← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-02-22 VGK vs VAN UNDER 1.5 best +125 47.2% 41.7% +6.2% 1 W +1.25 —
2025-02-22 UTA @ LAK UNDER 2.5 best +100 53.4% 46.5% +6.8% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-02-22 CBJ vs CHI OVER 2.5 best +135 46.6% 39.8% +9.4% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-02-22 CBJ vs CHI OVER 2.5 best +110 50.2% 44.3% +5.3% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-02-22 BUF vs NYR OVER 2.5 best +145 42.9% 38.0% +5.1% 3 W +1.45 —
2025-02-22 LAK vs UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.5% 50.0% +3.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-22 CHI @ CBJ OVER 1.5 lean -105 53.3% 48.0% +4.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-02-22 OTT vs MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.8% 39.8% +2.8% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-02-22 DAL @ NJD UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.8% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-22 FLA vs SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-02-22 SEA @ FLA OVER 1.5 lean -105 53.3% 48.0% +4.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-02-22 SEA @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.1% 56.7% +2.2% 2 W +0.65 —
2025-02-22 BUF vs NYR OVER 1.5 lean -145 61.7% 55.4% +4.3% 2 W +0.69 —
2025-02-22 NYR @ BUF UNDER 3.5 lean -165 64.1% 58.4% +2.9% 3 W +0.61 —
2025-02-22 BUF vs NYR OVER 1.5 lean -155 62.8% 56.7% +3.3% 3 W +0.65 —
2025-02-22 WSH @ PIT UNDER 3.5 lean -150 62.2% 56.3% +3.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-22 EDM @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.6% +3.9% 2 W +1.30 —
2025-02-09 UTA @ WSH UNDER 2.5 best +110 54.0% 44.6% +13.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-02-09 UTA @ WSH UNDER 1.5 best +135 45.9% 39.6% +7.9% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-02-09 WSH vs UTA UNDER 3.5 lean -145 61.0% 55.4% +3.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-08 UTA @ CAR UNDER 2.5 best -120 58.0% 51.0% +6.3% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-02-08 DAL @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.6% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-08 ANA @ LAK UNDER 1.5 lean -110 53.4% 49.0% +2.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-02-08 VAN vs TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.9% +3.1% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-02-08 CHI @ STL OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.3% 48.0% +2.1% 2 W +0.95 —
2025-02-08 NYR @ CBJ UNDER 3.5 lean -155 62.8% 56.7% +3.3% 2 W +0.65 —
2025-02-08 PIT @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.7% +3.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-08 FLA vs OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.1% 38.2% +3.1% 1 W +1.45 —
2025-02-08 VGK @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.9% 48.0% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-08 CAR vs UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.0% 38.9% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-02-08 UTA @ CAR UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.3% 42.5% +4.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-02-08 CAR vs UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -150 62.7% 56.3% +4.6% 1 W +0.67 —
2025-02-08 MTL vs NJD UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.8% 39.8% +3.0% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-02-07 PIT @ NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.9% +3.2% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-02-07 NYR vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.3% 51.0% +3.2% 2 W +0.83 —
2025-02-07 PIT @ NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.6% +2.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-06 UTA @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 best +100 53.1% 46.5% +6.1% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-02-06 NJD vs VGK UNDER 2.5 best -115 56.8% 50.0% +6.1% 1 W +0.87 —
2025-02-06 SJS vs VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -170 64.3% 59.2% +2.1% 2 W +0.59 —
2025-02-06 FLA @ STL UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.3% 39.8% +4.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-06 WSH @ PHI UNDER 3.5 lean -175 65.2% 59.4% +2.5% 2 W +0.57 —
2025-02-06 NJD vs VGK UNDER 3.5 lean -110 54.4% 49.0% +3.8% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-02-06 NJD vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.7% 46.5% +3.3% 0 W +1.00 —
2025-02-06 TBL vs OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.4% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-02-05 MTL @ LAK UNDER 1.5 best +145 44.3% 38.2% +8.5% 0 W +1.45 —
2025-02-05 EDM @ CHI UNDER 1.5 best +100 52.8% 46.9% +5.6% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-02-05 NYR vs BOS UNDER 3.5 lean -160 63.0% 57.5% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-04 MTL @ SJS UNDER 2.5 best -120 60.0% 51.0% +9.9% 1 W +0.83 —
2025-02-04 FLA @ WSH UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.4% 40.9% +6.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-02-04 DAL @ ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +150 40.8% 37.5% +2.1% 1 W +1.50 —
2025-02-04 DAL @ ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.6% 38.2% +4.3% 1 W +1.45 —
