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SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2026-10-10
Zayne Parekh
 CGY vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +105 49.9% 44.2% +2.3% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-10-10
Joel Farabee
 CGY vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.6% +4.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Mikael Granlund
 ANA @ CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.4% 40.6% +2.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Kirill Marchenko
 TOR @ COL UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.9% +3.2% 0 W +1.00 —
2026-10-10
Nick Paul
 TOR @ COL UNDER 1.5 lean -130 58.2% 53.1% +2.9% 0 W +0.77 —
2026-10-10
Jimmy Snuggerud
 STL vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.8% 49.0% +4.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Matthew Knies
 CBJ @ STL UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.6% 42.5% +4.6% 0 W +1.20 —
2026-10-10
Sean Walker
 CAR @ CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.6% 43.4% +2.3% 1 W +1.15 —
2026-10-10
Sebastian Aho
 CAR @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.8% 53.1% +4.1% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Thomas Harley
 DAL @ PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.2% 44.6% +3.2% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Roope Hintz
 DAL @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -165 63.6% 57.8% +2.1% 1 W +0.61 —
2026-10-10
Mikko Rantanen
 DAL @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.1% 53.3% +3.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Tyler Seguin
 DAL @ PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.9% 44.6% +4.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Tim Stützle
 OTT vs NSH UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.5% 46.5% +4.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Dylan Cozens
 OTT vs NSH UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.2% 46.5% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Drake Batherson
 OTT vs NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.1% 51.0% +2.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Maxim Shabanov
 MIN @ FLA UNDER 1.5 lean -125 56.9% 52.0% +2.4% 1 W +0.80 —
2026-10-10
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ FLA UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.9% 54.5% +4.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Joel Eriksson Ek
 MIN @ FLA OVER 2.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.5% +3.2% 3 W +1.20 —
2026-10-10
Connor McDavid
 EDM @ SJS UNDER 3.5 lean -120 55.8% 51.0% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.7% 43.7% +2.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Luke Hughes
 NJD vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.2% 53.5% +3.0% 1 W +0.74 —
2026-10-10
Luke Evangelista
 NJD vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -150 62.0% 56.3% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Nico Hischier
 NJD vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.0% 50.0% +2.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Evan Rodrigues
 NJD vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -170 65.4% 58.6% +3.9% 1 W +0.59 —
2026-10-10
Jake DeBrusk
 VAN @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -135 58.9% 53.5% +2.5% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Anthony Mantha
 NJD vs VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.1% 44.6% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-10
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.2% 52.0% +3.0% 2 W +0.80 —
2026-10-10
Tyson Foerster
 PHI @ BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.4% 38.9% +4.1% 1 W +1.40 —
2026-10-10
David Pastrnak
 BOS vs PHI UNDER 3.5 lean -110 55.0% 47.0% +5.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-09
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ WPG UNDER 3.5 best +100 57.2% 46.9% +14.3% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-09
Neal Pionk
 WPG vs ANA UNDER 1.5 best +135 45.3% 39.6% +6.4% 0 W +1.35 —
2026-10-09
Kyle Connor
 WPG vs ANA UNDER 3.5 best -130 59.4% 53.1% +5.1% 3 W +0.77 —
2026-10-09
Kent Johnson
 CBJ vs PIT UNDER 1.5 best -115 56.6% 48.2% +5.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-09
Berkly Catton
 SEA @ DET UNDER 1.5 best -110 56.4% 47.3% +7.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-09
Shane Wright
 SEA @ DET UNDER 1.5 best -145 62.3% 55.4% +5.2% 0 W +0.69 —
2026-10-09
Lucas Raymond
 DET vs SEA UNDER 2.5 best +100 54.8% 46.9% +9.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-09
Viktor Arvidsson
 DET vs SEA UNDER 2.5 best -110 55.7% 45.4% +6.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-09
Dylan Larkin
 DET vs SEA UNDER 3.5 best -160 64.9% 57.5% +5.4% 1 W +0.63 —
2026-10-09
Cole Perfetti
 WPG vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -145 62.0% 55.4% +4.7% 0 W +0.69 —
2026-10-09
Ben Kindel
 PIT @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.6% 45.5% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-09
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.4% 40.6% +2.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-09
Dmitri Voronkov
 CBJ vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean -145 60.8% 52.0% +2.8% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-09
Tommy Novak
 PIT @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean +100 52.2% 46.5% +4.4% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-09
Cole Hutson
 WSH vs NYR UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.4% 48.0% +2.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-09
Pavel Dorofeyev
 NYR @ WSH UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.2% 46.5% +4.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-09
Ryan Winterton
 SEA @ DET UNDER 1.5 lean -135 58.8% 54.1% +2.3% 0 W +0.74 —
2026-10-09
Alex DeBrincat
 DET vs SEA UNDER 3.5 lean -130 58.2% 52.5% +3.0% 3 W +0.77 —
2026-10-09
Vince Dunn
 SEA @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.4% 60.2% +3.3% 2 W +0.56 —
2026-10-08
Jeremy Lauzon
