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BUF @ PIT

Thursday, March 5, 2026 · 6:00 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's most recent starter as the probable starter (confirmed starters are not published in advance). Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Buffalo Sabres
50-23-9 · Away
5 – 1
FINAL
Pittsburgh Penguins
41-25-16 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock closing line
Moneyline
BUF -115 · PIT -105
Puck Line
BUF +1.5 (-300) · PIT -1.5 (+200)
Total
O 6.5 (-105) · U (-115)

Graded: total 6 → OVER L · PIT -1.5 L

Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Game Total
Over 6.5
 BUFo6.5 48%
29-32
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
47%
15-17
80%
4-1
48%
29-31
PITo6.5 48%
29-31
20%
1-4
40%
4-6
53%
16-14
80%
4-1
51%
30-29
Puck Line
cover %
 BUF+1.5 72%
44-17
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
69%
22-10
40%
2-3
+8.51u
35-25
PIT-1.5 38%
23-37
60%
3-2
40%
4-6
37%
11-19
60%
3-2
+4.54u
36-23
Moneyline
win %
 BUF fav -115 59%
36-25
80%
4-1
70%
7-3
56%
18-14
20%
1-4
+1.79u
16-10
PIT dog -105 52%
31-29
60%
3-2
60%
6-4
50%
15-15
80%
4-1
+6.28u
18-16
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown (closing)
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 1.5 (DraftKings)
 DK 1.5 o-160/u+124 FD 1.5 o-146/u+114 BUF 59%
36-25
40%
2-3
60%
6-4
63%
20-12
60%
3-2
59%
36-25
 2.02 1.05 / 0.97
PIT 58%
35-25
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
63%
19-11
60%
3-2
58%
35-25
 1.88 1.12 / 0.77
2nd Period
over 1.5 (DraftKings)
 DK 1.5 o-195/u+150 FD 1.5 o-180/u+140 BUF 69%
42-19
40%
2-3
60%
6-4
69%
22-10
60%
3-2
54%
33-28
 2.05 1.20 / 0.85
PIT 62%
37-23
40%
2-3
60%
6-4
63%
19-11
60%
3-2
53%
32-28
 1.93 1.07 / 0.87
3rd Period
over 2.5 (FanDuel)
 FD 2.5 o+122/u-154 BUF 36%
22-39
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
34%
11-21
80%
4-1
42%
25-34
 2.16 1.08 / 1.08
PIT 33%
20-40
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
40%
12-18
80%
4-1
38%
23-37
 2.22 1.15 / 1.07
Team Comparison '25-26
BUFPIT
Record (W-L-OTL)50-23-941-25-16
Points %66.5%59.8%
Goals for / game3.513.57
Goals against / game2.943.27
Shots for / game28.128.6
Shots against / game29.127.4
Power play %19.5%24.1%
Penalty kill %81.9%81.4%
Faceoff %45.9%48.2%
1st period GF / GA1.02 / 0.941.13 / 0.83
2nd period GF / GA1.16 / 0.881.18 / 1.09
3rd period GF / GA1.23 / 1.011.17 / 1.16
Avg game total6.456.84
Starting Goalies from the box score
27 saves on 28 shots · 1 GA · W
21 saves on 25 shots · 4 GA · L
P1P2P3OTSOGPP
BUF1310261/6
PIT1000280/5
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line
BUFPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Tage Thompson G 0.5
o+115
 48% 60% 60%3/5 0 U
Alex Tuch G 0.5
