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TBL @ BUF

Monday, April 6, 2026 · 6:00 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's most recent starter as the probable starter (confirmed starters are not published in advance). Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Tampa Bay Lightning
50-26-6 · Away
2 – 4
FINAL
Buffalo Sabres
50-23-9 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock closing line
Moneyline
TBL -115 · BUF -105
Puck Line
TBL -1.5 (+180) · BUF +1.5 (-250)
Total
O 6.5 (-110) · U (-110)

Graded: total 6 → OVER L · BUF +1.5 W

Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Game Total
Over 6.5
 TBLo6.5 47%
36-40
20%
1-4
60%
6-4
51%
19-18
83%
5-1
54%
41-35
BUFo6.5 47%
36-41
60%
3-2
50%
5-5
50%
19-19
83%
5-1
47%
36-40
Puck Line
cover %
 TBL-1.5 46%
35-41
60%
3-2
60%
6-4
51%
19-18
17%
1-5
+6.36u
39-37
BUF+1.5 74%
57-20
40%
2-3
70%
7-3
79%
30-8
83%
5-1
+4.12u
41-35
Moneyline
win %
 TBL fav -115 63%
48-28
80%
4-1
70%
7-3
62%
23-14
50%
3-3
-0.54u
40-24
BUF dog -105 60%
46-31
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
63%
24-14
50%
3-3
+9.92u
21-16
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown (closing)
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 0.5
 DK 1.5 o-145/u+114 FD 1.5 o-148/u+116 TBL 86%
65-11
60%
3-2
80%
8-2
92%
34-3
83%
5-1
55%
42-34
 1.96 1.01 / 0.95
BUF 91%
70-7
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
92%
35-3
83%
5-1
56%
43-34
 1.95 1.00 / 0.95
2nd Period
over 0.5
 DK 1.5 o-195/u+150 FD 1.5 o-190/u+146 TBL 88%
67-9
100%
5-0
100%
10-0
89%
33-4
83%
5-1
58%
44-32
 2.07 1.25 / 0.82
BUF 91%
70-7
100%
5-0
90%
9-1
95%
36-2
83%
5-1
52%
40-37
 2.05 1.18 / 0.87
3rd Period
over 0.5
 FD 2.5 o+124/u-156 TBL 92%
70-6
100%
5-0
90%
9-1
92%
34-3
100%
6-0
46%
35-41
 2.20 1.26 / 0.93
BUF 88%
68-9
100%
5-0
100%
10-0
84%
32-6
100%
6-0
44%
33-42
 2.25 1.17 / 1.08
Team Comparison '25-26
TBLBUF
Record (W-L-OTL)50-26-650-23-9
Points %64.6%66.5%
Goals for / game3.543.51
Goals against / game2.822.94
Shots for / game28.128.1
Shots against / game26.729.1
Power play %20.7%19.5%
Penalty kill %82.6%81.9%
Faceoff %47.3%45.9%
1st period GF / GA0.96 / 0.931.02 / 0.94
2nd period GF / GA1.22 / 0.841.16 / 0.88
3rd period GF / GA1.23 / 0.981.23 / 1.01
Avg game total6.356.45
Starting Goalies from the box score
26 saves on 29 shots · 3 GA · L
23 saves on 25 shots · 2 GA · W
P1P2P3OTSOGPP
TBL1100251/5
BUF2110300/4
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line
TBLPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Jake Guentzel G 0.5
o+155
 40% 70% 50%3/6 1 O
Nikita Kucherov G 0.5
o+130
 47% 50% 50%3/6 1 O
