Points Model ?

What it does

For every skater Hard Rock Bet posts a points line on, the model says OVER or UNDER and how confident it is. A point is a goal or an assist; overtime counts, shootouts don't.

The goal is accuracy — picking the right side as often as possible — not finding the best price.

Which line

Each player gets one line: the one closest to even money. If Hard Rock has 0.5 points at −250 and 1.5 points at −170, the model uses the 1.5, because that bet is closer to a coin flip. Most players only have a 0.5 line; stars are often lined at 1.5.

How it decides

• Stats model — trained on every skater-game of the last seven seasons: recent and long-run scoring, shots, ice time and power-play time, how often he records a point, his team's scoring, the opponent's goals and shots allowed, penalty kill, rest and back-to-backs. It only ever sees games before the one it is predicting.
• Market — Hard Rock's own price with the vig removed, plus its prices on the same player's assists and goals and the game's moneyline and total.
• Blend — the final probability combines the two. Tested over two seasons, the blend picked the right side more often than either one alone.

Confidence & tiers

Confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins. Tiers: Top 66%+, Strong 61%+, Lean 56%+. Below that is a toss-up — the model still names a side, but it is close to a coin flip.

In the two-season test, confidence matched reality: picks rated 66%+ won about 68% of the time, toss-ups about 53%.

Reading the board

• Conf — model probability of the picked side. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of that side. Stats — the stats model alone.
• Season — games over this line this season. L5 / L10 — the same for his last 5 and 10 games (this season only).
• PPG — points per game this season.

Honest expectations

Because the line is chosen to be close to even, no model can be right much more than about 60% of the time across every player — a single game of hockey is that random. Accuracy climbs only by being selective, which is what the tiers are for.

Accuracy is not profit: the most confident picks are usually the favored side at a price like −180, so a high win rate can still lose money. This page tracks both.

Timing

Predictions refresh every 30 minutes as Hard Rock moves its lines and lock at puck drop; the locked prediction is the one graded. A scratched player is a void. Dates before live tracking show a walk-forward backtest at Hard Rock's closing lines.