← Stats / BUF @ TBL

BUF @ TBL

Saturday, February 28, 2026 · 6:00 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's most recent starter as the probable starter (confirmed starters are not published in advance). Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Buffalo Sabres
50-23-9 · Away
6 – 2
FINAL
Tampa Bay Lightning
50-26-6 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock closing line
Moneyline
BUF +195 · TBL -260
Puck Line
BUF +1.5 (-120) · TBL -1.5 (+100)
Total
O 6.5 (-105) · U (-115)

Graded: total 8 → OVER W · TBL -1.5 L

Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Game Total
Over 6.5
 BUFo6.5 48%
28-31
60%
3-2
40%
4-6
45%
14-17
75%
3-1
48%
28-30
TBLo6.5 44%
25-32
80%
4-1
50%
5-5
43%
12-16
75%
3-1
53%
30-27
Puck Line
cover %
 BUF+1.5 71%
42-17
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
68%
21-10
75%
3-1
+8.68u
34-24
TBL-1.5 46%
26-31
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
39%
11-17
25%
1-3
+4.97u
30-27
Moneyline
win %
 BUF dog +195 58%
34-25
60%
3-2
70%
7-3
55%
17-14
25%
1-3
+6.86u
18-15
TBL fav -260 67%
38-19
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
68%
19-9
75%
3-1
+2.90u
30-15
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown (closing)
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 0.5
 DK 1.5 o-140/u+110 FD 1.5 o-132/u+104 BUF 93%
55-4
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
94%
29-2
75%
3-1
59%
35-24
 2.00 1.00 / 1.00
TBL 88%
50-7
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
82%
23-5
75%
3-1
56%
32-25
 2.04 1.14 / 0.89
2nd Period
over 0.5
 DK 1.5 o-195/u+150 FD 1.5 o-190/u+148 BUF 90%
53-6
80%
4-1
90%
9-1
87%
27-4
75%
3-1
53%
31-28
 2.02 1.19 / 0.83
TBL 86%
49-8
80%
4-1
90%
9-1
82%
23-5
75%
3-1
51%
29-28
 1.89 1.16 / 0.74
3rd Period
over 0.5
 FD 2.5 o+122/u-156 BUF 88%
52-7
100%
5-0
100%
10-0
90%
28-3
100%
4-0
44%
25-32
 2.20 1.10 / 1.10
TBL 91%
52-5
100%
5-0
90%
9-1
93%
26-2
100%
4-0
44%
25-32
 2.05 1.18 / 0.88
Team Comparison '25-26
BUFTBL
Record (W-L-OTL)50-23-950-26-6
Points %66.5%64.6%
Goals for / game3.513.54
Goals against / game2.942.82
Shots for / game28.128.1
Shots against / game29.126.7
Power play %19.5%20.7%
Penalty kill %81.9%82.6%
Faceoff %45.9%47.3%
1st period GF / GA1.02 / 0.940.96 / 0.93
2nd period GF / GA1.16 / 0.881.22 / 0.84
3rd period GF / GA1.23 / 1.011.23 / 0.98
Avg game total6.456.35
Starting Goalies from the box score
36 saves on 38 shots · 2 GA · W
9 saves on 14 shots · 5 GA · L
P1P2P3OTSOGPP
BUF4110351/5
TBL0110380/3
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line
BUFPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Tage Thompson G 0.5
o+130
 46% 50% 50%2/4 1 O
