← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-12-13 CBJ vs VGK OVER 1.5 lean -105 53.0% 48.0% +3.4% 2 W +0.95 —
2025-12-13 MTL @ NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.7% 43.4% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-12-13 NJD vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.5% 44.3% +4.0% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-12-12 SEA @ UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.6% +2.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-12-11 EDM vs DET UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.5% 41.7% +2.3% 1 W +1.25 —
2025-12-11 COL vs FLA OVER 1.5 lean -110 53.5% 49.0% +2.1% 3 W +0.91 —
2025-12-11 CBJ vs OTT OVER 1.5 lean -110 54.1% 49.0% +3.2% 2 W +0.91 —
2025-12-11 WSH vs CAR OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.5% +2.5% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-12-11 NJD vs TBL OVER 2.5 lean +140 42.7% 39.1% +2.5% 4 W +1.40 —
2025-12-11 TOR vs SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.1% 38.9% +3.5% 0 W +1.40 —
2025-12-10 CHI vs NYR OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.5% 46.5% +2.9% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-09 COL @ NSH UNDER 1.5 best +140 43.8% 39.1% +5.2% 0 W +1.40 —
2025-12-09 NSH vs COL OVER 1.5 lean -145 61.0% 55.4% +3.1% 4 W +0.69 —
2025-12-09 WPG vs DAL OVER 1.5 lean -115 54.8% 50.0% +2.5% 5 W +0.87 —
2025-12-09 DAL @ WPG UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.3% 48.0% +2.2% 0 W +0.95 —
2025-12-09 CAR vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -130 57.7% 53.1% +2.1% 1 W +0.77 —
2025-12-09 CAR vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.6% +2.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-12-09 TBL @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.1% 43.4% +3.5% 0 W +1.15 —
2025-12-08 DET @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.4% 40.6% +2.2% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-12-08 TBL @ TOR UNDER 3.5 lean -165 64.7% 58.4% +4.0% 1 W +0.61 —
2025-12-08 TBL @ TOR OVER 2.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.4% +2.1% 4 W +1.15 —
2025-12-08 TOR vs TBL UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.4% +2.5% 0 W +1.25 —
2025-12-07 MTL vs STL UNDER 1.5 lean +100 52.4% 46.5% +4.7% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-12-07 SJS @ CAR UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.3% 48.0% +2.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-12-07 NYI @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.0% 50.0% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-12-06 TBL vs NYI UNDER 3.5 best -155 64.5% 56.7% +6.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-12-06 WPG @ EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.5% 44.6% +4.0% 0 W +1.10 —
2025-12-06 EDM vs WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.3% 40.9% +4.2% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-12-06 TOR vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.8% +2.1% 0 W +1.35 —
2025-12-06 NJD @ BOS OVER 2.5 lean +135 43.9% 39.8% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-12-06 NYR vs COL OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.5% +3.2% 3 W +1.05 —
2025-12-06 COL @ NYR OVER 2.5 lean +150 40.8% 37.5% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-12-05 WSH @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.4% 40.6% +2.1% 2 W +1.30 —
2025-12-05 DAL vs SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.7% 43.4% +4.8% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-12-05 WPG vs BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.7% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-12-04 TOR @ CAR UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.4% 43.7% +6.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-12-04 NSH @ FLA OVER 2.5 lean +130 45.3% 40.9% +4.1% 3 W +1.30 —
2025-12-04 PIT @ TBL OVER 2.5 lean +135 43.7% 39.8% +2.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-12-03 WSH @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +140 42.6% 38.9% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-12-03 WPG @ MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +100 52.0% 46.9% +4.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-12-02 TBL @ NYI UNDER 1.5 best +160 41.0% 35.9% +6.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-12-02 WSH @ LAK OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.5% +2.6% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-02 COL vs VAN OVER 2.5 lean +145 42.2% 38.0% +3.4% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-12-02 NYI vs TBL UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.6% 43.7% +2.3% 0 W +1.15 —
2025-12-02 TBL @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.6% 44.6% +4.2% 0 W +1.10 —
2025-12-02 TOR @ FLA OVER 2.5 lean +130 45.4% 40.6% +4.4% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-12-01 ANA @ STL UNDER 3.5 lean -145 61.3% 55.4% +3.6% 2 W +0.69 —
2025-11-30 CAR vs CGY UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.2% 38.4% +5.8% 0 W +1.45 —
2025-11-30 ANA @ CHI UNDER 3.5 lean -120 56.5% 51.0% +3.6% 8 L -1.00 —
2025-11-30 CHI vs ANA OVER 1.5 lean -110 53.8% 49.0% +2.6% 3 W +0.91 —