Darren Raddysh G 0.5
o+350
 26% 40% 33%2/6 0 U
Corey Perry G 0.5
o+400
 21% 20% 25%1/4 0 U
Brayden Point G 0.5
o+200
 28% 20% 40%2/5 0 U
Charle-Edouard D'Astous G 0.5
o+900
 9% 20% 0%0/2 0 U
Pontus Holmberg G 0.5
o+525
 16% 20% 0%0/5 0 U
Ryan McDonagh G 0.5
o+1300
 14% 10% 17%1/6 0 U
Yanni Gourde G 0.5
o+500
 11% 10% 0%0/6 0 U
Zemgus Girgensons G 0.5
o+575
 12% 10% 17%1/6 0 U
Erik Cernak G 0.5
o+1300
 4% 10% 0%0/6 0 U
Emil Lilleberg G 0.5
o+1300
 7% 10% 25%1/4 0 U
Scott Sabourin G 0.5
o+1100
 5% 0% 0%0/2 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand G 0.5
o+350
 14% 0% 43%3/7 0 U
Nick Paul G 0.5
o+475
 13% 0% 33%1/3 0 U
Mitchell Chaffee G 0.5
o+650
 0% 0% 0%0/2 0 U
Gage Goncalves G 0.5
o+375
 13% 0% 20%1/5 0 U
J.J. Moser G 0.5
o+1100
 10% 0% 17%1/6 0 U
Jake Guentzel PTS 0.5
o-220 / u+165
 70% 90% 50%3/6 2 O
Charle-Edouard D'Astous PTS 0.5
o+200 / u-275
 36% 70% 0%0/2 0 U
Darren Raddysh PTS 0.5
o-135 / u+105
 57% 60% 67%4/6 2 O
Nikita Kucherov PTS 1.5
o+120 / u-160
 56% 40% 67%4/6 1 U
Corey Perry PTS 0.5
o+165 / u-225
 42% 30% 25%1/4 0 U
Brayden Point PTS 0.5
o-155 / u+115
 57% 30% 60%3/5 1 O
Nikita Kucherov A 0.5
o-180 / u+135
 66% 70% 83%5/6 0 U
Charle-Edouard D'Astous A 0.5
o+260 / u-375
 28% 60% 0%0/2 0 U
Jake Guentzel A 0.5
o+100 / u-130
 47% 50% 17%1/6 1 O
Darren Raddysh A 0.5
o+110 / u-145
 45% 40% 67%4/6 2 O
Corey Perry A 0.5
o+300 / u-425
 24% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Brayden Point A 0.5
o+130 / u-175
 40% 10% 20%1/5 1 O
Jake Guentzel SOG 2.5
o-135 / u+100
 47% 60% 67%4/6 6 O
Darren Raddysh SOG 2.5
o-120 / u-110
 55% 60% 67%4/6 4 O
Nikita Kucherov SOG 3.5
o+120 / u-160
 34% 50% 67%4/6 3 U
Brayden Point SOG 2.5
o+135 / u-180
 35% 40% 0%0/5 2 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand SOG 1.5
o+115 / u-155
 49% 30% 100%7/7 1 U
Charle-Edouard D'Astous SOG 1.5
o+130 / u-220
 28% 30% 0%0/2 3 O
Andrei Vasilevskiy SV 24.5
o-110 / u-120
 43% 30% 33%1/3 26 O
BUFPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Rasmus Dahlin G 0.5
o+350
 21% 50% 50%3/6 0 U
Tage Thompson G 0.5
o+130
 44% 40% 50%3/6 0 U
Zach Benson G 0.5
o+350
 17% 30% 0%0/5 0 U
Peyton Krebs G 0.5
o+400
 14% 20% 17%1/6 0 U
Jack Quinn G 0.5
o+230
 18% 20% 0%0/6 1 O
Josh Doan G 0.5
o+250
 25% 20% 60%3/5 0 U
Jason Zucker G 0.5
o+250
 31% 10% 40%2/5 1 O
Alex Tuch G 0.5
o+220
 35% 10% 67%4/6 1 O
Beck Malenstyn G 0.5
o+750
 9% 10% 0%0/6 0 U
Josh Norris G 0.5
o+300
 21% 10% 67%2/3 1 O
Mattias Samuelsson G 0.5
o+900
 15% 10% 17%1/6 0 U
Bowen Byram G 0.5
o+600
 13% 10% 0%0/6 0 U
Owen Power G 0.5
o+700
 11% 10% 0%0/5 0 U
Luke Schenn G 0.5
o+2000
 2% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Jordan Greenway G 0.5