Jason Zucker G 0.5
o+325
 33% 40% 33%1/3 0 U
Alex Tuch G 0.5
o+210
 36% 40% 50%2/4 1 O
Peyton Krebs G 0.5
o+550
 15% 40% 25%1/4 0 U
Josh Doan G 0.5
o+300
 25% 30% 67%2/3 0 U
Beck Malenstyn G 0.5
o+900
 9% 20% 0%0/4 0 U
Mattias Samuelsson G 0.5
o+800
 16% 20% 25%1/4 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin G 0.5
o+425
 15% 20% 25%1/4 1 O
Zach Benson G 0.5
o+375
 17% 20% 0%0/3 0 U
Josh Norris G 0.5
o+350
 24% 10% 100%1/1 2 O
Jack Quinn G 0.5
o+325
 17% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Owen Power G 0.5
o+800
 7% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Noah Ostlund G 0.5
o+500
 17% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Ryan McLeod G 0.5
o+425
 17% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Michael Kesselring G 0.5
o+1500
 0% 0% 0%0/2 0 U
Bowen Byram G 0.5
o+850
 15% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Tyson Kozak G 0.5
o+900
 5% 0% 0%0/1 0 U
Zach Metsa G 0.5
o+2500
 4% 0% 0%0/1 1 O
Tage Thompson PTS 0.5
o-200 / u+145
 70% 90% 100%4/4 1 O
Ryan McLeod PTS 0.5
o+120 / u-165
 54% 80% 50%2/4 0 U
Josh Norris PTS 0.5
o+145 / u-195
 71% 70% 100%1/1 2 O
Rasmus Dahlin PTS 0.5
o-140 / u+105
 60% 70% 100%4/4 3 O
Jack Quinn PTS 0.5
o+135 / u-180
 46% 70% 50%2/4 1 O
Alex Tuch PTS 0.5
o-105 / u-125
 64% 60% 75%3/4 1 O
Mattias Samuelsson PTS 0.5
o+210 / u-300
 42% 50% 25%1/4 0 U
Bowen Byram PTS 0.5
o+200 / u-275
 42% 50% 0%0/4 1 O
Zach Benson PTS 0.5
o+140 / u-190
 48% 50% 67%2/3 1 O
Jason Zucker PTS 0.5
o+135 / u-180
 53% 40% 33%1/3 0 U
Josh Doan PTS 0.5
o+125 / u-165
 48% 30% 67%2/3 1 O
Ryan McLeod A 0.5
o+185 / u-250
 44% 80% 50%2/4 0 U
Tage Thompson A 0.5
o+135 / u-180
 44% 60% 50%2/4 0 U
Josh Norris A 0.5
o+260 / u-375
 52% 60% 0%0/1 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin A 0.5
o-105 / u-130
 53% 60% 100%4/4 2 O
Jack Quinn A 0.5
o+250 / u-375
 36% 60% 50%2/4 1 O
Bowen Byram A 0.5
o+260 / u-375
 32% 50% 0%0/4 1 O
Alex Tuch A 0.5
o+210 / u-300
 38% 30% 25%1/4 0 U
Mattias Samuelsson A 0.5
o+275 / u-425
 32% 30% 0%0/4 0 U
Zach Benson A 0.5
o+240 / u-350
 31% 30% 67%2/3 1 O
Josh Doan A 0.5
o+240 / u-350
 29% 10% 0%0/3 1 O
Jason Zucker A 0.5
o+250 / u-375
 28% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Jack Quinn SOG 1.5
o-185 / u+135
 68% 80% 50%2/4 2 O
Jason Zucker SOG 1.5
o-140 / u+105
 55% 60% 67%2/3 1 U
Zach Benson SOG 1.5
o-130 / u-105
 55% 60% 67%2/3 0 U
Tage Thompson SOG 3.5
o+105 / u-135
 49% 50% 75%3/4 6 O
Rasmus Dahlin SOG 2.5
o+100 / u-130
 51% 40% 75%3/4 2 U
Josh Doan SOG 1.5
o-140 / u+105
 54% 40% 33%1/3 2 O
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen SV 26.5
o-125 / u-105
 48% 80% 0%0/1 36 O
TBLPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Nikita Kucherov G 0.5
o+105
 49% 70% 50%2/4 0 U
Brayden Point G 0.5
o+145
 31% 60% 33%1/3 0 U
Darren Raddysh G 0.5
o+300
 28% 50% 50%2/4 0 U
Brandon Hagel G 0.5
o+150
 42% 40% 0%0/4 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand G 0.5
o+325
 16% 30% 60%3/5 0 U
Anthony Cirelli G 0.5
o+275
 27% 30% 0%0/3 0 U
Ryan McDonagh G 0.5
o+1200
 17% 10% 25%1/4 0 U
Yanni Gourde G 0.5
o+475
 11% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Zemgus Girgensons G 0.5
o+525
 12% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Erik Cernak G 0.5
o+1200
 3% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Pontus Holmberg G 0.5
o+475
 18% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Gage Goncalves G 0.5
o+450
 11% 10% 25%1/4 0 U
Victor Hedman G 0.5
o+900
 0% 0% 0%0/4 1 O
Charle-Edouard D'Astous G 0.5
o+1100
 7% 0% — 0 U
J.J. Moser G 0.5
o+900
 9% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Brayden Point PTS 0.5
o-210 / u+155
 59% 90% 67%2/3 0 U
Nikita Kucherov PTS 1.5
o-130 / u+100
 60% 70% 75%3/4 0 U
Darren Raddysh PTS 0.5
o-170 / u+130
 59% 70% 50%2/4 1 O
Brandon Hagel PTS 0.5
o-190 / u+140
 60% 70% 75%3/4 0 U
Anthony Cirelli PTS 0.5
o+110 / u-150
 47% 50% 33%1/3 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand PTS 0.5
o+145 / u-190
 37% 30% 100%5/5 1 O
Nikita Kucherov A 1.5
o+165 / u-220
 36% 60% 50%2/4 0 U
Brayden Point A 0.5
o+115 / u-150
 44% 60% 33%1/3 0 U
Darren Raddysh A 0.5
o-110 / u-120
 47% 50% 50%2/4 1 O
Brandon Hagel A 0.5
o+125 / u-165
 40% 50% 75%3/4 0 U
Anthony Cirelli A 0.5
o+220 / u-300
 33% 40% 33%1/3 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand A 0.5
o+275 / u-400
 25% 10% 40%2/5 1 O
Darren Raddysh SOG 2.5
o-155 / u+115
 53% 80% 50%2/4 3 O
Oliver Bjorkstrand SOG 1.5
o-120 / u-110
 46% 60% 100%5/5 4 O
Anthony Cirelli SOG 1.5
o-135 / u+105
 49% 50% 67%2/3 1 U
Brandon Hagel SOG 3.5
o+130 / u-175
 40% 50% 25%1/4 8 O
Nikita Kucherov SOG 3.5
o-105 / u-130
 32% 30% 50%2/4 4 O
Brayden Point SOG 2.5
o-135 / u+100
 39% 30% 0%0/3 0 U
Andrei Vasilevskiy SV 23.5
o-105 / u-125
 50% 40% 50%1/2 9 U

Open in Prop Finder →

Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Feb 3, 2026 at TBL TBL 4–3 OT 1–10–02–2 7 6.5 O TBL
Apr 13, 2025 at TBL TBL 7–4 1–24–02–2 11 6.5 O TBL
Apr 5, 2025 at BUF TBL 2–3 SO 0–02–10–1 5 6.5 U BUF
Mar 6, 2025 at TBL TBL 6–5 2–33–21–0 11 6.5 O TBL
Apr 15, 2024 at TBL TBL 2–4 0–11–21–1 6 — BUF
Feb 29, 2024 at TBL TBL 2–3 OT 1–11–00–1 5 — BUF
Jan 20, 2024 at BUF TBL 3–1 2–00–11–0 4 — TBL
Oct 17, 2023 at BUF TBL 2–3 OT 0–21–01–0 5 — BUF
Mar 4, 2023 at BUF TBL 3–5 1–10–32–1 8 — BUF
Feb 23, 2023 at TBL TBL 5–6 OT 1–11–33–1 11 — BUF