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SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-01-12
Erik Karlsson
 PIT vs TBL UNDER 2.5 best -115 56.3% 50.0% +5.2% 1 W +0.87 —
2025-01-12
Shane Pinto
 OTT vs DAL UNDER 2.5 best -175 66.9% 59.4% +5.2% 1 W +0.57 —
2025-01-12
Thomas Harley
 DAL @ OTT UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.0% 40.6% +5.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-12
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ OTT UNDER 2.5 best -125 58.7% 52.0% +5.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-12
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.4% 38.9% +4.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-12
Victor Hedman
 TBL @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -130 57.9% 52.5% +2.4% 1 W +0.77 —
2025-01-12
Logan Stankoven
 DAL @ OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.1% 54.5% +3.1% 1 W +0.71 —
2025-01-12
Jake Sanderson
 OTT vs DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.9% 40.6% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-12
Brady Tkachuk
 OTT vs DAL UNDER 3.5 lean -115 54.7% 50.0% +2.2% 2 W +0.87 —
2025-01-12
Josh Norris
 OTT vs DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.3% 39.1% +3.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-12
Jamie Benn
 DAL @ OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.2% 37.5% +3.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-12
Lucas Raymond
 DET vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -175 64.9% 59.4% +2.0% 1 W +0.57 —
2025-01-12
Vince Dunn
 SEA @ DET UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.4% 38.2% +3.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-12
Dylan Larkin
 DET vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.2% 43.4% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-12
Oliver Bjorkstrand
 SEA @ DET UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.5% 38.2% +4.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
William Eklund
 SJS vs MIN UNDER 1.5 best +125 47.1% 41.7% +6.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Will Cuylle
 NYR @ VGK UNDER 1.5 best +120 48.5% 42.5% +6.7% 1 W +1.20 —
2025-01-11
Alexis Lafrenière
 NYR @ VGK UNDER 2.5 best +110 51.0% 44.6% +7.1% 0 W +1.10 —
2025-01-11
Artemi Panarin
 NYR @ VGK UNDER 3.5 best -150 63.9% 55.8% +6.5% 1 W +0.67 —
2025-01-11
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR @ VGK UNDER 2.5 best -120 60.3% 51.0% +10.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Bo Horvat
 NYI @ UTA UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.3% 44.6% +5.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Filip Forsberg
 NSH vs WSH UNDER 3.5 best -115 56.8% 50.0% +6.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH @ NSH UNDER 3.5 best -125 60.9% 52.0% +9.7% 2 W +0.80 —
2025-01-11
Evan Bouchard
 EDM @ CHI UNDER 2.5 best +130 47.7% 40.9% +9.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Matvei Michkov
 PHI vs ANA UNDER 2.5 best -140 61.6% 54.5% +5.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ PHI UNDER 1.5 best +140 46.0% 38.9% +10.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Jack Hughes
 NJD vs TBL UNDER 3.5 best +115 49.3% 43.7% +5.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Quinn Hughes
 VAN @ TOR UNDER 2.5 best +100 52.7% 46.9% +5.4% 0 W +1.00 —
2025-01-11
Auston Matthews
 TOR vs VAN UNDER 3.5 best +110 51.3% 44.6% +7.8% 2 W +1.10 —
2025-01-11
Adam Fox
 NYR @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.4% +3.8% 0 W +1.25 —
2025-01-11
Ivan Barbashev
 VGK vs NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +105 51.0% 45.9% +4.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Vincent Trocheck
 NYR @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.1% 46.9% +4.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Yegor Sharangovich
 CGY vs LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.6% 38.2% +4.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Rasmus Andersson
 CGY vs LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.4% 41.4% +4.4% 0 W +1.25 —
2025-01-11
MacKenzie Weegar
 CGY vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.3% 57.2% +2.5% 1 W +0.65 —
2025-01-11
Mikael Backlund
 CGY vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.2% 51.0% +3.0% 2 W +0.83 —
2025-01-11
Clayton Keller
 UTA vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.2% 43.7% +3.7% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-01-11
Nick Bjugstad
 UTA vs NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.2% 41.7% +4.0% 0 W +1.25 —
2025-01-11
Jakob Chychrun
 WSH @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -140 61.1% 54.5% +4.8% 2 W +0.71 —
2025-01-11
Jordan Kyrou
 STL vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.3% 39.8% +4.0% 0 W +1.35 —
2025-01-11
Viktor Arvidsson
 EDM @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.9% 46.9% +3.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Mattias Ekholm
 EDM @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.4% 57.2% +2.6% 0 W +0.65 —
2025-01-11
Morgan Frost
 PHI vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.6% +4.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Owen Tippett
 PHI vs ANA UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.9% 54.5% +4.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Travis Konecny
 PHI vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.0% 40.9% +3.4% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-01-11
Scott Laughton
 PHI vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.6% +2.2% 0 W +1.30 —
2025-01-11
Timo Meier
 NJD vs TBL UNDER 3.5 lean -170 64.6% 59.2% +2.6% 2 W +0.59 —
2025-01-11
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD vs TBL UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.0% 46.9% +4.1% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-01-11
Victor Hedman
 TBL @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -175 65.5% 59.4% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Logan Stankoven