o+700
 3% 0% 0%0/1 0 U
Logan Stanley G 0.5
o+1300
 13% 0% 50%1/2 0 U
Ryan McLeod G 0.5
o+450
 14% 0% 0%0/6 0 U
Tyson Kozak G 0.5
o+800
 5% 0% 0%0/2 DNP
Tage Thompson PTS 0.5
o-220 / u+160
 68% 60% 100%6/6 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin PTS 0.5
o-160 / u+120
 60% 60% 100%6/6 1 O
Zach Benson PTS 0.5
o+155 / u-210
 47% 50% 80%4/5 1 O
Alex Tuch PTS 0.5
o-115 / u-115
 64% 40% 83%5/6 1 O
Josh Norris PTS 0.5
o+120 / u-160
 56% 40% 67%2/3 1 O
Bowen Byram PTS 0.5
o+140 / u-190
 42% 40% 33%2/6 2 O
Jack Quinn PTS 0.5
o-125 / u-110
 46% 40% 50%3/6 1 O
Josh Doan PTS 0.5
o+115 / u-150
 46% 30% 80%4/5 1 O
Jason Zucker PTS 0.5
o+100 / u-135
 47% 20% 40%2/5 2 O
Ryan McLeod PTS 0.5
o+120 / u-160
 49% 10% 50%3/6 1 O
Owen Power PTS 0.5
o+230 / u-325
 32% 10% 20%1/5 0 U
Peyton Krebs A 0.5
o+250 / u-350
 31% 50% 33%2/6 0 U
Mattias Samuelsson A 0.5
o+300 / u-450
 31% 40% 0%0/6 0 U
Zach Benson A 0.5
o+300 / u-450
 33% 40% 80%4/5 1 O
Alex Tuch A 0.5
o+185 / u-260
 37% 30% 17%1/6 0 U
Tage Thompson A 0.5
o+115 / u-155
 40% 30% 50%3/6 0 U
Josh Norris A 0.5
o+225 / u-325
 41% 30% 0%0/3 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin A 0.5
o-110 / u-125
 51% 30% 100%6/6 1 O
Bowen Byram A 0.5
o+190 / u-260
 33% 30% 33%2/6 2 O
Jack Quinn A 0.5
o+160 / u-220
 35% 30% 50%3/6 0 U
Jason Zucker A 0.5
o+200 / u-275
 24% 10% 20%1/5 1 O
Ryan McLeod A 0.5
o+180 / u-250
 40% 10% 50%3/6 1 O
Josh Doan A 0.5
o+240 / u-350
 26% 10% 20%1/5 1 O
Owen Power A 0.5
o+325 / u-500
 24% 10% 20%1/5 0 U
Alex Tuch SOG 2.5
o+135 / u-185
 39% 60% 67%4/6 6 O
Rasmus Dahlin SOG 2.5
o+125 / u-165
 49% 60% 50%3/6 1 U
Jason Zucker SOG 1.5
o-165 / u+120
 53% 50% 60%3/5 4 O
Josh Norris SOG 1.5
o+110 / u-145
 51% 50% 67%2/3 2 O
Josh Doan SOG 1.5
o-135 / u+100
 57% 50% 60%3/5 0 U
Zach Benson SOG 1.5
o+115 / u-150
 50% 50% 40%2/5 3 O
Jack Quinn SOG 2.5
o+115 / u-150
 34% 40% 33%2/6 4 O
Tage Thompson SOG 3.5
o+125 / u-165
 47% 30% 67%4/6 1 U
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen SV 24.5
o-125 / u-105
 58% 70% 33%1/3 23 U

Open in Prop Finder →

Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Mar 8, 2026 at BUF BUF 8–7 1–03–44–3 15 6.5 O BUF
Feb 28, 2026 at TBL BUF 6–2 4–01–11–1 8 6.5 O BUF
Feb 3, 2026 at TBL BUF 3–4 OT 1–10–02–2 7 6.5 O TBL
Apr 13, 2025 at TBL BUF 4–7 2–10–42–2 11 6.5 O TBL
Apr 5, 2025 at BUF BUF 3–2 SO 0–01–21–0 5 6.5 U BUF
Mar 6, 2025 at TBL BUF 5–6 3–22–30–1 11 6.5 O TBL
Apr 15, 2024 at TBL BUF 4–2 1–02–11–1 6 — BUF
Feb 29, 2024 at TBL BUF 3–2 OT 1–10–11–0 5 — BUF
Jan 20, 2024 at BUF BUF 1–3 0–21–00–1 4 — TBL
Oct 17, 2023 at BUF BUF 3–2 OT 2–00–10–1 5 — BUF