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6:30 PM
EDM -140 15-3-3
PHI 5.5 6-10-6
7:00 PM
FLA 5.5 12-7-2
DAL -130 11-6-2
7:00 PM
CGY 6.5 9-10-1
ANA -150 10-9-1
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NSH -170 11-4-5
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← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-11-01
MacKenzie Weegar
 UTA @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 60.4% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-11-01
Mark Jankowski
 CAR vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.3% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Nick Schmaltz
 UTA @ PHI OVER 0.5 Lean -180 60.2% 60.2% 2 W +0.56
2026-11-01
Tye Kartye
 NYR vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 59.9% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-01
Owen Tippett
 PHI vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.6% 59.2% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-01
Aliaksei Protas
 WSH vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 59.6% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-01
Porter Martone
 PHI vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.5% 59.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Gabriel Vilardi
 WPG @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 59.5% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-11-01
Cole Hutson
 WSH vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 59.3% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Alex Killorn
 ANA vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 58.7% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-01
Joel Eriksson Ek
 MIN @ WSH OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.3% 57.2% 2 W +0.65
2026-11-01
Mikhail Sergachev
 UTA @ PHI OVER 0.5 Lean -160 58.3% 57.5% 1 W +0.63
2026-11-01
Vasily Podkolzin
 EDM @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 58.2% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-01
Mark Scheifele
 WPG @ CAR OVER 0.5 Lean -165 58.1% 58.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Connor McDavid
 EDM @ NYR UNDER 1.5 Lean -135 57.9% 53.5% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Maxim Shabanov
 MIN @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 57.8% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Gabe Perreault
 NYR vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 57.8% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-01
Cole Perfetti
 WPG @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Lean -135 57.6% 54.1% 0 W +0.74
2026-11-01
Pavel Dorofeyev
 NYR vs EDM OVER 0.5 Lean -145 57.5% 55.4% 1 W +0.69
2026-11-01
Kyle Connor
 WPG @ CAR OVER 0.5 Lean -165 57.5% 58.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Logan Cooley
 UTA @ PHI OVER 0.5 Lean -155 57.4% 56.7% 2 W +0.65
2026-11-01
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA vs OTT OVER 0.5 Lean -140 57.4% 54.5% 1 W +0.71
2026-11-01
Will Cuylle
 NYR vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 57.2% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-11-01
Drake Batherson
 OTT @ ANA OVER 0.5 Lean -160 57.2% 57.5% 1 W +0.63
2026-11-01
Claude Giroux
 OTT @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 57.0% 55.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Jamie Drysdale
 PHI vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 56.8% 55.4% 3 L -1.00
2026-11-01
Ryan Leonard
 WSH vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 56.4% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-10-31
Zayne Parekh
 CGY @ COL UNDER 0.5 Top -260 71.4% 67.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Troy Stecher
 TOR @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Top -325 71.0% 71.3% 0 W +0.31
2026-10-31
Logan Stanley
 NYI vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Top -275 70.3% 68.8% 0 W +0.36
2026-10-31
Mikko Rantanen
 DAL vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 Top -260 70.0% 67.7% 1 W +0.39
2026-10-31
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 Top -250 69.8% 66.7% 1 W +0.40
2026-10-31
Damon Severson
 CBJ @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -230 69.6% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Brandon Hagel
 TBL @ NSH OVER 0.5 Top -240 68.6% 66.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Liam Ohgren
 VAN vs TOR UNDER 0.5 Top -275 68.4% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-10-31
Jake McCabe
 TOR @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Top -260 68.1% 67.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Mikael Backlund
 CGY @ COL UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.9% 66.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Ryan Shea
 EDM @ NYI UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.8% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-31
Jonatan Berggren
 STL @ DET UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.8% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-10-31
Oliver Kapanen
 MTL vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.3% 66.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Josh Anderson
 MTL vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Top -275 66.8% 68.4% 3 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Matthew Wood
 NSH vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.7% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-31
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
 TOR @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Top -260 66.7% 67.3% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-31
Kris Letang
 PIT @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Top -250 66.7% 67.1% 0 W +0.40
2026-10-31
Tim Stützle
 OTT @ SJS UNDER 1.5 Top -220 66.4% 64.6% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Cole Caufield
 MTL vs PIT UNDER 1.5 Top -225 66.4% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-31
Evan Bouchard
 EDM @ NYI OVER 0.5 Top -240 66.4% 66.0% 1 W +0.42
2026-10-31
Jake Guentzel
 TBL @ NSH OVER 0.5 Top -210 66.2% 63.3% 1 W +0.48
2026-10-31
Drew Doughty
 LAK vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 66.0% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-31
Cale Makar
 COL vs CGY UNDER 1.5 Strong -240 65.8% 66.0% 4 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Anton Frondell
