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SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-01-04
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -145 61.3% 55.4% +3.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04
Roope Hintz
 DAL vs UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.8% 54.5% +4.2% 1 W +0.71 —
2025-01-04
Rasmus Andersson
 CGY vs NSH UNDER 1.5 lean +150 40.9% 37.5% +2.3% 1 W +1.50 —
2025-01-04
Filip Forsberg
 NSH @ CGY UNDER 3.5 lean -125 57.9% 52.0% +4.1% 3 W +0.80 —
2025-01-04
Roman Josi
 NSH @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.3% 40.9% +4.2% 2 W +1.30 —
2025-01-04
Cale Makar
 COL vs MTL UNDER 3.5 lean -145 60.6% 55.4% +2.4% 1 W +0.69 —
2025-01-04
Dylan Holloway
 STL @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.2% 54.5% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04
Robert Thomas
 STL @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.2% 57.5% +2.8% 1 W +0.63 —
2025-01-04
Jordan Kyrou
 STL @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.7% +2.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04
Zach Werenski
 CBJ vs STL UNDER 3.5 lean -115 54.6% 50.0% +2.0% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs MIN UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.4% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-01-04
Martin Necas
 CAR vs MIN UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.9% 45.5% +4.3% 0 W +1.05 —
2025-01-04
Jack Roslovic
 CAR vs MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.6% +4.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04
Morgan Geekie
 BOS @ TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.6% 40.9% +2.5% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-01-04
Auston Matthews
 TOR vs BOS UNDER 3.5 lean +120 47.4% 42.5% +4.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04
Elias Lindholm
 BOS @ TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.9% 38.2% +2.7% 1 W +1.45 —
2025-01-04
Brad Marchand
 BOS @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.3% 49.0% +3.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04
William Eklund
 SJS vs NJD UNDER 1.5 lean -110 53.9% 49.0% +2.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04
Jack Hughes
 NJD @ SJS UNDER 3.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.7% +3.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04
Stefan Noesen
 NJD @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -170 65.6% 59.2% +4.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.0% 43.7% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-04
Jakob Chychrun
 WSH vs NYR UNDER 2.5 lean -120 57.1% 51.0% +4.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-03
Filip Forsberg
 NSH @ VAN UNDER 3.5 best -120 58.5% 51.0% +7.2% 1 W +0.83 —
2025-01-03
Roman Josi
 NSH @ VAN UNDER 3.5 best -165 66.5% 58.4% +6.8% 2 W +0.61 —
2025-01-03
Mattias Ekholm
 EDM vs ANA UNDER 2.5 best -120 59.6% 51.0% +9.3% 1 W +0.83 —
2025-01-03
Brady Tkachuk
 OTT @ STL UNDER 3.5 best +115 49.0% 43.4% +5.4% 3 W +1.15 —
2025-01-03
Kiefer Sherwood
 VAN vs NSH UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.6% 41.4% +4.8% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-03
Brady Skjei
 NSH @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.1% 38.2% +3.1% 1 W +1.45 —
2025-01-03
Jonathan Marchessault
 NSH @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.2% 42.5% +3.8% 0 W +1.20 —
2025-01-03
Ryan O'Reilly
 NSH @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.4% 42.5% +2.1% 0 W +1.20 —
2025-01-03
Dylan Holloway
 STL vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -145 61.4% 55.4% +3.7% 2 W +0.69 —
2025-01-03
Shane Pinto
 OTT @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean -190 68.3% 61.6% +4.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-03
Jordan Kyrou
 STL vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.8% 43.7% +2.8% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-01-03
Aaron Ekblad
 FLA vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -160 64.5% 57.5% +4.8% 1 W +0.63 —
2025-01-02
Nikita Kucherov
 TBL @ SJS UNDER 3.5 best -120 58.4% 51.0% +7.0% 3 W +0.83 —
2025-01-02
Eeli Tolvanen
 SEA vs VAN UNDER 1.5 best +105 51.4% 45.9% +5.4% 0 W +1.05 —
2025-01-02
Victor Olofsson
 VGK vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best -165 66.0% 58.4% +6.0% 0 W +0.61 —
2025-01-02
William Karlsson
 VGK vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best -140 61.3% 54.5% +5.1% 2 W +0.71 —
2025-01-02
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL vs OTT UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.5% 40.9% +6.9% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-01-02
Logan Stankoven
 DAL vs OTT UNDER 2.5 best -125 59.2% 52.0% +6.6% 0 W +0.80 —
2025-01-02
Jake Sanderson
 OTT @ DAL UNDER 1.5 best +135 44.7% 39.8% +5.0% 0 W +1.35 —
2025-01-02
Thomas Harley
 DAL vs OTT UNDER 1.5 best +130 45.7% 40.6% +5.2% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-01-02
Evgenii Dadonov
 DAL vs OTT UNDER 1.5 best +105 51.4% 45.5% +5.3% 0 W +1.05 —
2025-01-02
John Tavares
 TOR @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.0% 40.6% +5.7% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-01-02
Jakob Chychrun
 WSH vs MIN UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.0% 50.0% +6.6% 2 W +0.87 —
2025-01-02
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs MIN UNDER 3.5 best -125 59.4% 52.0% +6.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Chris Kreider
 NYR vs BOS UNDER 2.5 best -110 55.1% 49.0% +5.2% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-01-02
Brent Burns
 CAR @ FLA UNDER 2.5 best -160 67.2% 57.5% +9.2% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Victor Hedman
 TBL @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.1% 53.5% +2.8% 1 W +0.74 —
2025-01-02
Matvei Michkov
 PHI @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.2% +2.5% 1 W +1.20 —