2025-02-04 NJD @ PIT UNDER 3.5 lean -105 52.8% 48.0% +3.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-02-04 NJD @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.5% 48.0% +4.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-04 TBL vs OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.7% 43.4% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-04 MIN @ BOS OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.8% 46.9% +3.6% 4 W +1.00 —
2025-02-03 OTT @ NSH UNDER 3.5 lean -105 53.0% 48.0% +3.5% 3 W +0.95 —
2025-02-02 DET @ VAN UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.2% 39.8% +6.2% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-02-02 NYR vs VGK UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.1% 39.8% +6.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-02 FLA vs NYI UNDER 1.5 best +135 44.8% 39.6% +5.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-02 MTL @ ANA UNDER 2.5 best -105 55.5% 48.0% +8.4% 1 W +0.95 —
2025-02-02 UTA vs STL UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.3% 39.8% +4.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-02 DAL vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.9% 39.6% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-02-02 VGK @ NYR OVER 1.5 lean -140 60.2% 54.5% +3.1% 4 W +0.71 —
2025-02-02 NYI @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -190 67.3% 61.1% +2.7% 1 W +0.53 —
2025-02-02 FLA vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.8% 45.5% +2.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-02-02 FLA vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.9% 50.0% +2.7% 1 W +0.87 —
2025-02-02 FLA vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.9% 45.5% +4.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-02 ANA vs MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.3% 40.6% +4.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-02 COL vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.5% 48.0% +2.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-02 NJD @ BUF UNDER 3.5 lean +100 52.4% 46.9% +4.8% 3 W +1.00 —
2025-02-01 DET @ CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.6% +2.5% 0 W +1.10 —
2025-02-01 DET @ CGY UNDER 3.5 lean -145 60.8% 55.4% +2.8% 3 W +0.69 —
2025-02-01 NSH @ PIT UNDER 3.5 lean -115 54.7% 50.0% +2.3% 3 W +0.87 —
2025-02-01 TBL vs NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.6% +3.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-01 NYI @ TBL UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.6% 38.2% +4.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-02-01 FLA vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.6% 43.7% +2.4% 9 L -1.00 —
2025-01-31 UTA vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 best +140 44.9% 39.1% +7.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-31 STL @ COL UNDER 1.5 best +145 42.9% 38.2% +5.2% 0 W +1.45 —
2025-01-31 UTA vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.5% 44.3% +3.9% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-01-31 DAL vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -185 67.6% 60.9% +4.2% 1 W +0.54 —
2025-01-31 DAL vs VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.4% 38.2% +4.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-30 NYI @ PHI UNDER 1.5 best +115 50.1% 43.4% +7.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-30 MTL vs MIN UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.2% 50.0% +6.9% 1 W +0.87 —
2025-01-30 SJS @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.0% 40.6% +3.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-30 VGK vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -125 56.8% 52.0% +2.2% 2 W +0.80 —
2025-01-30 ANA @ CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.7% 44.6% +4.3% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-01-30 CAR vs CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.6% 40.6% +2.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-30 CAR vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.5% 48.0% +4.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-30 CAR vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.0% 53.5% +2.7% 1 W +0.74 —
2025-01-30 PHI vs NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.5% 44.6% +4.0% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-01-30 TBL vs LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.7% 46.5% +3.3% 0 W +1.00 —
2025-01-30 WSH @ OTT UNDER 3.5 lean -165 63.6% 58.4% +2.2% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-01-29 NJD vs PHI UNDER 3.5 best -105 55.2% 47.5% +7.8% 3 W +0.95 —
2025-01-29 NJD vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best +115 50.4% 43.4% +8.3% 2 W +1.15 —
2025-01-29 NJD vs PHI UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.1% 38.4% +5.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-29 FLA vs LAK UNDER 1.5 best +130 45.9% 40.6% +5.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-29 MIN @ TOR UNDER 1.5 best +105 51.2% 45.5% +5.0% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-01-29 NSH vs VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -130 58.1% 53.1% +2.8% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-29 NJD vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -130 59.3% 52.5% +5.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-28 NYI vs COL UNDER 1.5 best +115 48.9% 43.4% +5.0% 0 W +1.15 —
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