 DAL @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.5% 54.5% +2.0% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Thomas Harley
 DAL @ MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.6% 40.6% +5.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Roope Hintz
 DAL @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.6% 56.7% +3.0% 2 W +0.65 —
2025-01-11
Mitch Marner
 TOR vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.1% 53.1% +2.9% 2 W +0.77 —
2025-01-11
Brady Tkachuk
 OTT @ PIT UNDER 3.5 lean +115 48.5% 43.7% +4.2% 2 W +1.15 —
2025-01-11
Erik Karlsson
 PIT vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -135 58.7% 53.5% +2.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Jack Quinn
 BUF vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -200 68.4% 62.5% +2.5% 1 W +0.50 —
2025-01-11
Vince Dunn
 SEA @ BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.0% 37.5% +2.5% 1 W +1.50 —
2025-01-11
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA vs BOS UNDER 3.5 lean -180 65.8% 60.2% +2.4% 3 W +0.56 —
2025-01-11
Gustav Forsling
 FLA vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -140 61.2% 54.5% +5.0% 2 W +0.71 —
2025-01-11
David Pastrnak
 BOS @ FLA UNDER 3.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.6% +3.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-11
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.7% 42.2% +2.8% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-01-10
Seth Jarvis
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best -120 57.6% 51.0% +5.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-10
Quinn Hughes
 VAN @ CAR UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.1% 50.0% +6.7% 1 W +0.87 —
2025-01-10
Martin Necas
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best -110 56.6% 49.0% +8.1% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-01-10
Jack Roslovic
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 1.5 best +140 45.2% 39.1% +8.5% 1 W +1.40 —
2025-01-10
Sebastian Aho
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best +105 53.8% 45.5% +10.3% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-01-10
Dmitry Orlov
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 1.5 best +115 50.9% 43.4% +9.4% 0 W +1.15 —
2025-01-10
Brent Burns
 CAR vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best -155 65.8% 56.7% +8.2% 0 W +0.65 —
2025-01-10
Jakob Chychrun
 WSH vs MTL UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.2% 50.0% +6.9% 1 W +0.87 —
2025-01-10
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs MTL UNDER 3.5 best -110 55.3% 48.5% +5.5% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-01-09
Bo Horvat
 NYI @ VGK UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.9% 45.5% +6.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Cale Makar
 COL @ MIN UNDER 3.5 best -150 64.6% 56.3% +7.7% 1 W +0.67 —
2025-01-09
Jack Roslovic
 CAR vs TOR UNDER 1.5 best +130 45.8% 40.6% +5.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Sebastian Aho
 CAR vs TOR UNDER 2.5 best +110 51.4% 44.6% +7.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Dmitry Orlov
 CAR vs TOR UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.8% 40.6% +7.7% 0 W +1.30 —
2025-01-09
Brent Burns
 CAR vs TOR UNDER 2.5 best -135 62.4% 54.1% +8.7% 1 W +0.74 —
2025-01-09
Logan Stankoven
 DAL @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best -155 64.1% 56.7% +5.4% 2 W +0.65 —
2025-01-09
Thomas Harley
 DAL @ PHI UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.1% 40.6% +6.0% 0 W +1.30 —
2025-01-09
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best -125 60.0% 52.0% +8.0% 0 W +0.80 —
2025-01-09
Owen Tippett
 PHI vs DAL UNDER 2.5 best +125 48.0% 41.7% +8.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Will Cuylle
 NYR vs NJD UNDER 1.5 best +100 52.5% 46.9% +5.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR vs NJD UNDER 2.5 best -135 61.8% 53.5% +7.5% 2 W +0.74 —
2025-01-09
Ross Colton
 COL @ MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.3% 37.5% +3.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Devon Toews
 COL @ MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.0% 37.5% +2.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Artturi Lehkonen
 COL @ MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -130 57.9% 53.1% +2.4% 2 W +0.77 —
2025-01-09
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean -200 69.3% 62.5% +3.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Frank Vatrano
 ANA @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.9% +2.7% 0 W +1.30 —
2025-01-09
Adam Fantilli
 CBJ vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -170 65.9% 59.2% +4.7% 1 W +0.59 —
2025-01-09
Jared McCann
 SEA @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.3% 48.0% +2.0% 2 W +0.95 —
2025-01-09
Seth Jarvis
 CAR vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.9% 51.0% +2.5% 2 W +0.83 —
2025-01-09
Martin Necas
 CAR vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.3% 49.0% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Auston Matthews
 TOR @ CAR UNDER 3.5 lean -115 54.7% 50.0% +2.3% 2 W +0.87 —
2025-01-09
Jordan Martinook
 CAR vs TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +110 48.9% 44.6% +2.8% 0 W +1.10 —
2025-01-09
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.0% 41.7% +3.6% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Matvei Michkov
 PHI vs DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.5% 40.6% +4.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Tyson Foerster
 PHI vs DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.1% 43.7% +3.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Roope Hintz
 DAL @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -170 65.6% 58.6% +4.2% 2 W +0.59 —
2025-01-09
Jack Hughes
 NJD @ NYR UNDER 4.5 lean -170 65.0% 58.6% +3.3% 3 W +0.59 —
2025-01-09
Artemi Panarin
 NYR vs NJD UNDER 3.5 lean -170 65.5% 58.6% +4.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-09
Timo Meier
 NJD @ NYR UNDER 3.5 lean -170 64.6% 58.6% +2.5% 2 W +0.59 —
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