← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-04-14 NYR @ FLA OVER 1.5 best +105 51.3% 45.5% +5.2% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-14 NSH vs UTA OVER 2.5 lean +135 43.8% 39.6% +2.9% 3 W +1.35 —
2025-04-14 FLA vs NYR UNDER 2.5 lean -150 62.5% 55.8% +4.1% 1 W +0.67 —
2025-04-14 CHI @ MTL OVER 1.5 lean -180 65.7% 60.2% +2.2% 3 W +0.56 —
2025-04-14 CHI @ MTL OVER 1.5 lean +120 47.7% 42.5% +5.0% 3 W +1.20 —
2025-04-13 COL @ ANA UNDER 2.5 best -180 72.4% 60.2% +12.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-04-13 COL @ ANA UNDER 1.5 best -115 56.4% 50.0% +5.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-04-13 ANA vs COL OVER 1.5 best +110 50.0% 44.6% +5.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-13 TOR @ CAR OVER 1.5 best -110 55.5% 49.0% +5.9% 3 W +0.91 —
2025-04-13 ANA vs COL OVER 1.5 lean -115 54.8% 50.0% +2.4% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-13 CBJ @ WSH OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.2% 45.5% +2.9% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-13 CBJ @ WSH OVER 1.5 lean -130 59.1% 53.1% +4.5% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-13 WSH vs CBJ UNDER 3.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.9% +3.0% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-04-13 TOR @ CAR OVER 2.5 lean +100 51.2% 46.5% +2.3% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-12 SEA vs STL OVER 1.5 best -110 55.0% 49.0% +5.0% 2 W +0.91 —
2025-04-12 CHI vs WPG OVER 1.5 best +110 50.4% 44.3% +5.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-12 SEA vs STL OVER 1.5 lean -120 55.7% 51.0% +2.1% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-12 NSH @ VGK OVER 1.5 lean -120 56.7% 51.0% +3.9% 3 W +0.83 —
2025-04-12 NSH @ VGK OVER 1.5 lean -115 54.8% 50.0% +2.5% 2 W +0.87 —
2025-04-12 MIN @ VAN OVER 1.5 lean +120 47.5% 42.5% +4.5% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-12 DAL vs UTA OVER 2.5 lean +145 41.6% 38.2% +2.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-04-12 CHI vs WPG OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.3% 48.0% +2.1% 5 W +0.95 —
2025-04-12 CHI vs WPG OVER 1.5 lean -190 67.5% 61.1% +3.0% 2 W +0.53 —
2025-04-12 NYR @ CAR OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.9% +2.1% 3 W +1.00 —
2025-04-12 NYR @ CAR OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.5% +3.1% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-12 NYI @ PHI OVER 1.5 lean -130 57.9% 52.5% +2.4% 4 W +0.77 —
2025-04-11 MIN @ CGY OVER 1.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.6% +2.5% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-11 EDM vs SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.1% 45.5% +2.8% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-04-11 EDM vs SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.9% +3.2% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-04-10 LAK vs ANA UNDER 1.5 best +145 45.6% 38.2% +11.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-04-10 ANA @ LAK OVER 1.5 best +105 52.1% 45.5% +6.7% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-04-10 LAK vs ANA UNDER 2.5 best +135 44.7% 39.8% +5.1% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-04-10 WSH vs CAR OVER 1.5 best +100 53.8% 46.9% +7.6% 3 W +1.00 —
2025-04-10 ANA @ LAK OVER 1.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.3% +2.5% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-10 SEA @ VGK OVER 1.5 lean -105 53.2% 48.0% +3.9% 2 W +0.95 —
2025-04-10 WSH vs CAR OVER 1.5 lean -115 55.0% 50.0% +2.7% 4 W +0.87 —
2025-04-10 WSH vs CAR OVER 1.5 lean -130 58.6% 53.1% +3.6% 4 W +0.77 —
2025-04-10 DET @ FLA OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.9% +3.2% 3 W +1.00 —
2025-04-10 CHI @ BOS OVER 2.5 lean +145 42.0% 38.2% +2.9% 3 W +1.45 —
2025-04-10 CHI @ BOS OVER 1.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.6% +2.8% 2 W +1.10 —
2025-04-09 STL @ EDM OVER 1.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.6% +2.5% 2 W +1.10 —
2025-04-08 BUF vs CAR OVER 1.5 best -105 54.8% 48.0% +6.9% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-08 SEA @ UTA OVER 1.5 lean +100 52.4% 46.9% +4.8% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-04-08 CHI @ PIT OVER 2.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.8% +2.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-04-08 TOR @ FLA OVER 1.5 lean -125 58.0% 52.0% +4.4% 3 W +0.80 —
2025-04-08 TOR @ FLA OVER 2.5 lean -105 52.5% 48.0% +2.5% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-04-07 SEA @ LAK OVER 1.5 lean +115 48.4% 43.7% +4.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-04-07 WPG vs STL UNDER 1.5 lean -110 53.9% 49.0% +2.8% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-04-06 FLA @ DET UNDER 2.5 best -130 60.4% 52.5% +6.9% 2 W +0.77 —