 VGK vs TOR UNDER 1.5 best -155 66.2% 57.2% +8.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-08
Adam Jiricek
 STL vs SJS UNDER 1.5 best +145 51.4% 38.2% +25.9% 1 W +1.45 —
2026-10-08
Jimmy Snuggerud
 STL vs SJS UNDER 2.5 best +120 50.7% 42.5% +11.4% 1 W +1.20 —
2026-10-08
Mason McTavish
 STL vs SJS UNDER 2.5 best -170 68.6% 59.2% +8.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-10-08
Kyle Palmieri
 NYI vs CHI UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.6% 50.0% +7.6% 1 W +0.87 —
2026-10-08
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best +115 51.2% 43.4% +10.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-08
Sean Walker
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best -175 67.1% 59.4% +5.5% 0 W +0.57 —
2026-10-08
Sebastian Aho
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best +100 54.3% 46.5% +8.5% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-08
William Carrier
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 1.5 best -155 65.0% 54.3% +6.9% 1 W +0.65 —
2026-10-08
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 1.5 best +125 49.1% 41.7% +10.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-08
William Eklund
 OTT vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best -135 62.8% 52.9% +9.3% 0 W +0.74 —
2026-10-08
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT vs PHI UNDER 1.5 best -115 57.5% 50.0% +7.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-08
Matthew Wood
 NSH @ MTL UNDER 1.5 best -110 55.3% 48.5% +5.5% 1 W +0.91 —
2026-10-08
Cole Caufield
 MTL vs NSH UNDER 3.5 best -120 59.5% 51.0% +9.0% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-08
JJ Peterka
 BOS vs UTA UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.9% 40.6% +7.9% 0 W +1.30 —
2026-10-08
Brayden McNabb
 VGK vs TOR UNDER 1.5 lean -140 60.3% 54.5% +3.4% 1 W +0.71 —
2026-10-08
T.J. Hughes
 COL @ CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.3% 44.3% +2.6% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-10-08
Nathan MacKinnon
 COL @ CGY UNDER 3.5 lean +105 49.8% 45.9% +2.1% 2 W +1.05 —
2026-10-08
Elias Pettersson
 VAN @ CAR UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.2% 46.5% +2.4% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-08
Jake DeBrusk
 VAN @ CAR UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.1% 38.4% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-08
Nikolaj Ehlers
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.8% 46.9% +3.6% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-10-08
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ TBL UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.4% 40.9% +4.4% 0 W +1.30 —
2026-10-08
Ryan Hartman
 MIN @ TBL OVER 1.5 lean -120 56.2% 51.0% +3.0% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-10-08
Carter Yakemchuk
 OTT vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean -130 58.9% 53.1% +4.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-08
Owen Tippett
 PHI @ OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.6% 52.0% +3.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-10-08
Jonathan Marchessault
 NSH @ MTL OVER 1.5 lean +105 51.1% 45.5% +4.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-10-08
Nikita Zadorov
 BOS vs UTA UNDER 1.5 lean -135 60.3% 53.5% +4.9% 1 W +0.74 —
2026-10-08
Hampus Lindholm
 BOS vs UTA UNDER 1.5 lean -130 58.6% 52.5% +3.7% 1 W +0.77 —
2026-10-07
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs EDM UNDER 3.5 best -130 61.2% 52.5% +8.3% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-10-07
Vasily Podkolzin
 EDM @ ANA UNDER 2.5 best -130 64.5% 53.1% +14.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-07
T.J. Hughes
 COL @ WPG UNDER 1.5 best +125 48.8% 41.7% +9.7% 1 W +1.25 —
2026-10-07
Ben Kindel
 PIT @ WSH UNDER 1.5 best +135 48.3% 39.8% +13.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-07
Ilya Protas
 WSH vs PIT OVER 1.5 best +140 45.4% 39.1% +8.9% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-10-07
Jakob Chychrun
 WSH vs PIT UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.2% 50.0% +6.9% 1 W +0.87 —
2026-10-07
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ ANA UNDER 3.5 lean -170 65.8% 56.4% +4.6% 2 W +0.59 —
2026-10-07
Cole Perfetti
 WPG vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean -175 64.9% 59.4% +2.0% 2 W +0.57 —
2026-10-07
Cole Hutson
 WSH vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.8% 46.9% +3.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-07
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT @ WSH UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.4% 39.1% +4.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-07
Tommy Novak
 PIT @ WSH UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.6% 48.0% +2.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-06
Rasmus Andersson
 VGK @ SEA UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.8% 40.6% +7.6% 0 W +1.30 —
2026-10-06
Tomas Hertl
 VGK @ SEA UNDER 2.5 best -150 65.5% 56.3% +9.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-06
Mason McTavish
 STL @ CHI UNDER 1.5 best +115 49.3% 41.7% +6.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-10-06
Dylan Holloway
 STL @ CHI UNDER 2.5 best +110 51.3% 44.6% +7.7% 1 W +1.10 —
2026-10-06
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ BUF UNDER 3.5 best -145 62.2% 55.4% +5.1% 3 W +0.69 —
2026-10-06
Pavel Dorofeyev
 NYR vs NYI UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.8% 43.7% +7.1% 0 W +1.15 —
2026-10-06
Bo Horvat
 NYI @ NYR UNDER 3.5 best -155 64.1% 57.2% +5.5% 2 W +0.65 —
2026-10-06
Axel Sandin-Pellikka
 DET vs OTT UNDER 1.5 best -165 67.2% 58.4% +7.9% 1 W +0.61 —
2026-10-06
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT @ DET UNDER 1.5 best -115 57.9% 50.0% +8.3% 0 W +0.87 —
2026-10-06
Viktor Arvidsson
 DET vs OTT UNDER 2.5 best +115 56.1% 43.4% +20.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-06
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ MTL UNDER 2.5 best +100 53.9% 44.8% +7.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-10-06
Sebastian Aho
 CAR @ MTL UNDER 2.5 best -105 53.8% 44.9% +5.1% 3 L -1.00 —
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