o+185
 37% 40% 20%1/5 1 O
Jason Zucker G 0.5
o+275
 33% 30% 50%2/4 0 U
Peyton Krebs G 0.5
o+475
 15% 30% 20%1/5 0 U
Josh Doan G 0.5
o+275
 25% 30% 0%0/3 0 U
Josh Norris G 0.5
o+300
 26% 20% 0%0/2 1 O
Mattias Samuelsson G 0.5
o+750
 15% 20% 20%1/5 1 O
Rasmus Dahlin G 0.5
o+425
 16% 20% 0%0/5 0 U
Owen Power G 0.5
o+700
 8% 20% 20%1/5 1 O
Zach Benson G 0.5
o+450
 16% 20% 25%1/4 0 U
Beck Malenstyn G 0.5
o+850
 8% 10% 0%0/5 0 U
Jack Quinn G 0.5
o+300
 16% 10% 20%1/5 0 U
Noah Ostlund G 0.5
o+450
 16% 10% 0%0/2 0 U
Zach Metsa G 0.5
o+2000
 7% 10% — 0 U
Ryan McLeod G 0.5
o+375
 16% 0% 20%1/5 1 O
Michael Kesselring G 0.5
o+1400
 0% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Bowen Byram G 0.5
o+750
 15% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Josh Dunne G 0.5
o+800
 3% 0% 0%0/2 0 U
Tage Thompson PTS 0.5
o-250 / u+180
 71% 90% 80%4/5 1 O
Rasmus Dahlin PTS 0.5
o-170 / u+130
 61% 80% 40%2/5 0 U
Alex Tuch PTS 0.5
o-145 / u+110
 65% 70% 60%3/5 1 O
Josh Norris PTS 0.5
o+110 / u-150
 70% 70% 100%2/2 2 O
Ryan McLeod PTS 0.5
o-105 / u-125
 54% 70% 60%3/5 1 O
Bowen Byram PTS 0.5
o+160 / u-210
 43% 60% 80%4/5 1 O
Jack Quinn PTS 0.5
o+115 / u-150
 46% 60% 60%3/5 0 U
Josh Doan PTS 0.5
o+120 / u-165
 48% 40% 0%0/3 1 O
Owen Power PTS 0.5
o+185 / u-250
 32% 40% 40%2/5 2 O
Jason Zucker PTS 0.5
o+110 / u-145
 52% 30% 75%3/4 0 U
Mattias Samuelsson PTS 0.5
o+180 / u-250
 41% 30% 40%2/5 1 O
Rasmus Dahlin A 0.5
o-130 / u-105
 54% 80% 40%2/5 0 U
Ryan McLeod A 0.5
o+145 / u-195
 44% 70% 40%2/5 0 U
Bowen Byram A 0.5
o+200 / u-275
 33% 60% 80%4/5 1 O
Tage Thompson A 0.5
o+110 / u-150
 43% 50% 40%2/5 1 O
Josh Norris A 0.5
o+210 / u-300
 48% 50% 100%2/2 1 O
Jack Quinn A 0.5
o+210 / u-300
 36% 50% 60%3/5 0 U
Alex Tuch A 0.5
o+155 / u-210
 38% 40% 60%3/5 0 U
Josh Doan A 0.5
o+240 / u-350
 30% 20% 0%0/3 1 O
Owen Power A 0.5
o+250 / u-350
 23% 20% 20%1/5 1 O
Mattias Samuelsson A 0.5
o+240 / u-350
 31% 10% 20%1/5 0 U
Jason Zucker A 0.5
o+220 / u-300
 26% 0% 50%2/4 0 U
Jack Quinn SOG 1.5
o-200 / u+150
 69% 90% 60%3/5 2 O
Tage Thompson SOG 3.5
o+100 / u-130
 49% 60% 40%2/5 1 U
Jason Zucker SOG 1.5
o-145 / u+110
 55% 50% 50%2/4 1 U
Josh Doan SOG 1.5
o-170 / u+125
 54% 50% 33%1/3 3 O
Alex Tuch SOG 2.5
o+105 / u-140
 35% 40% 40%2/5 3 O
Rasmus Dahlin SOG 2.5
o+105 / u-140
 49% 30% 80%4/5 4 O
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen SV 26.5
o-125 / u-105
 50% 80% 33%1/3 27 O
PITPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Egor Chinakhov G 0.5
o+260
 26% 50% 67%2/3 0 U
Ben Kindel G 0.5
o+250
 21% 50% 100%1/1 0 U
Anthony Mantha G 0.5
o+260
 30% 40% 0%0/2 0 U
Bryan Rust G 0.5
o+170
 34% 30% 60%3/5 1 O
Rickard Rakell G 0.5
o+180
 28% 30% 67%2/3 0 U
Tommy Novak G 0.5
o+325
 20% 30% 75%3/4 0 U