 CHI @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.7% 64.1% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Cam Fowler
 STL @ DET UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.6% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-31
Marat Khusnutdinov
 BOS vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.4% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-31
Andrei Kuzmenko
 PIT @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Strong -260 65.4% 64.4% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-31
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL vs PIT OVER 0.5 Strong -220 65.1% 64.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
 NYI vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.1% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-31
Mattias Samuelsson
 BUF @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.0% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Frank Nazar
 CHI @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.8% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-31
Chris Kreider
 MTL vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Strong -250 64.6% 66.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Macklin Celebrini
 SJS vs OTT UNDER 1.5 Strong -200 64.6% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-31
Phillip Danault
 MTL vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 64.4% 66.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Ville Koivunen
 PIT @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.3% 62.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-31
Victor Eklund
 NYI vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.2% 62.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-31
Hampus Lindholm
 BOS vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.2% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-31
Collin Graf
 SJS vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.2% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-31
Morgan Frost
 CGY @ COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 64.1% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-31
Sam Malinski
 COL vs CGY UNDER 0.5 Strong -250 64.1% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-10-31
William Nylander
 TOR @ VAN UNDER 1.5 Strong -200 63.9% 62.5% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Valeri Nichushkin
 CBJ @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.8% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-31
Tony DeAngelo
 NYI vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 63.8% 63.1% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-31
Linus Karlsson
 VAN vs TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 63.7% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-31
Justin Faulk
 DET vs STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.7% 62.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Artemi Panarin
 LAK vs BUF OVER 0.5 Strong -200 63.7% 62.0% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Peyton Krebs
 BUF @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.5% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-31
Tage Thompson
 BUF @ LAK OVER 0.5 Strong -200 63.4% 62.5% 2 W +0.50
2026-10-31
Sam Steel
 DAL vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 63.4% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-10-31
Jacob Trouba
 SJS vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.3% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
 DET vs STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.1% 61.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-31
Brandt Clarke
 LAK vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 63.1% 61.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL vs CBJ OVER 0.5 Strong -195 62.9% 61.8% 1 W +0.51
2026-10-31
Corey Perry
 LAK vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 62.9% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Michael Amadio
 OTT @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.9% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-31
Josh Norris
 BUF @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.8% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-31
Ryan McLeod
 BUF @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.8% 62.0% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-31
Lane Hutson
 MTL vs PIT OVER 0.5 Strong -195 62.6% 61.8% 2 W +0.51
2026-10-31
Bo Horvat
 NYI vs EDM OVER 0.5 Strong -190 62.4% 61.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Alex DeBrincat
 DET vs STL OVER 0.5 Strong -195 62.3% 61.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Owen Power
 BUF @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.3% 62.0% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-31
Michael Misa
 SJS vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 62.1% 61.6% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Jason Zucker
 BUF @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 62.1% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-10-31
Ridly Greig
 OTT @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.1% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Erik Gustafsson
 LAK vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 62.0% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-31
Matvei Gridin
 CGY @ COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 62.0% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-31
Andrew Copp
 DET vs STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 62.0% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-31
Noah Dobson
 MTL vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 61.8% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-31
Pavel Zacha
 BOS vs CHI OVER 0.5 Strong -170 61.6% 59.2% 1 W +0.59
2026-10-31
Mavrik Bourque
 NSH vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.5% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-31
Matthew Schaefer
 NYI vs EDM OVER 0.5 Strong -190 61.4% 61.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Connor McMichael
 STL @ DET UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 61.3% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-10-31
Brayden Point
 TBL @ NSH OVER 0.5 Strong -185 61.3% 60.4% 1 W +0.54
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