.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 FLA @ VAN UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.5% 43.7% +6.4% 1 W +1.15 —
2024-12-12 FLA @ VAN UNDER 1.5 best +145 45.5% 38.2% +11.6% 2 L -1.00 —
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