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SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-10-19
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -145 61.7% 55.4% +4.3% 1 W +0.69 —
2025-10-18
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ STL UNDER 2.5 best +120 49.7% 42.5% +9.4% 2 W +1.20 —
2025-10-18
Anthony Cirelli
 TBL @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 best +135 44.7% 39.8% +5.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-18
Zeev Buium
 MIN @ PHI UNDER 1.5 best -110 55.3% 49.0% +5.7% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-10-18
Zachary Bolduc
 MTL vs NYR UNDER 1.5 best +145 45.4% 38.2% +11.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-18
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR @ MTL UNDER 2.5 best -105 53.9% 47.5% +5.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-18
David Tomasek
 EDM @ NJD UNDER 1.5 best +110 50.2% 44.6% +5.5% 0 W +1.10 —
2025-10-18
Brad Marchand
 FLA @ BUF UNDER 2.5 best -120 57.8% 51.0% +6.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-18
Alex Laferriere
 LAK vs CAR UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.5% +2.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-18
Kevin Fiala
 LAK vs CAR UNDER 2.5 lean +105 51.1% 45.5% +4.7% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-10-18
Viktor Arvidsson
 BOS @ COL UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.4% +2.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-18
Alex Iafallo
 WPG vs NSH UNDER 1.5 lean -125 57.0% 51.5% +2.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-18
Filip Forsberg
 NSH @ WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.6% 39.8% +4.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-18
Matt Duchene
 DAL @ STL UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.5% +3.2% 0 W +1.05 —
2025-10-18
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ PHI UNDER 3.5 lean -155 62.6% 57.2% +3.0% 2 W +0.65 —
2025-10-18
Joel Eriksson Ek
 MIN @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.8% 45.5% +2.1% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-10-18
Ivan Demidov
 MTL vs NYR UNDER 1.5 lean -110 54.5% 49.0% +4.0% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-10-18
Will Cuylle
 NYR @ MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.4% 38.2% +4.0% 1 W +1.45 —
2025-10-18
Jared McCann
 SEA @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.2% 51.0% +3.0% 0 W +0.83 —
2025-10-18
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.0% 42.5% +3.5% 2 W +1.20 —
2025-10-18
Jake Sanderson
 OTT vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.9% 54.5% +2.7% 0 W +0.71 —
2025-10-18
Shane Pinto
 OTT vs NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.8% 37.5% +4.6% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-10-18
Anton Lundell
 FLA @ BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.7% 38.2% +2.2% 0 W +1.45 —
2025-10-18
Sam Bennett
 FLA @ BUF UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.6% +2.5% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-10-18
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA @ BUF UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.7% 50.0% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-17
Mason Appleton
 DET vs TBL UNDER 1.5 best -115 56.3% 50.0% +5.3% 0 W +0.87 —
2025-10-17
Jeff Skinner
 SJS @ UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.1% 42.5% +3.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-17
Jake DeBrusk
 VAN @ CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.2% 38.2% +3.3% 10 L -1.00 —
2025-10-17
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ WSH UNDER 3.5 lean -140 59.6% 54.5% +2.1% 1 W +0.71 —
2025-10-17
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs MIN UNDER 3.5 lean -120 56.8% 51.0% +4.1% 3 W +0.83 —
2025-10-17
Anthony Cirelli
 TBL @ DET UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.2% 44.6% +3.3% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-10-16
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs CAR UNDER 2.5 best +100 54.4% 46.5% +8.7% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-10-16
Sebastian Aho
 CAR @ ANA UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.6% 43.7% +6.6% 2 W +1.15 —
2025-10-16
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR @ ANA UNDER 1.5 best +120 48.7% 42.5% +7.2% 1 W +1.20 —
2025-10-16
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best +115 50.9% 43.7% +9.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-16
David Tomasek
 EDM @ NYI UNDER 1.5 best +135 46.9% 39.8% +10.2% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-10-16
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best +130 45.9% 40.6% +5.5% 2 W +1.30 —
2025-10-16
Brad Marchand
 FLA @ NJD UNDER 2.5 best -140 61.5% 54.5% +5.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-16
Jake Sanderson
 OTT vs SEA UNDER 2.5 best -140 61.3% 54.5% +5.1% 2 W +0.71 —
2025-10-16
Zachary Bolduc
 MTL vs NSH UNDER 1.5 best +145 46.0% 38.2% +12.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-16
Patrik Laine
 MTL vs NSH UNDER 1.5 best +115 49.5% 43.7% +6.5% 0 W +1.15 —
2025-10-16
Artemi Panarin
 NYR @ TOR UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.2% 41.7% +6.2% 2 W +1.25 —
2025-10-16
Kevin Fiala
 LAK vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.5% 39.8% +4.7% 2 W +1.35 —
2025-10-16
Jackson Blake
 CAR @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -145 61.3% 55.4% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-16
Seth Jarvis
 CAR @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.9% 44.3% +4.7% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-10-16
Viktor Arvidsson
 BOS @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -200 69.1% 62.5% +3.7% 1 W +0.50 —
2025-10-16
Josh Morrissey
 WPG @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.7% 38.0% +4.6% 1 W +1.45 —
2025-10-16
Darnell Nurse
 EDM @ NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.7% 39.8% +2.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-16
Anton Lundell
 FLA @ NJD UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.3% 40.6% +4.1% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-10-16
Evan Rodrigues
