← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2024-12-12 FLA @ VAN UNDER 2.5 best +135 44.8% 39.8% +5.3% 1 W +1.35 —
2024-12-12 UTA @ COL UNDER 1.5 best +130 45.9% 40.6% +5.7% 0 W +1.30 —
2024-12-12 MIN vs EDM UNDER 3.5 best -105 57.8% 48.0% +12.9% 1 W +0.95 —
2024-12-12 MIN vs EDM UNDER 1.5 best +115 49.1% 43.7% +5.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 DAL vs NSH UNDER 2.5 best -105 54.3% 48.0% +5.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 NSH @ DAL UNDER 3.5 best +115 53.7% 43.4% +15.5% 2 W +1.15 —
2024-12-12 WSH @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 best -105 56.0% 48.0% +9.2% 2 W +0.95 —
2024-12-12 DET @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.4% 44.6% +5.9% 1 W +1.10 —
2024-12-12 NJD vs LAK UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.1% 42.5% +5.7% 2 W +1.20 —
2024-12-12 FLA @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.9% +2.1% 0 W +1.00 —
2024-12-12 UTA @ COL UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.4% 54.5% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 COL vs UTA UNDER 3.5 lean -155 63.5% 57.2% +4.4% 1 W +0.65 —
2024-12-12 MIN vs EDM UNDER 3.5 lean -120 56.8% 51.0% +4.2% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 DAL vs NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.3% 50.0% +3.5% 0 W +0.87 —
2024-12-12 DAL vs NSH UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.6% 39.6% +4.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 DAL vs NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -145 60.9% 55.4% +2.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 NSH @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.9% 57.5% +3.9% 2 W +0.63 —
2024-12-12 NSH @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.2% 43.7% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 NSH @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -115 56.0% 50.0% +4.6% 0 W +0.87 —
2024-12-12 SJS @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.4% +2.7% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 SJS @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.2% 57.2% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 DET @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -165 63.7% 58.4% +2.2% 1 W +0.61 —
2024-12-12 DET @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.9% 49.0% +4.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 NJD vs LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.4% +2.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 MTL vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.6% 50.0% +2.0% 1 W +0.87 —
2024-12-12 ANA @ TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.6% 39.8% +4.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-12 ANA @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.8% 51.0% +2.2% 2 W +0.83 —
2024-12-11 ANA @ OTT UNDER 1.5 best +120 48.3% 42.8% +6.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-11 ANA @ OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.6% 39.6% +4.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-11 OTT vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +100 52.0% 46.5% +3.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-11 NYR @ BUF UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.5% 52.0% +3.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-10 FLA @ SEA UNDER 2.5 best +115 48.9% 43.7% +5.0% 1 W +1.15 —
2024-12-10 FLA @ SEA UNDER 1.5 best +140 45.9% 38.9% +10.2% 1 W +1.40 —
2024-12-10 MIN @ UTA UNDER 3.5 best -110 56.4% 49.0% +7.7% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-10 MIN @ UTA UNDER 3.5 best +105 52.5% 45.5% +7.7% 3 W +1.05 —
2024-12-10 NSH vs CGY UNDER 3.5 best +120 48.9% 42.5% +7.7% 3 W +1.20 —
2024-12-10 FLA @ SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.5% 40.6% +4.7% 9 L -1.00 —
2024-12-10 FLA @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.8% +2.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-10 STL @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.7% 38.9% +4.8% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-10 VAN vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.8% 44.6% +4.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-10 VAN vs STL UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.7% +3.0% 1 W +1.25 —
2024-12-10 STL @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.3% 44.3% +3.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-10 UTA vs MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.5% 46.5% +3.0% 0 W +1.00 —
2024-12-10 UTA vs MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.8% 38.2% +2.4% 0 W +1.45 —
2024-12-10 TBL @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -175 65.3% 59.4% +2.7% 2 W +0.57 —
2024-12-10 LAK @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.5% 52.0% +3.6% 1 W +0.80 —
2024-12-10 CBJ vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -195 68.0% 61.8% +2.9% 1 W +0.51 —
2024-12-10 SJS @ CAR UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.7% 38.2% +4.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-10 COL @ PIT UNDER 3.5 lean -155 62.2% 56.7% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-10 TOR @ NJD UNDER 3.5 lean +125 46.5% 41.4% +4.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-10 NJD vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.5% 39.8% +4.6% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-09 ANA @ MTL UNDER 2.5 best -175 67.2% 59.4% +5.7% 0 W +0.57 —
