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TBL @ BUF

Saturday, April 5, 2025 · 6:00 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's most recent starter as the probable starter (confirmed starters are not published in advance). Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Tampa Bay Lightning
47-27-8 · Away
2 – 3
FINAL / SO
Buffalo Sabres
36-39-7 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock closing line
Moneyline
TBL -220 · BUF +170
Puck Line
TBL -1.5 (+105) · BUF +1.5 (-130)
Total
O 6.5 (-115) · U (-105)

Graded: total 5 → OVER L · BUF +1.5 W

Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Game Total
Over 6.5
 TBLo6.5 43%
32-43
60%
3-2
50%
5-5
45%
17-21
20%
1-4
45%
32-39-3
BUFo6.5 57%
42-32
80%
4-1
70%
7-3
61%
22-14
20%
1-4
64%
42-24-7
Puck Line
cover %
 TBL-1.5 45%
34-41
80%
4-1
60%
6-4
34%
13-25
20%
1-4
+11.67u
40-34
BUF+1.5 61%
45-29
80%
4-1
70%
7-3
72%
26-10
80%
4-1
-9.08u
37-36
Moneyline
win %
 TBL fav -220 59%
44-31
80%
4-1
70%
7-3
45%
17-21
40%
2-3
+5.27u
38-17
BUF dog +170 43%
32-42
80%
4-1
70%
7-3
53%
19-17
60%
3-2
-2.20u
20-31
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown (closing)
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 1.5
 DK 1.5 o-160/u+124 FD 1.5 o-164/u+128 TBL 48%
36-39
80%
4-1
70%
7-3
55%
21-17
80%
4-1
48%
36-39
 1.83 1.09 / 0.73
BUF 62%
46-28
100%
5-0
70%
7-3
58%
21-15
80%
4-1
62%
46-28
 1.99 1.14 / 0.85
2nd Period
over 1.5
 DK 2.5 o+150/u-195 FD 2.5 o+144/u-182 TBL 65%
49-26
80%
4-1
70%
7-3
66%
25-13
40%
2-3
57%
43-32
 2.17 1.23 / 0.95
BUF 74%
55-19
100%
5-0
80%
8-2
72%
26-10
40%
2-3
65%
48-26
 2.34 1.04 / 1.30
3rd Period
over 1.5
 FD 2.5 o+140/u-180 TBL 67%
50-25
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
61%
23-15
20%
1-4
37%
25-43
 2.08 1.19 / 0.89
BUF 68%
50-24
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
67%
24-12
20%
1-4
50%
33-33
 2.36 1.04 / 1.32
Team Comparison '24-25
TBLBUF
Record (W-L-OTL)47-27-836-39-7
Points %62.2%48.2%
Goals for / game3.593.28
Goals against / game2.673.52
Shots for / game28.527.8
Shots against / game28.228.9
Power play %25.9%18.8%
Penalty kill %81.6%76.3%
Faceoff %50.1%47.7%
1st period GF / GA1.11 / 0.721.12 / 0.83
2nd period GF / GA1.22 / 0.941.02 / 1.30
3rd period GF / GA1.18 / 0.911.05 / 1.30
Avg game total6.266.80
Starting Goalies from the box score
36 saves on 38 shots · 2 GA · OTL
22 saves on 24 shots · 2 GA · W
P1P2P3OTSOGPP
TBL0200240/3
BUF0110381/3
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line
TBLPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Nikita Kucherov G 0.5
o+135
 41% 50% 0%0/5 0 U
Jake Guentzel G 0.5
o+145
 39% 50% 25%1/4 0 U
Brayden Point G 0.5
