← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-05-15 CAR @ WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.4% 48.0% +4.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-05-15 WSH vs CAR OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.4% 48.0% +2.4% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-05-15 WSH vs CAR OVER 1.5 lean +100 52.0% 46.9% +4.0% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-05-15 WSH vs CAR UNDER 3.5 lean -145 60.7% 55.4% +2.5% 3 W +0.69 —
2025-05-14 VGK vs EDM UNDER 2.5 best +125 46.8% 41.7% +5.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-05-14 VGK vs EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.7% 43.7% +4.8% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-05-14 EDM @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.6% +3.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-05-14 FLA @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.6% +2.7% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-05-14 TOR vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.1% 45.5% +2.6% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-05-12 CAR vs WSH UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.6% 44.6% +6.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-05-12 EDM vs VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.9% 46.9% +3.9% 0 W +1.00 —
2025-05-12 CAR vs WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.7% 50.0% +2.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-05-12 WSH @ CAR UNDER 3.5 lean -165 64.5% 58.4% +3.6% 3 W +0.61 —
2025-05-11 WPG @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -185 67.1% 60.9% +3.4% 2 W +0.54 —
2025-05-10 VGK @ EDM UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.7% 40.6% +7.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-05-10 CAR vs WSH UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.3% 45.5% +5.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-05-10 CAR vs WSH UNDER 1.5 best +110 50.1% 44.6% +5.1% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-05-10 CAR vs WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.5% 48.5% +2.2% 0 W +0.91 —
2025-05-10 WSH @ CAR UNDER 3.5 lean -175 65.5% 59.4% +2.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-05-09 WPG vs DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -170 65.9% 58.6% +4.7% 1 W +0.59 —
2025-05-08 VGK vs EDM UNDER 1.5 best +125 47.9% 41.4% +7.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-05-08 CAR @ WSH UNDER 2.5 best +105 52.2% 45.9% +6.9% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-05-08 CAR @ WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.9% 47.5% +3.3% 1 W +0.95 —
2025-05-08 WSH vs CAR OVER 1.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.8% +3.1% 2 W +1.20 —
2025-05-08 WSH vs CAR UNDER 3.5 lean -155 62.7% 56.7% +3.1% 3 W +0.65 —
2025-05-07 WPG vs DAL OVER 1.5 lean +125 45.7% 41.7% +2.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-05-07 DAL @ WPG UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.8% 38.9% +2.6% 1 W +1.40 —
2025-05-07 FLA @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.5% 45.9% +3.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-05-06 WSH vs CAR UNDER 3.5 lean -135 60.1% 53.5% +4.6% 1 W +0.74 —
2025-05-05 FLA @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.4% 0 W +1.05 —
2025-05-03 COL @ DAL UNDER 3.5 best -130 59.4% 53.1% +5.1% 1 W +0.77 —
2025-05-03 COL @ DAL OVER 2.5 lean +130 45.6% 40.6% +4.8% 3 W +1.30 —
2025-05-01 COL vs DAL OVER 2.5 best +140 44.2% 39.1% +6.1% 4 W +1.40 —
2025-05-01 OTT vs TOR UNDER 3.5 best +115 48.9% 43.4% +5.1% 2 W +1.15 —
2025-05-01 EDM vs LAK UNDER 1.5 lean -105 52.7% 48.0% +2.9% 0 W +0.95 —
2025-05-01 VGK @ MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.7% 50.0% +2.2% 2 W +0.87 —
2025-05-01 COL vs DAL UNDER 3.5 lean -145 61.0% 55.4% +3.1% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-05-01 COL vs DAL OVER 1.5 lean -185 67.8% 60.4% +4.4% 6 W +0.54 —
2025-05-01 COL vs DAL OVER 2.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.5% +2.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-05-01 TOR @ OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.6% 49.0% +2.3% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-04-30 WSH vs MTL UNDER 3.5 best +105 52.9% 45.9% +8.5% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-04-29 LAK vs EDM OVER 1.5 best +115 49.0% 43.4% +5.4% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-28 COL @ DAL OVER 2.5 best +145 43.5% 38.2% +6.6% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-28 COL @ DAL OVER 1.5 lean -180 65.7% 60.2% +2.2% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-28 FLA vs TBL OVER 2.5 lean +115 47.7% 43.7% +2.5% 3 W +1.15 —
2025-04-27 WSH @ MTL UNDER 3.5 best -115 56.4% 50.0% +5.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-04-27 LAK @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.6% +2.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-04-26 COL vs DAL OVER 2.5 best +125 46.7% 41.7% +5.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-26 COL vs DAL OVER 1.5 best -155 64.9% 56.7% +6.7% 3 W +0.65 —
