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← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-11-10
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ CBJ OVER 0.5 Top -250 67.0% 67.1% 1 W +0.40
2026-11-10
William Nylander
 TOR vs COL OVER 0.5 Top -230 66.9% 65.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Mark Scheifele
 WPG vs NJD OVER 0.5 Top -220 66.9% 64.1% 1 W +0.46
2026-11-10
Ryan Hartman
 MIN @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Top -300 66.5% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-11-10
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
 DET @ STL UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.0% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-10
Alexandre Texier
 MTL vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.5% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-10
Martin Necas
 COL @ TOR UNDER 1.5 Strong -225 65.3% 64.7% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-10
Danila Yurov
 MIN @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Strong -260 65.1% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-10
Justin Faulk
 DET @ STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.5% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-10
Jesper Bratt
 NJD @ WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -220 64.1% 62.3% 1 W +0.46
2026-11-10
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ MTL UNDER 1.5 Strong -210 63.9% 60.9% 1 W +0.48
2026-11-10
Shane Wright
 NSH @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -250 63.9% 67.1% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-10
Sam Malinski
 COL @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.9% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Evan Rodrigues
 NJD @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 63.9% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-10
Cam Fowler
 STL vs DET UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.8% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-10
Filip Forsberg
 NSH @ LAK OVER 0.5 Strong -190 63.6% 61.1% 2 W +0.53
2026-11-10
Alex Newhook
 MTL vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -250 63.3% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-10
Dawson Mercer
 WPG vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.9% 62.5% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Bobby Brink
 MIN @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 62.9% 64.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Adrian Kempe
 LAK vs NSH OVER 0.5 Strong -180 62.5% 60.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Robert Thomas
 STL vs DET OVER 0.5 Strong -190 62.4% 61.6% 2 W +0.53
2026-11-10
Cole Caufield
 MTL vs MIN OVER 0.5 Strong -190 62.4% 61.1% 1 W +0.53
2026-11-10
Drew Doughty
 LAK vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 62.3% 60.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-10
Blake Coleman
 MIN @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.3% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-10
Aliaksei Protas
 WSH @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.0% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Zach Werenski
 CBJ vs FLA OVER 0.5 Strong -185 61.1% 59.9% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Andrew Copp
 DET @ STL UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 61.0% 59.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Corey Perry
 LAK vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -210 61.0% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-10
Roman Josi
 NSH @ LAK OVER 0.5 Lean -170 61.0% 58.6% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT vs WSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 60.8% 60.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-10
Cole Hutson
 WSH @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -200 60.7% 62.0% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Sean Monahan
 CBJ vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 60.5% 57.8% 0 W +0.61
2026-11-10
Zachary Bolduc
 MTL vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 60.2% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-10
Connor McMichael
 STL vs DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 60.1% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-10
Noah Dobson
 MTL vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.0% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-10
Brady Tkachuk
 FLA @ CBJ OVER 0.5 Lean -185 59.9% 60.9% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Sam Reinhart
 FLA @ CBJ OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.8% 58.6% 1 W +0.59
2026-11-10
Ryan O'Reilly
 NSH @ LAK OVER 0.5 Lean -160 59.8% 57.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Anton Lundell
 FLA @ CBJ UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.5% 59.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Nico Hischier
 NJD @ WPG OVER 0.5 Lean -160 59.4% 57.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Steven Stamkos
 NSH @ LAK OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.4% 58.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Alex DeBrincat
 DET @ STL OVER 0.5 Lean -175 58.9% 59.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Gavin McKenna
 TOR vs COL UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 58.9% 57.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Neal Pionk
 WPG vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 58.8% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-10
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 58.5% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Lucas Raymond
 DET @ STL OVER 0.5 Lean -170 58.4% 58.6% 2 W +0.59
2026-11-10
Trevor Moore
 LAK vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 58.4% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-10
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 58.0% 59.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-10
Thomas Chabot
 OTT vs WSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 57.9% 57.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Ryan Leonard
 WSH @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 57.9% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-10
Jack Hughes