2025-04-06 WSH @ NYI UNDER 3.5 best +105 54.9% 45.9% +12.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-04-06 FLA @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean -175 65.2% 59.4% +2.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-04-06 FLA @ DET UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.5% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-04-06 FLA @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.9% 44.3% +4.8% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-04-05 COL @ STL UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.8% 39.8% +7.6% 2 W +1.35 —
2025-04-05 SEA @ SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.7% 42.5% +2.7% 0 W +1.20 —
2025-04-05 BUF vs TBL OVER 1.5 lean -115 54.6% 50.0% +2.1% 2 W +0.87 —
2025-04-05 CAR @ BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.4% 46.9% +2.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-04-05 PIT @ DAL OVER 2.5 lean +140 42.8% 38.9% +2.8% 4 W +1.40 —
2025-04-05 NYR @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.6% 42.5% +4.8% 2 W +1.20 —
2025-04-04 WSH vs CHI UNDER 3.5 best +125 49.2% 41.7% +10.6% 3 W +1.25 —
2025-04-04 NYI vs MIN UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.2% 45.9% +2.9% 0 W +1.05 —
2025-04-03 NSH @ DAL OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.9% 45.9% +4.3% 4 W +1.05 —
2025-04-03 STL vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.6% 39.8% +4.8% 0 W +1.35 —
2025-04-03 COL @ CBJ UNDER 3.5 lean -150 61.9% 56.3% +3.1% 3 W +0.67 —
2025-04-02 COL @ CHI UNDER 3.5 lean -150 62.3% 56.3% +3.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-04-02 WSH @ CAR UNDER 3.5 lean -165 63.9% 58.4% +2.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-04-01 WPG @ LAK UNDER 1.5 best -130 59.9% 52.5% +5.9% 0 W +0.77 —
2025-04-01 WSH @ BOS UNDER 3.5 best -110 55.9% 49.0% +6.8% 2 W +0.91 —
2025-03-31 SEA vs DAL OVER 1.5 best -105 55.5% 48.0% +8.3% 2 W +0.95 —
2025-03-31 COL vs CGY UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.9% +3.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-03-31 COL vs CGY OVER 1.5 lean -135 59.0% 53.5% +2.7% 3 W +0.74 —
2025-03-30 PIT vs OTT OVER 2.5 best +130 47.0% 40.6% +8.1% 3 W +1.30 —
2025-03-30 UTA @ CHI UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.8% 39.8% +7.6% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-03-30 WSH vs BUF UNDER 3.5 best -110 55.4% 49.0% +5.8% 3 W +0.91 —
2025-03-30 ANA vs TOR OVER 1.5 lean -140 59.7% 54.5% +2.4% 4 W +0.71 —
2025-03-30 PIT vs OTT OVER 2.5 lean -105 52.9% 48.0% +3.2% 6 W +0.95 —
2025-03-29 SEA vs DAL OVER 1.5 best -110 56.6% 49.0% +8.1% 2 W +0.91 —
2025-03-29 BOS @ DET OVER 1.5 lean +125 46.0% 41.4% +3.4% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-29 LAK vs TOR OVER 1.5 lean +110 48.9% 44.6% +2.6% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-29 OTT vs CBJ OVER 1.5 lean -155 63.2% 57.2% +4.0% 3 W +0.65 —
2025-03-29 VGK @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.3% 46.5% +2.7% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-03-29 COL vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.5% +3.2% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-03-29 COL vs STL OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.8% 48.0% +3.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-29 COL vs STL OVER 1.5 lean -130 58.1% 53.1% +2.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-28 ANA vs NYR OVER 1.5 best +105 52.3% 45.5% +7.3% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-28 ANA vs NYR OVER 1.5 lean -155 62.0% 57.2% +2.0% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-28 ANA vs NYR OVER 2.5 lean +115 47.8% 43.7% +2.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-28 MTL @ CAR UNDER 2.5 lean -195 67.6% 61.8% +2.2% 1 W +0.51 —
2025-03-28 UTA @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.7% 43.7% +4.7% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-03-27 MTL @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best -180 68.6% 60.2% +6.8% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-03-27 UTA @ TBL UNDER 2.5 best +130 47.2% 40.9% +8.7% 2 W +1.30 —
2025-03-27 OTT @ DET OVER 1.5 best -125 59.2% 52.0% +6.6% 2 W +0.80 —
2025-03-27 EDM @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.8% 54.5% +4.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-03-27 CGY vs DAL OVER 2.5 lean +150 41.4% 37.5% +3.5% 7 W +1.50 —
2025-03-27 COL vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.5% +3.1% 0 W +1.20 —
2025-03-27 COL vs LAK OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.9% +3.2% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-27 WSH @ MIN OVER 1.5 lean -110 53.6% 49.0% +2.4% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-27 WSH @ MIN UNDER 3.5 lean -120 55.7% 51.0% +2.0% 3 W +0.83 —
2025-03-27 STL @ NSH UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.5% +2.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-27 STL @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.2% 48.0% +3.8% 3 L -1.00 —
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