← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2024-12-06 ANA vs MIN UNDER 2.5 best -160 66.8% 57.5% +8.5% 0 W +0.63 —
2024-12-06 ANA vs MIN UNDER 1.5 best +150 42.0% 37.5% +5.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-06 MIN @ ANA UNDER 3.5 best +115 50.8% 43.7% +9.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-06 MIN @ ANA UNDER 1.5 best +135 45.1% 39.8% +5.9% 1 W +1.35 —
2024-12-06 CBJ @ VAN UNDER 1.5 best +120 48.9% 42.5% +7.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-06 VAN vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.2% 40.6% +6.3% 1 W +1.30 —
2024-12-06 SEA @ NJD UNDER 2.5 best +100 53.0% 46.9% +5.9% 2 W +1.00 —
2024-12-06 SEA @ NJD UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.9% 43.7% +7.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-06 NJD vs SEA UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.2% 38.0% +5.8% 9 L -1.00 —
2024-12-06 WSH @ TOR UNDER 2.5 best -115 58.8% 50.0% +9.8% 0 W +0.87 —
2024-12-06 MIN @ ANA UNDER 4.5 lean -170 64.7% 59.2% +2.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-06 ANA vs MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.1% 37.5% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-06 DAL @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.5% +3.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-06 DAL @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.4% 53.1% +3.4% 2 W +0.77 —
2024-12-06 DAL @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.5% +2.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-06 CBJ @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.7% 38.2% +2.2% 1 W +1.45 —
2024-12-06 CBJ @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.3% 52.0% +3.2% 0 W +0.80 —
2024-12-06 VAN vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.6% 50.0% +2.1% 2 W +0.87 —
2024-12-06 PIT @ NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.6% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-06 NYR vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.6% 49.0% +2.3% 2 W +0.91 —
2024-12-06 SEA @ NJD UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.4% 40.6% +2.2% 0 W +1.30 —
2024-12-05 SEA @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.3% 45.5% +5.1% 1 W +1.05 —
2024-12-05 SEA @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best +130 48.0% 40.9% +10.5% 2 W +1.30 —
2024-12-05 CAR vs COL UNDER 1.5 best +140 44.4% 38.9% +6.4% 1 W +1.40 —
2024-12-05 FLA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best +130 47.3% 40.6% +8.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-05 FLA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best -110 55.4% 49.0% +5.8% 1 W +0.91 —
2024-12-05 FLA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best +100 52.9% 46.5% +5.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-05 FLA @ PHI UNDER 1.5 best +145 46.5% 38.2% +14.0% 1 W +1.45 —
2024-12-05 BUF vs WPG UNDER 3.5 best -105 53.9% 48.0% +5.3% 3 W +0.95 —
2024-12-05 CBJ @ EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +100 52.2% 46.5% +4.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-05 CGY vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.4% 48.0% +2.3% 0 W +0.95 —
2024-12-05 CGY vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean -180 65.7% 60.2% +2.2% 0 W +0.56 —
2024-12-05 SEA @ NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.0% 38.2% +2.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-05 SEA @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.6% 57.5% +3.4% 2 W +0.63 —
2024-12-05 CAR vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.2% 54.1% +3.1% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-05 CAR vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-05 CAR vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.3% 43.7% +3.8% 2 W +1.15 —
2024-12-05 CAR vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.4% 46.5% +2.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-05 FLA @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.6% 43.4% +2.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-05 FLA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.1% 53.1% +2.7% 2 W +0.77 —
2024-12-05 FLA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.3% 42.5% +4.0% 2 W +1.20 —
2024-12-05 SJS @ TBL UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.0% 57.2% +2.0% 2 W +0.65 —
2024-12-05 TBL vs SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.2% 50.0% +3.2% 1 W +0.87 —
2024-12-05 NSH @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.2% 45.9% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-04 ANA vs VGK UNDER 2.5 best -175 67.9% 59.4% +6.6% 0 W +0.57 —
2024-12-04 ANA vs VGK UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.3% 38.2% +6.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-04 LAK vs DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.4% 41.7% +2.1% 1 W +1.25 —
2024-12-04 DAL @ LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.6% 37.5% +4.0% 1 W +1.50 —
2024-12-04 VGK @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.5% +3.1% 2 W +1.20 —