 NJD @ WPG UNDER 1.5 Lean -165 57.5% 56.7% 1 W +0.61
2026-11-10
John Tavares
 TOR vs COL OVER 0.5 Lean -150 57.5% 55.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Valeri Nichushkin
 CBJ vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 57.2% 56.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Jaden Schwartz
 COL @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 57.2% 56.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Maxim Shabanov
 MIN @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 57.1% 56.4% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-10
Pavel Buchnevich
 STL vs DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 57.0% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-10
Gabriel Landeskog
 COL @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 56.9% 58.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Emmitt Finnie
 DET @ STL UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 56.8% 54.6% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-10
Alex Laferriere
 LAK vs NSH OVER 0.5 Lean -150 56.8% 55.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Dylan Strome
 WSH @ OTT OVER 0.5 Lean -150 56.7% 55.8% 1 W +0.67
2026-11-10
Lane Hutson
 MTL vs MIN OVER 0.5 Lean -140 56.6% 54.5% 1 W +0.71
2026-11-10
Joel Eriksson Ek
 MIN @ MTL OVER 0.5 Lean -150 56.6% 55.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL vs MIN OVER 0.5 Lean -145 56.3% 55.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Easton Cowan
 TOR vs COL UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.2% 55.8% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-09
Macklin Celebrini
 SJS vs NYI OVER 0.5 Top -250 70.0% 67.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-09
Logan Stanley
 NYI @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Top -275 68.9% 68.8% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-09
Ryan Shea
 EDM vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Top -275 68.3% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-09
Noah Cates
 PHI @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Top -240 68.2% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-09
Dmitry Orlov
 SJS vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Top -260 67.9% 67.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-09
Travis Sanheim
 PHI @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Top -260 67.8% 67.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-09
Ondrej Palat
 NYI @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Top -300 67.2% 66.5% 0 W +0.33
2026-11-09
Vladislav Gavrikov
 NYR @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.0% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-09
Evan Bouchard
 EDM vs NYR UNDER 1.5 Top -225 66.7% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-09
Liam Ohgren
 VAN vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.8% 63.8% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-09
Oliver Bonk
 PHI @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.7% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-09
Matthew Schaefer
 NYI @ SJS OVER 0.5 Strong -200 64.5% 62.5% 1 W +0.50
2026-11-09
Denver Barkey
 PHI @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.4% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-09
Zeev Buium
 VAN vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.4% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-09
Bo Horvat
 NYI @ SJS OVER 0.5 Strong -195 63.4% 61.8% 1 W +0.51
2026-11-09
Tyler Toffoli
 SJS vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 62.7% 66.0% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-09
Kiefer Sherwood
 SJS vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 62.6% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-09
Oliver Bjorkstrand
 NYR @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 62.4% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-09
Mattias Ekholm
 EDM vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 62.0% 61.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-09
Emil Heineman
 NYI @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 61.6% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-09
Anthony Duclair
 NYI @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.6% 61.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-09
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
 NYI @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 61.3% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-09
Will Cuylle
 NYR @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 61.2% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-09
Elias Pettersson
 VAN vs PHI OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.5% 58.6% 1 W +0.59
2026-11-09
Jacob Trouba
 SJS vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 59.2% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-09
Adam Fox
 NYR @ EDM OVER 0.5 Lean -150 59.1% 56.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-09
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR @ EDM OVER 0.5 Lean -160 59.1% 57.5% 1 W +0.63
2026-11-09
Tony DeAngelo
 NYI @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 58.7% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-09
Michael Misa
 SJS vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 58.5% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-09
Kasperi Kapanen
 EDM vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 58.0% 59.1% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-09
Owen Tippett
 PHI @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 57.8% 55.4% 0 W +0.69
2026-11-09
Brock Boeser
 VAN vs PHI OVER 0.5 Lean -140 57.5% 54.5% 1 W +0.71
2026-11-09
Tyson Foerster
 PHI @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -135 57.4% 54.1% 0 W +0.74
2026-11-09
Tye Kartye
 NYR @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 57.3% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-09
Marco Rossi
 VAN vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 56.9% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-09
Mason Marchment
 SJS vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 56.4% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
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