2024-12-09 MTL vs ANA UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.5% 42.5% +6.6% 2 W +1.20 —
2024-12-09 NYR vs CHI UNDER 2.5 best +105 54.0% 45.5% +10.6% 2 W +1.05 —
2024-12-09 BUF vs DET UNDER 3.5 best +100 53.1% 46.5% +6.2% 1 W +1.00 —
2024-12-09 ANA @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -180 65.7% 60.2% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-09 NYR vs CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.6% 37.5% +4.0% 0 W +1.50 —
2024-12-09 NYR vs CHI UNDER 3.5 lean -120 57.1% 51.0% +4.8% 7 L -1.00 —
2024-12-09 NYR vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.4% +2.1% 0 W +1.15 —
2024-12-09 NYR vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.6% 43.4% +4.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-08 COL @ NJD UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.4% 39.8% +6.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-08 NJD vs COL UNDER 2.5 best +120 47.7% 42.5% +5.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-08 NJD vs COL UNDER 2.5 best -180 67.7% 60.2% +5.3% 1 W +0.56 —
2024-12-08 OTT vs NYI UNDER 3.5 best +130 47.3% 40.9% +8.7% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-08 NYR vs SEA UNDER 3.5 best -145 62.3% 55.4% +5.3% 2 W +0.69 —
2024-12-08 DAL vs CGY UNDER 2.5 lean -120 57.1% 51.0% +4.8% 2 W +0.83 —
2024-12-08 DAL vs CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.0% 41.4% +3.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-08 CGY @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.2% 56.3% +2.1% 1 W +0.67 —
2024-12-08 UTA @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.7% 43.7% +4.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-08 CBJ @ WPG UNDER 2.5 lean -200 68.1% 62.5% +2.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-08 TBL @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -165 64.6% 58.4% +3.7% 2 W +0.61 —
2024-12-08 SEA @ NYR UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.2% +3.3% 1 W +1.20 —
2024-12-08 NYR vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -120 57.0% 51.0% +4.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 MIN @ LAK UNDER 3.5 best -130 62.5% 53.1% +10.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 MIN @ LAK UNDER 3.5 best -110 57.6% 49.0% +10.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 COL @ DET UNDER 2.5 best -115 56.6% 50.0% +5.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 NSH @ OTT UNDER 3.5 best +110 51.4% 44.3% +7.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 WSH @ MTL UNDER 2.5 best -120 57.6% 51.0% +5.6% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 WSH @ MTL UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.8% 50.0% +8.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 CAR @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best -110 56.2% 48.5% +7.3% 1 W +0.91 —
2024-12-07 CAR @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best +120 49.3% 42.2% +8.5% 7 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 CAR @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best +120 49.1% 42.5% +8.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 BUF vs UTA UNDER 3.5 best -105 54.8% 47.5% +6.9% 1 W +0.95 —
2024-12-07 BOS vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best -120 58.3% 51.0% +6.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 STL @ EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.3% 41.7% +4.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 LAK vs MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.1% 53.1% +2.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 TOR @ PIT UNDER 4.5 lean -155 62.1% 56.7% +2.1% 4 W +0.65 —
2024-12-07 PIT vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.0% 48.0% +3.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 PIT vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.2% 50.0% +3.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 COL @ DET UNDER 3.5 lean -150 61.8% 56.3% +3.1% 2 W +0.67 —
2024-12-07 COL @ DET OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.2% 1 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 NSH @ OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.9% +3.1% 1 W +1.00 —
2024-12-07 MTL vs WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.7% 50.0% +4.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 SJS @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.0% 46.5% +2.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 SJS @ FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -175 65.6% 59.4% +3.0% 1 W +0.57 —
2024-12-07 CAR @ NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.5% 42.5% +4.6% 0 W +1.20 —
2024-12-07 CAR @ NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.5% 38.9% +4.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 WPG @ CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +150 40.9% 37.5% +2.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 BUF vs UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.4% 40.6% +4.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-07 PHI @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.1% 45.5% +2.6% 0 W +1.05 —
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