Ryan Shea G 0.5
o+1200
 7% 20% 0%0/3 0 U
Justin Brazeau G 0.5
o+425
 26% 20% 25%1/4 0 U
Evgeni Malkin G 0.5
o+200
 27% 10% 25%1/4 0 U
Erik Karlsson G 0.5
o+450
 9% 10% 0%0/5 0 U
Connor Clifton G 0.5
o+1500
 7% 10% 0%0/1 0 U
Noel Acciari G 0.5
o+600
 11% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Connor Dewar G 0.5
o+500
 18% 10% 25%1/4 0 U
Blake Lizotte G 0.5
o+600
 14% 10% 33%1/3 0 U
Kris Letang G 0.5
o+800
 6% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Parker Wotherspoon G 0.5
o+1300
 5% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Samuel Girard G 0.5
o+1100
 7% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Avery Hayes G 0.5
o+525
 20% — 100%1/1 0 U
Anthony Mantha PTS 0.5
o-105 / u-125
 55% 80% 50%1/2 0 U
Evgeni Malkin PTS 0.5
o-195 / u+145
 73% 70% 50%2/4 0 U
Egor Chinakhov PTS 0.5
o+130 / u-175
 35% 70% 100%3/3 0 U
Bryan Rust PTS 0.5
o-170 / u+125
 59% 60% 60%3/5 1 O
Tommy Novak PTS 0.5
o+135 / u-180
 45% 60% 75%3/4 0 U
Kris Letang PTS 0.5
o+160 / u-220
 44% 50% 0%0/3 0 U
Erik Karlsson PTS 0.5
o-115 / u-115
 51% 50% 40%2/5 0 U
Ben Kindel PTS 0.5
o+125 / u-170
 35% 50% 100%1/1 1 O
Rickard Rakell PTS 0.5
o-160 / u+120
 51% 30% 100%3/3 0 U
Evgeni Malkin A 0.5
o-105 / u-125
 58% 60% 50%2/4 0 U
Kris Letang A 0.5
o+200 / u-275
 41% 50% 0%0/3 0 U
Anthony Mantha A 0.5
o+175 / u-240
 33% 50% 50%1/2 0 U
Erik Karlsson A 0.5
o+115 / u-155
 46% 40% 40%2/5 0 U
Bryan Rust A 0.5
o+130 / u-175
 38% 40% 40%2/5 0 U
Tommy Novak A 0.5
o+260 / u-375
 30% 30% 0%0/4 0 U
Egor Chinakhov A 0.5
o+300 / u-450
 14% 30% 67%2/3 0 U
Ben Kindel A 0.5
o+275 / u-425
 19% 20% 0%0/1 1 O
Rickard Rakell A 0.5
o+135 / u-185
 33% 10% 33%1/3 0 U
Egor Chinakhov SOG 2.5
o+125 / u-165
 31% 80% 33%1/3 1 U
Evgeni Malkin SOG 2.5
o-115 / u-115
 49% 60% 50%2/4 1 U
Anthony Mantha SOG 1.5
o-165 / u+125
 53% 60% 0%0/2 2 O
Erik Karlsson SOG 2.5
o+100 / u-130
 36% 50% 0%0/5 3 O
Rickard Rakell SOG 2.5
o-135 / u+100
 54% 50% 33%1/3 2 U
Tommy Novak SOG 1.5
o-130 / u-105
 43% 50% 50%2/4 1 U
Ben Kindel SOG 2.5
o+135 / u-180
 28% 50% 0%0/1 0 U
Kris Letang SOG 1.5
o-125 / u-105
 52% 40% 100%3/3 1 U
Bryan Rust SOG 2.5
o-120 / u-110
 40% 10% 40%2/5 5 O
Arturs Silovs SV 23.5
o-120 / u-110
 57% 50% 100%1/1 21 U
Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Feb 5, 2026 at BUF PIT 5–2 2–11–02–1 7 6.5 O PIT
Nov 26, 2025 at PIT PIT 4–2 1–00–03–2 6 6.5 U PIT
Mar 27, 2025 at BUF PIT 3–7 1–20–52–0 10 6.5 O BUF
Jan 17, 2025 at BUF PIT 5–2 0–13–02–1 7 6 O PIT
Oct 16, 2024 at PIT PIT 6–5 OT 1–32–02–2 11 6.5 O PIT
Jan 6, 2024 at PIT PIT 1–3 0–10–01–2 4 — BUF
Nov 24, 2023 at BUF PIT 2–3 1–01–00–3 5 — BUF
Nov 11, 2023 at PIT PIT 4–0 1–01–02–0 4 — PIT
Dec 10, 2022 at PIT PIT 3–1 2–00–01–1 4 — PIT
Dec 9, 2022 at BUF PIT 4–3 OT 0–01–22–1 7 — PIT