2024-12-04 BOS @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.9% 50.0% +4.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-04 NSH @ TOR UNDER 3.5 lean -105 53.4% 48.0% +4.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 EDM @ VGK UNDER 2.5 best +100 53.0% 46.5% +6.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 EDM @ VGK UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.9% 43.4% +7.2% 1 W +1.15 —
2024-12-03 VAN @ MIN UNDER 2.5 best +125 49.6% 41.7% +11.5% 2 W +1.25 —
2024-12-03 MIN vs VAN UNDER 3.5 best +105 52.3% 45.5% +7.2% 3 W +1.05 —
2024-12-03 CAR vs SEA UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.8% 43.7% +7.0% 1 W +1.15 —
2024-12-03 CAR vs SEA UNDER 1.5 best +120 47.7% 42.5% +5.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 WSH vs SJS UNDER 2.5 best -110 55.0% 49.0% +5.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 PIT vs FLA UNDER 1.5 best +120 48.6% 42.5% +6.9% 1 W +1.20 —
2024-12-03 BUF vs COL UNDER 3.5 best -115 58.2% 50.0% +8.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 VGK vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.7% 49.0% +2.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 EDM @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.7% 57.5% +3.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 EDM @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.4% 56.7% +2.7% 2 W +0.65 —
2024-12-03 EDM @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.0% 60.2% +2.6% 1 W +0.56 —
2024-12-03 CBJ @ CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.0% 42.5% +3.4% 1 W +1.20 —
2024-12-03 CGY vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.7% 43.7% +4.7% 1 W +1.15 —
2024-12-03 CGY vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.8% 38.2% +2.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 STL @ WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.5% +2.4% 7 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 MIN vs VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -135 59.4% 54.1% +3.4% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 VAN @ MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.4% 41.7% +4.4% 1 W +1.25 —
2024-12-03 VAN @ MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -140 60.1% 54.5% +3.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 CAR vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.0% 42.8% +3.3% 1 W +1.20 —
2024-12-03 SEA @ CAR UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.3% 48.0% +4.1% 0 W +0.95 —
2024-12-03 SEA @ CAR UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.2% 49.0% +3.5% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 CAR vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -185 67.4% 60.4% +3.9% 1 W +0.54 —
2024-12-03 WSH vs SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.7% 47.5% +3.0% 2 W +0.95 —
2024-12-03 FLA @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.4% 41.7% +2.1% 7 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 FLA @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.8% 43.4% +2.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 FLA @ PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.8% +4.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 COL @ BUF UNDER 3.5 lean -155 63.3% 56.7% +4.2% 1 W +0.65 —
2024-12-03 DET @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.0% 57.5% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-03 DET @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.0% 40.9% +3.4% 1 W +1.30 —
2024-12-03 BOS vs DET UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.7% 46.9% +3.3% 0 W +1.00 —
2024-12-02 DAL @ UTA UNDER 2.5 best -145 62.2% 55.4% +5.1% 1 W +0.69 —
2024-12-02 UTA vs DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.2% 52.0% +2.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-02 DAL @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -135 58.6% 53.5% +2.0% 0 W +0.74 —
2024-12-02 UTA vs DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.6% 41.7% +4.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-02 DAL @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -155 63.0% 57.2% +3.7% 2 W +0.65 —
2024-12-02 DAL @ UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.8% +4.4% 1 W +1.35 —
2024-12-02 NYR vs NJD UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.7% 41.4% +2.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-02 NJD @ NYR UNDER 2.5 lean -175 65.3% 59.4% +2.6% 1 W +0.57 —
2024-12-01 ANA vs OTT UNDER 2.5 best -160 65.6% 57.5% +6.7% 0 W +0.63 —
2024-12-01 OTT @ ANA UNDER 1.5 best -105 55.7% 48.0% +8.7% 1 W +0.95 —
2024-12-01 CBJ @ CHI UNDER 1.5 best +140 45.7% 39.1% +9.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-01 VAN @ DET UNDER 2.5 best +125 49.1% 41.7% +10.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-01 ANA vs OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.4% 41.7% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-01 OTT @ ANA UNDER 3.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.7% +3.7% 12 L -1.00 —
2024-12-01 OTT @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -135 60.0% 54.1% +4.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-01 CBJ @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.2% 45.5% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-01 BOS vs MTL UNDER 3.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.9% +2.7% 5 L -1.00 —
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