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← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-11-12
Neal Pionk
 WPG @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 65.6% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-12
Nick Suzuki
 MTL @ BOS OVER 0.5 Strong -210 65.6% 63.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
MacKenzie Weegar
 UTA vs STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 65.5% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-12
Corey Perry
 LAK vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -260 65.4% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-12
Jaden Schwartz
 COL @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 65.4% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-12
Ryan Donato
 CHI vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 65.2% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Tage Thompson
 BUF @ CHI OVER 0.5 Strong -230 65.1% 65.3% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-12
Brady Tkachuk
 FLA vs DET OVER 0.5 Strong -230 65.1% 65.3% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-12
Anders Lee
 UTA vs STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 65.0% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-12
Mattias Samuelsson
 BUF @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.9% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-12
Anthony Duclair
 NYI @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 64.7% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-12
Aaron Ekblad
 FLA vs DET UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.6% 64.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Robert Thomas
 STL @ UTA OVER 0.5 Strong -195 64.5% 61.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Dmitri Voronkov
 CBJ vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 64.2% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-12
Eetu Luostarinen
 FLA vs DET UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 64.1% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-12
Martin Necas
 COL @ OTT OVER 0.5 Strong -220 64.0% 61.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Ridly Greig
 OTT vs COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.9% 63.8% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-12
Sam Reinhart
 FLA vs DET OVER 0.5 Strong -200 63.7% 62.0% 1 W +0.50
2026-11-12
David Pastrnak
 BOS vs MTL UNDER 1.5 Strong -200 63.7% 62.0% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-12
Brandon Montour
 SEA vs CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 63.6% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-12
Jonatan Berggren
 STL @ UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 63.5% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-12
Alex Newhook
 MTL @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 63.5% 66.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Jesper Bratt
 NJD vs WSH OVER 0.5 Strong -190 63.4% 61.6% 1 W +0.53
2026-11-12
Jake Guentzel
 TBL @ CBJ OVER 0.5 Strong -210 63.3% 63.3% 2 W +0.48
2026-11-12
Mathieu Olivier
 CBJ vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -250 63.3% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-12
Cole Sillinger
 CBJ vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 63.2% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-12
Gavin McKenna
 TOR vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.1% 63.8% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-12
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ SEA OVER 0.5 Strong -195 63.1% 61.8% 1 W +0.51
2026-11-12
Nathan MacKinnon
 COL @ OTT UNDER 1.5 Strong -210 63.0% 62.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-12
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF @ CHI OVER 0.5 Strong -210 63.0% 63.3% 1 W +0.48
2026-11-12
Peyton Krebs
 BUF @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.0% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-12
William Nylander
 TOR vs MIN OVER 0.5 Strong -195 62.9% 60.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT vs COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.7% 62.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Emil Heineman
 NYI @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.6% 62.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-12
Barrett Hayton
 UTA vs STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -165 62.6% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-11-12
Sam Rinzel
 CHI vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 62.5% 60.2% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Noah Dobson
 MTL @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 62.4% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-12
Joel Eriksson Ek
 MIN @ TOR OVER 0.5 Strong -180 62.4% 60.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Brandon Hagel
 TBL @ CBJ OVER 0.5 Strong -210 62.3% 62.9% 3 W +0.48
2026-11-12
Brandt Clarke
 LAK vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -275 62.0% 62.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Jackson Blake
 CAR @ SEA OVER 0.5 Strong -180 61.9% 60.2% 1 W +0.56
2026-11-12
Aliaksei Protas
 WSH @ NJD UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 61.8% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Victor Eklund
 NYI @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.6% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Sam O'Reilly
 TBL @ CBJ UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 61.6% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-12
T.J. Hughes
 COL @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 61.5% 61.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Adrian Kempe
 LAK vs NYI OVER 0.5 Strong -180 61.4% 60.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Jason Zucker
 BUF @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 61.4% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-12
Ivan Provorov
 CBJ vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 61.4% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-12
Ryan McLeod