o+140
 46% 40% 20%1/5 1 O
Anthony Cirelli G 0.5
o+300
 32% 40% 0%0/5 0 U
Brandon Hagel G 0.5
o+165
 37% 40% 20%1/5 0 U
Victor Hedman G 0.5
o+475
 17% 30% 0%0/5 0 U
Nick Paul G 0.5
o+300
 30% 30% 40%2/5 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand G 0.5
o+350
 23% 20% 40%2/5 0 U
Ryan McDonagh G 0.5
o+1000
 4% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Nick Perbix G 0.5
o+1500
 8% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Gage Goncalves G 0.5
o+600
 9% 10% 0%0/1 1 O
Luke Glendening G 0.5
o+900
 5% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Yanni Gourde G 0.5
o+475
 12% 0% 33%1/3 0 U
Zemgus Girgensons G 0.5
o+700
 3% 0% 0%0/1 0 U
Erik Cernak G 0.5
o+1200
 4% 0% 25%1/4 0 U
J.J. Moser G 0.5
o+1100
 4% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Emil Lilleberg G 0.5
o+1600
 0% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Brandon Hagel PTS 0.5
o-200 / u+150
 71% 80% 60%3/5 0 U
Jake Guentzel PTS 0.5
o-225 / u+165
 64% 60% 75%3/4 0 U
Brayden Point PTS 0.5
o-220 / u+165
 71% 60% 60%3/5 1 O
Victor Hedman PTS 0.5
o-140 / u+105
 54% 50% 20%1/5 0 U
Nikita Kucherov PTS 1.5
o+110 / u-145
 42% 50% 20%1/5 1 U
Yanni Gourde PTS 0.5
o+160 / u-220
 44% 50% 67%2/3 1 O
Anthony Cirelli PTS 0.5
o+120 / u-165
 48% 50% 60%3/5 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand PTS 0.5
o+140 / u-190
 45% 40% 80%4/5 1 O
Nick Paul PTS 0.5
o+130 / u-175
 49% 40% 60%3/5 0 U
Nikita Kucherov A 0.5
o-210 / u+160
 66% 80% 60%3/5 1 O
Brandon Hagel A 0.5
o+105 / u-135
 51% 60% 40%2/5 0 U
Yanni Gourde A 0.5
o+250 / u-350
 36% 50% 33%1/3 1 O
Victor Hedman A 0.5
o-105 / u-125
 46% 40% 20%1/5 0 U
Jake Guentzel A 0.5
o+105 / u-135
 39% 40% 50%2/4 0 U
Brayden Point A 0.5
o+110 / u-145
 37% 30% 40%2/5 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand A 0.5
o+250 / u-350
 29% 20% 40%2/5 1 O
Nick Paul A 0.5
o+260 / u-375
 23% 20% 60%3/5 0 U
Anthony Cirelli A 0.5
o+230 / u-325
 29% 20% 60%3/5 0 U
Jake Guentzel SOG 2.5
o-115 / u-115
 46% 80% 50%2/4 4 O
Nikita Kucherov SOG 2.5
o-180 / u+135
 70% 70% 20%1/5 3 O
Nick Paul SOG 1.5
o-125 / u-105
 54% 60% 40%2/5 2 O
Anthony Cirelli SOG 1.5
o-120 / u-110
 66% 60% 60%3/5 0 U
Brayden Point SOG 2.5
o+110 / u-145
 47% 50% 40%2/5 2 U
Brandon Hagel SOG 2.5
o+100 / u-135
 52% 50% 20%1/5 2 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand SOG 1.5
o+105 / u-140
 64% 40% 100%5/5 3 O
Victor Hedman SOG 2.5
o+140 / u-190
 40% 20% 40%2/5 4 O
Jonas Johansson SV 23.5
o-110 / u-120
 67% 60% 100%2/2 36 O
BUFPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Alex Tuch G 0.5
o+195
 37% 60% 40%2/5 0 U
Ryan McLeod G 0.5
o+325
 23% 50% 0%0/3 0 U