 FLA @ NJD UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.4% 41.7% +2.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-16
Sam Bennett
 FLA @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.1% 46.9% +4.1% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-10-16
Shane Pinto
 OTT vs SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.2% 39.8% +3.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-16
Will Cuylle
 NYR @ TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.2% 39.8% +3.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-16
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.7% 47.5% +4.8% 2 W +0.95 —
2025-10-15
Dylan Guenther
 UTA vs CGY UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.1% 39.8% +6.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-15
Mackie Samoskevich
 FLA @ DET UNDER 1.5 best +115 49.2% 43.4% +5.8% 0 W +1.15 —
2025-10-15
Anton Lundell
 FLA @ DET UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.6% 38.2% +4.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-15
Sam Bennett
 FLA @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.6% 43.7% +4.4% 2 W +1.15 —
2025-10-15
Sam Reinhart
 FLA @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.3% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-10-15
Brad Marchand
 FLA @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean -145 60.9% 55.4% +2.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-15
Jake Sanderson
 OTT @ BUF UNDER 2.5 lean -145 60.9% 55.4% +3.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-15
Ridly Greig
 OTT @ BUF UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.8% 48.0% +3.1% 0 W +0.95 —
2025-10-14
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs PIT UNDER 3.5 best -165 67.2% 57.8% +7.9% 2 W +0.61 —
2025-10-14
Seth Jarvis
 CAR @ SJS UNDER 2.5 best +125 48.7% 41.7% +9.5% 1 W +1.25 —
2025-10-14
Sean Walker
 CAR @ SJS UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.4% 40.6% +6.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-14
Sebastian Aho
 CAR @ SJS UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.8% 43.7% +7.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-14
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR @ SJS UNDER 1.5 best +125 49.0% 41.4% +10.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-14
Vladimir Tarasenko
 MIN @ DAL UNDER 1.5 best +120 48.2% 42.5% +6.0% 1 W +1.20 —
2025-10-14
Will Cuylle
 NYR vs EDM UNDER 1.5 best +140 44.5% 38.9% +6.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-14
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ NYR UNDER 3.5 best -150 63.4% 55.8% +5.6% 1 W +0.67 —
2025-10-14
Zachary Bolduc
 MTL vs SEA UNDER 2.5 best -200 72.0% 62.5% +7.9% 1 W +0.50 —
2025-10-14
Jackson Blake
 CAR @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -165 64.4% 58.4% +3.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-14
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.2% 49.0% +3.4% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-10-14
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ DAL UNDER 3.5 lean -125 57.4% 52.0% +3.3% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-10-14
Pavel Dorofeyev
 VGK @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.6% +4.1% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-10-14
Anthony Cirelli
 TBL @ WSH UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.5% 43.7% +4.2% 0 W +1.15 —
2025-10-14
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs TBL UNDER 3.5 lean -135 59.8% 53.5% +4.2% 3 W +0.74 —
2025-10-14
David Tomasek
 EDM @ NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +105 49.8% 45.5% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-14
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.4% 50.0% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-14
Patrik Laine
 MTL vs SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.7% 43.4% +2.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-13
Anton Lundell
 FLA @ PHI UNDER 1.5 best +135 44.7% 39.8% +5.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-13
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best +105 53.9% 45.5% +10.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-13
Matias Maccelli
 TOR vs DET UNDER 1.5 best +110 52.4% 44.6% +10.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-13
Alex Iafallo
 WPG @ NYI UNDER 1.5 best -115 56.6% 50.0% +5.8% 0 W +0.87 —
2025-10-13
Shane Pinto
 OTT vs NSH UNDER 1.5 best +140 44.0% 38.9% +5.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-13
Trevor Zegras
 PHI vs FLA OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.6% 47.5% +2.6% 2 W +0.95 —
2025-10-13
Sam Bennett
 FLA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.5% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-13
Brad Marchand
 FLA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -140 61.0% 54.5% +4.6% 0 W +0.71 —
2025-10-13
Auston Matthews
 TOR vs DET UNDER 3.5 lean -105 52.3% 48.0% +2.1% 8 L -1.00 —
2025-10-13
Jake Sanderson
 OTT vs NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.5% 54.5% +3.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-13
Viktor Arvidsson
 BOS vs TBL UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.9% 39.1% +3.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-13
Josh Doan
 BUF vs COL UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.8% 43.7% +2.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-13
Martin Necas
 COL @ BUF OVER 2.5 lean +150 41.9% 37.5% +4.8% 3 W +1.50 —
2025-10-12
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH @ NYR UNDER 3.5 lean -160 62.9% 57.5% +2.1% 3 W +0.63 —
2025-10-11
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ SJS UNDER 2.5 best -105 54.5% 47.5% +6.4% 9 L -1.00 —
2025-10-11
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.7% 39.8% +7.4% 2 W +1.35 —
2025-10-11
Evander Kane
 VAN @ EDM UNDER 2.5 best -135 60.4% 53.5% +5.1% 1 W +0.74 —
2025-10-11
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ NSH UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.6% 42.5% +7.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-11
Ivan Demidov
 MTL @ CHI UNDER 1.5 best +100 52.8% 46.5% +5.5% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-10-11
Zachary Bolduc
 MTL @ CHI UNDER 1.5 best +145 46.5% 38.2% +13.8% 3 L -1.00 —
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