2025-11-30 NYI vs WSH UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.9% +2.6% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-11-30 WSH @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.4% +2.1% 0 W +1.15 —
2025-11-29 MIN vs BUF UNDER 1.5 best +115 49.7% 43.7% +6.9% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-11-29 VGK vs SJS OVER 1.5 lean -140 59.8% 54.5% +2.5% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-11-29 TBL @ NYR UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.7% 48.0% +2.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-11-28 CAR vs WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.5% +2.5% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-11-28 WSH vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -170 64.4% 59.2% +2.3% 2 W +0.59 —
2025-11-28 MTL @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.6% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-11-28 TBL @ DET UNDER 3.5 lean -150 62.6% 56.3% +4.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-11-26 MIN @ CHI UNDER 1.5 best -105 55.5% 47.5% +8.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-11-26 ANA vs VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -115 55.8% 50.0% +4.4% 1 W +0.87 —
2025-11-26 MTL @ UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.5% 45.5% +3.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-11-26 WSH vs WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.1% 43.7% +3.5% 8 L -1.00 —
2025-11-26 BUF @ PIT UNDER 3.5 lean -125 57.0% 52.0% +2.6% 2 W +0.80 —
2025-11-24 WSH vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 best +130 45.7% 40.9% +5.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-11-24 FLA @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.6% 47.5% +2.8% 2 W +0.95 —
2025-11-24 NJD vs DET UNDER 1.5 lean +165 39.0% 35.1% +3.4% 1 W +1.65 —
2025-11-23 MIN @ WPG UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.0% 39.8% +5.6% 2 W +1.35 —
2025-11-23 CHI vs COL OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.4% 48.0% +2.2% 4 W +0.95 —
2025-11-22 NYR @ UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.9% 38.2% +2.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-11-22 NSH vs COL OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.1% 45.9% +2.7% 3 W +1.05 —
2025-11-22 OTT @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.7% 50.0% +4.2% 2 W +0.87 —
2025-11-22 TBL @ WSH UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.4% 41.4% +2.1% 0 W +1.25 —
2025-11-21 CAR @ WPG UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.4% 47.5% +2.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-11-21 CHI @ BUF OVER 1.5 lean +110 49.5% 44.6% +3.9% 2 W +1.10 —
2025-11-20 TBL vs EDM UNDER 2.5 best +105 52.6% 45.9% +7.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-11-20 OTT @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.8% 50.0% +4.3% 2 W +0.87 —
2025-11-20 DAL @ VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -135 58.7% 53.5% +2.2% 3 W +0.74 —
2025-11-20 VGK @ UTA OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.9% 46.5% +3.8% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-11-20 NYR @ COL OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.4% 46.9% +2.8% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-11-20 TBL vs EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.6% +2.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-11-20 WSH @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.4% 47.5% +2.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-11-19 CAR @ MIN UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.6% +2.9% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-11-19 BUF vs CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +105 49.8% 45.9% +2.2% 0 W +1.05 —
2025-11-19 BUF vs CGY UNDER 3.5 lean -105 52.7% 48.0% +2.9% 3 W +0.95 —
2025-11-18 TOR vs STL UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.1% 44.6% +3.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-11-17 MTL @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.4% 40.9% +6.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-11-17 BOS vs CAR UNDER 1.5 best -140 66.2% 54.5% +13.4% 1 W +0.71 —
2025-11-17 CBJ vs MTL UNDER 1.5 lean -115 54.6% 50.0% +2.0% 0 W +0.87 —
2025-11-17 EDM @ BUF UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.3% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-11-16 NYI @ COL OVER 2.5 lean +135 44.0% 39.6% +3.5% 6 W +1.35 —
2025-11-16 NYR vs DET UNDER 2.5 lean -170 64.6% 59.2% +2.6% 0 W +0.59 —
2025-11-16 TBL vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.3% 48.0% +4.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-11-15 DAL vs PHI UNDER 3.5 best -145 62.2% 55.4% +5.2% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-11-15 EDM @ CAR UNDER 2.5 best -125 58.8% 52.0% +5.9% 2 W +0.80 —
2025-11-15 BUF @ DET UNDER 1.5 best +105 51.3% 45.5% +5.1% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-11-15 CAR vs EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +100 52.4% 46.5% +4.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-11-15 BUF @ DET UNDER 3.5 lean -125 57.6% 52.0% +3.8% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-11-15 BOS @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.9% 50.0% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-11-15 TBL @ FLA UNDER 1.5 lean -125 58.0% 52.0% +4.3% 0 W +0.80 —
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