← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2024-10-22 UTA vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.0% 43.7% +3.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-22 CAR @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.9% 43.7% +3.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-22 CGY vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.4% 42.5% +2.0% 2 W +1.20 —
2024-10-22 WPG @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.4% 40.6% +2.2% 0 W +1.30 —
2024-10-22 TOR @ CBJ UNDER 4.5 lean +115 48.0% 43.7% +3.2% 2 W +1.15 —
2024-10-21 TBL @ TOR UNDER 3.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-20 LAK @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.6% 51.0% +3.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-20 COL @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.5% 46.9% +4.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-19 CGY @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.5% +3.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-19 UTA vs BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.8% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-19 CAR @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.5% +2.4% 8 L -1.00 —
2024-10-19 CAR @ STL UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.7% 39.1% +2.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-10-19 NYR @ TOR UNDER 3.5 lean -120 55.9% 51.0% +2.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-10-19 NYR @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.7% +2.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-19 TBL @ OTT UNDER 3.5 lean +105 49.8% 45.9% +2.1% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-10-18 COL vs ANA UNDER 2.5 best +105 53.0% 45.5% +8.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-10-18 COL vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -165 64.8% 58.4% +4.0% 1 W +0.61 —
2024-10-18 COL vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.6% 60.9% +2.6% 1 W +0.54 —
2024-10-18 CAR @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.5% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-17 NSH vs EDM UNDER 4.5 lean -165 63.5% 58.4% +2.0% 1 W +0.61 —
2024-10-17 CBJ vs BUF UNDER 2.5 lean -125 56.8% 52.0% +2.2% 2 W +0.80 —
2024-10-17 FLA vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.6% +2.4% 2 W +1.30 —
2024-10-17 NJD @ OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.7% 44.6% +4.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-10-17 LAK @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.3% 51.0% +3.1% 1 W +0.83 —
2024-10-16 COL vs BOS UNDER 2.5 best -135 60.7% 54.1% +5.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-16 UTA @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.7% +3.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-16 COL vs BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.6% +2.3% 0 W +1.35 —
2024-10-16 LAK @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -130 59.3% 52.5% +4.9% 2 W +0.77 —
2024-10-15 NJD @ CAR UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.7% 39.8% +7.4% 1 W +1.35 —
2024-10-15 CBJ vs FLA UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.8% 39.6% +2.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-10-15 CBJ vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -130 59.2% 53.1% +4.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-15 CAR vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.4% 41.4% +2.2% 1 W +1.25 —
2024-10-14 COL vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean -150 62.6% 56.3% +4.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-14 DET @ NYR UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.8% +2.1% 2 W +1.35 —
2024-10-14 UTA @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.3% 1 W +1.05 —
2024-10-14 NJD vs UTA UNDER 3.5 lean -115 56.1% 50.0% +4.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-14 LAK @ OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.6% +2.9% 2 W +1.30 —
2024-10-14 OTT vs LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.3% 43.7% +3.9% 0 W +1.15 —
2024-10-14 OTT vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.4% 53.5% +3.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-10-14 FLA @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.0% 40.6% +3.4% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-10-13 VGK vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.5% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-13 SEA @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.9% 44.6% +4.9% 0 W +1.10 —
2024-10-12 FLA @ BUF UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.0% 40.9% +5.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-12 ANA @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.7% 48.0% +4.9% 1 W +0.95 —
2024-10-12 CGY vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.8% 38.9% +2.6% 0 W +1.40 —
2024-10-12 CGY vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.3% 46.9% +2.6% 1 W +1.00 —
2024-10-12 CBJ @ COL UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.1% 56.7% +2.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-12 NYI @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.6% 40.9% +2.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-12 NYI @ DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.4% +2.2% 1 W +1.15 —
2024-10-12 UTA @ NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.0% 43.7% +3.1% 0 W +1.15 —
2024-10-12 NYR vs UTA UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.4% 42.5% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-12 DET vs NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -145 61.6% 55.4% +4.0% 1 W +0.69 —
2024-10-12 FLA @ BUF UNDER 2.5 lean -160 62.8% 57.5% +2.1% 1 W +0.63 —
2024-10-11 PHI @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -155 63.5% 56.7% +4.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-11 PHI @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.9% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-11 VAN vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.7% 42.5% +2.7% 0 W +1.20 —
2024-10-11 CAR vs TBL UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.0% 41.7% +3.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-10-10 NJD vs TOR UNDER 1.5 best +100 52.8% 46.9% +5.6% 0 W +1.00 —
2024-10-10 CBJ @ MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -170 65.6% 59.2% +4.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-10 CBJ @ MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.2% 38.9% +3.7% 0 W +1.40 —
2024-10-10 UTA @ NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.7% 42.5% +2.8% 1 W +1.20 —
2024-10-10 NJD vs TOR UNDER 3.5 lean -150 62.0% 56.3% +3.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-10 DET vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -145 61.6% 55.4% +4.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-10 LAK @ BUF UNDER 2.5 lean -170 65.6% 59.2% +4.3% 0 W +0.59 —
2024-10-09 CGY @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -190 67.0% 61.1% +2.2% 1 W +0.53 —
2024-10-09 WPG @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.2% 42.5% +3.8% 0 W +1.20 —
2024-10-08 UTA vs CHI UNDER 1.5 best +140 43.8% 38.9% +5.1% 1 W +1.40 —
2024-10-08 SEA vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.8% +2.3% 2 W +1.35 —
2024-10-05 BUF @ NJD UNDER 3.5 lean -115 55.0% 50.0% +2.8% 3 W +0.87 —
2024-10-04 NJD @ BUF UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.6% 44.6% +2.1% 4 L -1.00 —
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