Tage Thompson G 0.5
o+130
 47% 40% 40%2/5 1 O
Peyton Krebs G 0.5
o+475
 12% 40% 20%1/5 0 U
JJ Peterka G 0.5
o+180
 28% 40% 20%1/5 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin G 0.5
o+375
 20% 30% 40%2/5 0 U
Jack Quinn G 0.5
o+325
 17% 30% 0%0/3 0 U
Jason Zucker G 0.5
o+300
 25% 10% 0%0/2 1 O
Sam Lafferty G 0.5
o+750
 6% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Mattias Samuelsson G 0.5
o+1200
 7% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Jacob Bernard-Docker G 0.5
o+1500
 6% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Owen Power G 0.5
o+800
 10% 10% 0%0/5 0 U
Jiri Kulich G 0.5
o+325
 20% 10% 0%0/1 0 U
Zach Benson G 0.5
o+400
 15% 10% 20%1/5 0 U
Connor Clifton G 0.5
o+1300
 0% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Beck Malenstyn G 0.5
o+900
 6% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Bowen Byram G 0.5
o+900
 8% 0% 25%1/4 0 U
Ryan McLeod PTS 0.5
o+120 / u-165
 48% 80% 33%1/3 0 U
JJ Peterka PTS 0.5
o-160 / u+120
 62% 70% 40%2/5 0 U
Alex Tuch PTS 0.5
o-145 / u+110
 57% 60% 60%3/5 1 O
Tage Thompson PTS 0.5
o-175 / u+130
 66% 60% 40%2/5 1 O
Rasmus Dahlin PTS 0.5
o-125 / u-105
 60% 60% 80%4/5 1 O
Jack Quinn PTS 0.5
o+145 / u-195
 36% 60% 33%1/3 0 U
Jason Zucker PTS 0.5
o+115 / u-155
 54% 40% 50%1/2 1 O
Jack Quinn A 0.5
o+275 / u-400
 26% 50% 33%1/3 0 U
Ryan McLeod A 0.5
o+210 / u-300
 30% 40% 33%1/3 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin A 0.5
o+115 / u-155
 51% 40% 80%4/5 1 O
JJ Peterka A 0.5
o+135 / u-180
 46% 40% 40%2/5 0 U
Jason Zucker A 0.5
o+220 / u-300
 37% 30% 50%1/2 0 U
Alex Tuch A 0.5
o+145 / u-200
 32% 30% 20%1/5 1 O
Tage Thompson A 0.5
o+160 / u-220
 35% 30% 0%0/5 0 U
Tage Thompson SOG 2.5
o-160 / u+120
 57% 70% 60%3/5 4 O
Jiri Kulich SOG 1.5
o-135 / u+100
 72% 70% 100%1/1 2 O
Alex Tuch SOG 1.5
o-195 / u+145
 76% 60% 80%4/5 4 O
Rasmus Dahlin SOG 2.5
o+125 / u-170
 49% 60% 60%3/5 2 U
Jason Zucker SOG 1.5
o-115 / u-115
 54% 40% 100%2/2 2 O
Jack Quinn SOG 1.5
o-110 / u-120
 50% 40% 67%2/3 3 O
JJ Peterka SOG 2.5
o+125 / u-170
 35% 10% 20%1/5 6 O
James Reimer SV 24.5
o-120 / u-110
 69% 70% — 22 U

Open in Prop Finder →

Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Mar 6, 2025 at TBL BUF 5–6 3–22–30–1 11 6.5 O TBL
Apr 15, 2024 at TBL BUF 4–2 1–02–11–1 6 — BUF
Feb 29, 2024 at TBL BUF 3–2 OT 1–10–11–0 5 — BUF
Jan 20, 2024 at BUF BUF 1–3 0–21–00–1 4 — TBL
Oct 17, 2023 at BUF BUF 3–2 OT 2–00–10–1 5 — BUF
Mar 4, 2023 at BUF BUF 5–3 1–13–01–2 8 — BUF
Feb 23, 2023 at TBL BUF 6–5 OT 1–13–11–3 11 — BUF
Nov 28, 2022 at BUF BUF 5–6 OT 2–21–12–2 11 — TBL
Nov 5, 2022 at TBL BUF 3–5 1–11–11–3 8 — TBL
Apr 10, 2022 at TBL BUF 0–5 0–20–20–1 5 — TBL