 BUF @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -175 61.4% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-12
Cale Makar
 COL @ OTT OVER 0.5 Strong -180 61.3% 60.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Casey Mittelstadt
 BOS vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 61.3% 62.9% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Andrew Copp
 DET @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.3% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Ryan Hartman
 MIN @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 61.2% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Fraser Minten
 BOS vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 61.1% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-12
Nikolaj Ehlers
 CAR @ SEA OVER 0.5 Lean -175 60.9% 59.4% 2 W +0.57
2026-11-12
Gabriel Landeskog
 COL @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -210 60.9% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Charle-Edouard D'Astous
 TBL @ CBJ UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 60.8% 58.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Jack Hughes
 NJD vs WSH UNDER 1.5 Lean -180 60.8% 60.2% 1 W +0.56
2026-11-12
Connor Brown
 NJD vs WSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -210 60.5% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Brock Nelson
 COL @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -200 60.5% 62.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Cole Hutson
 WSH @ NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -220 60.5% 61.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Danila Yurov
 MIN @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -200 60.2% 62.0% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Evan Rodrigues
 NJD vs WSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -200 60.2% 62.5% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Zachary Bolduc
 MTL @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 60.1% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Jamie Benn
 DAL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.0% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-12
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ TOR UNDER 1.5 Lean -175 60.0% 59.4% 3 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Devon Toews
 COL @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 59.9% 60.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH @ NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -210 59.7% 62.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-12
Mark Scheifele
 WPG @ DAL OVER 0.5 Lean -165 59.6% 58.4% 3 W +0.61
2026-11-12
Alex DeBrincat
 DET @ FLA OVER 0.5 Lean -180 59.5% 60.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Kyle Connor
 WPG @ DAL OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.4% 58.6% 3 W +0.59
2026-11-12
Cole Caufield
 MTL @ BOS OVER 0.5 Lean -175 59.3% 59.4% 1 W +0.57
2026-11-12
Connor McMichael
 STL @ UTA UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.3% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-12
Tyler Seguin
 DAL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 59.3% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-12
Thomas Chabot
 OTT vs COL UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 58.9% 59.2% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-12
Josh Norris
 BUF @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 58.8% 56.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA vs DET OVER 0.5 Lean -165 58.8% 58.4% 3 W +0.61
2026-11-12
Josh Doan
 BUF @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 58.7% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-11-12
Jimmy Snuggerud
 STL @ UTA OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.7% 56.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Bobby Brink
 MIN @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 58.5% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-12
Pavel Zacha
 BOS vs MTL OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.5% 56.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Tom Wilson
 WSH @ NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 58.2% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-12
Bobby McMann
 SEA vs CAR UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 58.1% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-11-12
Matthew Schaefer
 NYI @ LAK OVER 0.5 Lean -165 58.1% 57.8% 1 W +0.61
2026-11-12
Lane Hutson
 MTL @ BOS OVER 0.5 Lean -150 57.9% 56.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Jack Quinn
 BUF @ CHI OVER 0.5 Lean -170 57.8% 59.2% 2 W +0.59
2026-11-12
Kevin Fiala
 LAK vs NYI OVER 0.5 Lean -155 57.8% 56.7% 1 W +0.65
2026-11-12
Owen Power
 BUF @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 57.7% 56.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Blake Coleman
 MIN @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 57.7% 61.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Lucas Raymond
 DET @ FLA OVER 0.5 Lean -160 57.3% 57.5% 1 W +0.63
2026-11-12
Cole Perfetti
 WPG @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 57.1% 55.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Adam Fantilli
 CBJ vs TBL OVER 0.5 Lean -145 56.9% 55.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Zach Benson
 BUF @ CHI OVER 0.5 Lean -165 56.9% 57.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Easton Cowan
 TOR vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 56.8% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-11-12
Roope Hintz
 DAL vs WPG OVER 0.5 Lean -145 56.6% 55.4% 2 W +0.69
2026-11-12
Bo Horvat
 NYI @ LAK OVER 0.5 Lean -150 56.6% 55.8% 1 W +0.67
2026-11-12
Seth Jones
 FLA vs DET OVER 0.5 Lean -145 56.3% 55.4% 1 W +0.69
2026-11-12
Anton Lundell
 FLA vs DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.2% 56.3% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-12
Nico Hischier
 NJD vs WSH OVER 0.5 Lean -130 56.0% 53.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Erik Cernak
 TBL @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Top -275 70.6% 68.8% 0 W +0.36
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