2025-04-26 VGK @ MIN OVER 1.5 lean -145 60.5% 55.4% +2.2% 4 W +0.69 —
2025-04-26 FLA vs TBL OVER 2.5 lean +120 47.2% 42.5% +3.9% 3 W +1.20 —
2025-04-25 MTL vs WSH UNDER 1.5 lean -120 55.7% 51.0% +2.1% 1 W +0.83 —
2025-04-24 FLA @ TBL OVER 2.5 lean +130 45.1% 40.6% +3.6% 4 W +1.30 —
2025-04-23 COL vs DAL OVER 1.5 best -170 68.6% 59.2% +9.0% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-23 MTL @ WSH UNDER 1.5 best -110 56.2% 49.0% +7.2% 0 W +0.91 —
2025-04-23 WSH vs MTL UNDER 3.5 best +105 52.3% 45.5% +7.3% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-04-23 EDM @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.6% 40.6% +2.6% 2 W +1.30 —
2025-04-22 MIN @ VGK OVER 1.5 lean +110 49.3% 44.6% +3.5% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-22 VGK vs MIN OVER 1.5 lean -140 59.6% 54.5% +2.2% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-22 CAR vs NJD UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.2% 46.9% +2.5% 0 W +1.00 —
2025-04-22 FLA @ TBL OVER 2.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.3% +3.7% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-21 LAK vs EDM OVER 1.5 best +155 41.9% 36.7% +6.7% 5 W +1.55 —
2025-04-21 EDM @ LAK OVER 1.5 best +120 49.2% 42.5% +8.2% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-21 EDM @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.3% 40.6% +4.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-04-21 COL @ DAL OVER 1.5 lean -195 67.8% 61.8% +2.6% 3 W +0.51 —
2025-04-21 COL @ DAL OVER 2.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.6% +2.9% 4 W +1.10 —
2025-04-21 DAL vs COL OVER 1.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.8% +2.5% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-21 COL @ DAL OVER 1.5 lean -125 57.6% 52.0% +3.6% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-20 VGK vs MIN OVER 1.5 best +160 41.9% 36.2% +8.9% 2 W +1.60 —
2025-04-20 VGK vs MIN OVER 1.5 best +145 43.7% 38.2% +7.0% 2 W +1.45 —
2025-04-20 MIN @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean -135 58.9% 54.1% +2.4% 1 W +0.74 —
2025-04-20 VGK vs MIN OVER 1.5 lean +110 49.8% 44.6% +4.5% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-20 VGK vs MIN OVER 1.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.5% +2.3% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-20 VGK vs MIN OVER 1.5 lean +120 47.0% 42.5% +3.5% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-20 VGK vs MIN OVER 1.5 lean +145 42.6% 38.2% +4.4% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-20 CAR vs NJD OVER 1.5 lean +160 39.8% 35.9% +3.5% 4 W +1.60 —
2025-04-20 NJD @ CAR OVER 1.5 lean -130 58.0% 52.5% +2.6% 3 W +0.77 —
2025-04-20 CAR vs NJD OVER 1.5 lean -115 55.6% 50.0% +3.9% 3 W +0.87 —
2025-04-20 CAR vs NJD UNDER 1.5 lean -115 55.8% 50.0% +4.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-04-20 OTT @ TOR UNDER 3.5 lean -110 53.9% 49.0% +2.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-04-19 COL @ DAL OVER 1.5 lean -180 66.6% 60.2% +3.6% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-19 COL @ DAL OVER 2.5 lean +110 49.1% 44.6% +3.2% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-19 DAL vs COL OVER 1.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.5% +3.2% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-19 COL @ DAL OVER 1.5 lean -130 58.8% 53.1% +4.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-17 LAK vs CGY UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.8% 51.0% +4.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-04-16 EDM @ SJS UNDER 1.5 best +135 47.2% 39.8% +10.8% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-04-16 NJD vs DET UNDER 2.5 best +130 48.2% 40.6% +10.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-04-16 MTL vs CAR UNDER 1.5 best +135 46.9% 39.8% +10.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-04-16 CAR @ MTL UNDER 1.5 best +140 44.4% 39.1% +6.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-04-16 EDM @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.1% 45.9% +2.8% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-04-16 EDM @ SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.5% 44.3% +3.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-04-16 DAL @ NSH OVER 1.5 lean +130 44.8% 40.9% +3.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-16 NJD vs DET UNDER 1.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.6% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-04-16 ANA @ WPG OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.8% 45.9% +4.2% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-04-15 STL vs UTA UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.8% 45.5% +4.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-04-15 WSH @ NYI UNDER 3.5 lean -125 57.1% 52.0% +2.8% 2 W +0.80 —
2025-04-15 PHI vs CBJ OVER 1.5 lean +110 48.6% 44.6% +2.0% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-15 TBL vs FLA OVER 1.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.6% +3.8% 2 W +1.10 —
2025-04-15 BUF vs TOR OVER 2.5 lean +140 42.6% 38.9% +2.1% 4 W +1.40 —
2025-04-15 BOS vs NJD OVER 1.5 lean +125 46.0% 41.7% +3.6% 3 W +1.25 —
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