2025-01-02
Owen Tippett
 PHI @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.7% 45.5% +3.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Noah Hanifin
 VGK vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.5% +2.3% 1 W +1.20 —
2025-01-02
Shea Theodore
 VGK vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -195 68.4% 61.8% +3.5% 0 W +0.51 —
2025-01-02
Alex Pietrangelo
 VGK vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.8% +4.3% 0 W +1.35 —
2025-01-02
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.8% 50.0% +4.3% 2 W +0.87 —
2025-01-02
MacKenzie Weegar
 CGY vs UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -145 60.6% 55.4% +2.4% 1 W +0.69 —
2025-01-02
Jiri Kulich
 BUF @ COL UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.4% 41.7% +4.4% 1 W +1.25 —
2025-01-02
Jack Quinn
 BUF @ COL UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.2% 41.4% +4.0% 0 W +1.25 —
2025-01-02
Neal Pionk
 WPG vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.6% 43.7% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Shane Pinto
 OTT @ DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.2% +3.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Brady Tkachuk
 OTT @ DAL UNDER 3.5 lean -115 55.3% 50.0% +3.3% 2 W +0.87 —
2025-01-02
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -120 57.1% 51.0% +4.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Roope Hintz
 DAL vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -145 61.4% 55.4% +3.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Matt Duchene
 DAL vs OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.8% 38.0% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Noah Dobson
 NYI vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.9% 49.0% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Alex DeBrincat
 DET @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.9% +2.6% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-01-02
Matt Boldy
 MIN @ WSH UNDER 3.5 lean -155 63.6% 56.7% +4.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Will Cuylle
 NYR vs BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.1% 44.6% +3.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
David Pastrnak
 BOS @ NYR UNDER 3.5 lean +115 48.8% 43.4% +4.9% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.3% 60.9% +2.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Vincent Trocheck
 NYR vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.8% 48.5% +2.7% 2 W +0.91 —
2025-01-02
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.0% 49.0% +3.0% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-01-02
Martin Necas
 CAR @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.0% 50.0% +2.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-02
Jack Roslovic
 CAR @ FLA UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.5% +3.2% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-01-02
Sebastian Aho
 CAR @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.9% 47.5% +3.3% 2 W +0.95 —
2025-01-02
Aaron Ekblad
 FLA vs CAR UNDER 2.5 lean -200 69.1% 62.5% +3.7% 1 W +0.50 —
2025-01-01
Jack Hughes
 NJD @ LAK UNDER 3.5 best -110 55.7% 49.0% +6.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-01
Timo Meier
 NJD @ LAK UNDER 2.5 best +100 54.6% 46.9% +9.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-01
Stefan Noesen
 NJD @ LAK UNDER 1.5 best +150 46.1% 37.5% +15.3% 0 W +1.50 —
2025-01-01
Alex Laferriere
 LAK vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.9% 54.5% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-01
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.1% 52.5% +2.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31
Stefan Noesen
 NJD @ ANA UNDER 2.5 best -140 61.8% 54.5% +6.0% 1 W +0.71 —
2024-12-31
Filip Forsberg
 NSH @ MIN UNDER 3.5 best -125 58.5% 52.0% +5.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31
Jack Roslovic
 CAR @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.3% 40.9% +6.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31
Sebastian Aho
 CAR @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.6% 44.6% +6.2% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31
Dmitry Orlov
 CAR @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 best +105 51.4% 45.2% +5.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31
Brent Burns
 CAR @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 best -130 62.5% 53.1% +10.5% 2 W +0.77 —
2024-12-31
Patrik Laine
 MTL @ VGK UNDER 2.5 best -115 60.8% 50.0% +13.7% 0 W +0.87 —
2024-12-31
Jakob Chychrun
 WSH vs BOS UNDER 2.5 best -130 60.3% 53.1% +6.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31
David Pastrnak
 BOS @ WSH UNDER 3.5 best +105 52.0% 45.9% +6.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs BOS UNDER 3.5 best -140 62.1% 54.5% +6.4% 3 W +0.71 —
2024-12-31
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -145 61.4% 54.8% +3.8% 2 W +0.69 —
2024-12-31
Mattias Ekholm
 EDM vs UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -160 64.6% 57.5% +5.0% 2 W +0.63 —
2024-12-31
Matt Coronato
 CGY vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.9% 54.1% +4.2% 2 W +0.74 —
2024-12-31
Rasmus Andersson
 CGY vs VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.5% 40.6% +4.7% 1 W +1.30 —
2024-12-31
MacKenzie Weegar
 CGY vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -150 62.4% 55.8% +3.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31
Blake Coleman
 CGY vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.2% 53.5% +3.1% 1 W +0.74 —
2024-12-31
Matvei Michkov
 PHI @ SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.0% 37.5% +2.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31
Owen Tippett
 PHI @ SJS UNDER 3.5 lean -170 65.6% 59.2% +4.1% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31
Jack Hughes
 NJD @ ANA UNDER 4.5 lean -160 63.3% 57.5% +2.9% 6 L -1.00 —
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